This article is edited from CICC "Niu Technologies: winning from the backwardness, being the leader of high-end lithium battery two-wheeler".

First, at the industry level, the new GB drives electric two-wheelers to restart high growth

Two-wheeled vehicles are an important part of travel tools. According to the annual production scale, the domestic production and sales scale of two-wheeled vehicles is close to 60 million in 2019, of which about 3000-35 million electric vehicles are two-wheeled vehicles, and the electrified permeability has reached a high level of 80%.

From the point of view of the growth rate, the rapid growth period of domestic electric bicycles is from 2000 to 2012, and then enter the stock era:

But the industry is in 2018.In # there was a major variable-the new national standard (the implementation standard of the new national standard for electric vehicles, 2018.5.17Publish)This policy is expected to accelerate stock elimination in the next 2-3 years, driving electric two-wheelers to restart high growth.

Preliminary estimation of CICCThe elimination of non-standard cars will drive demand for about 60 million vehicles to be replaced in advance, driving industry sales to 55 million in 2022, nearly doubling from the current level.

For enterprises, the resumption of high growth in the industry is undoubtedly a rare development opportunity, and the above is also the background that CICC is optimistic about the future development of Mavericks.。

Second, the late-start wins, the Mavericks lead the middle and high-end lithium electricity market

Niu Technologies is a member of Gao Da to enter the electric two-wheeler market, and has now established a firm foothold in the domestic middle and high-end lithium battery market.。

Niu Technologies was founded in 2014 and launched its first electric car, NQi, in 2015. There were 1050 stores in China at the end of 2019, and more than 1 million electric cars were sold worldwide.

The company's electric two-wheeler sales increased from 85000 in 2016 to 421000 in 2019, a compound growth rate of 70.5%:

In terms of finance, Mavericks' revenue has increased rapidly with sales in recent years, and horizontal comparison of peers has the advantages of high profit margin, light assets and high-quality cash flow.。

Mavericks' income increases rapidly with sales, 2020H1 is disturbed by the epidemic, and the growth rate slows down:

In 2019, Mavericks' operating profit margin reached a relatively steady state, and its profitability was much higher than the industry average:

By horizontal comparison, the Mavericks also have a lighter asset model, limited capital expenditure and small depreciation and amortization of bicycles:

Why, as a new entrant, Mavericks can quickly stand firm in the middle and high-end lithium battery market?CICC analyzes that this benefits from the Mavericks' core competitiveness, including:

1) Product introduction from top to bottom, high-flying, accurate marketing

2) original design and core technology enabling intelligence + networking

2) APP application deepens the attributes of social circle layer

3) gradual channel layout and strong management and control

4) the international founder team and the brand tone complement each other.

Mavericks currently have four major N/M/U/G electric two-wheeler product lines, covering a product matrix of 2500-10,000 yuan:

The above capabilities make Mavericks' products sell much higher than other leading domestic manufacturers, and high product prices help it open up profit margins and gradually shape high-end brands:

III. Prospect: the Mavericks are about to enter a period of explosive performance.

Based on the outlook of the domestic and foreign electric two-wheeler industry, as well as the understanding of Mavericks' core competitiveness, CICC believes that the company is still in the stage of rapid growth.And its annual sales are expected to grow from 420000 in 2019 to 2.15 million in 2022, with a CAGR of 72%.

First, the domestic marketCICC expects the domestic market to gradually enter a non-standard car replacement period from the second half of 2021, and drive industry sales to 55 million in 2022, during which Mavericks' domestic sales are expected to grow from 390000 to 1.94 million.

In overseas marketsCICC expects calf sales to increase from 30, 000 in 2019 to 210000 in 2022, and total global sales to 2.15 million from 420000 in 2019.

In terms of performance, CICC expects Mavericks' operating income from 2020 to 2022 to be 2.89 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan and 8.88 billion yuan respectively, the net profit of GAAP is 220 million yuan, 500 million yuan and 930 million yuan, and CAGR reaches 106%.

In terms of valuation, CICC made reference to 2.Dimensions：

1) in the traditional electric two-wheeler industry, Hong Kong listed company Yadi and A-share listed company Xinri correspond to 27.2Maple 20.7 times of 2021 respectively. By contrast, Mavericks have higher growth space, better competitive pattern and stronger premium ability, so their valuation should enjoy a premium.

2) small household appliances and consumer electronics companies: they are comparable in terms of consumer attributes, unit prices and service life. The relevant listed companies, including Xiaoxiong Electric Appliances, Supor, Jiuyang shares and Kovos, etc., correspond to an average of 39.5 times of Pmax E in 2021.

Based on the above considerations, CICC believes that the reasonable valuation of the Mavericks corresponds to 30%.Doubling PBG EFor the first time, covering the rating of outperforming industries。