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香港中旅(00308.HK):预计2018年经营性利润保持增长 预期已经见底

China Travel Service (00308.HK): Expectations that operating profit will continue to grow in 2018 have bottomed out

中金公司 ·  Mar 1, 2019 00:00  · Researches

It is forecast that operating profits will continue to grow in 2018.

The 19-year net profit forecast for 2018xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx / 2018xxxxxxxxxx 2) the company's operating profit in 2017 is HK $550 million (excluding HK $560 million from the sale of balls). It is expected that the company's operating profit will continue to grow in 2018.

Pay attention to the main points

The share price of 2H18 has fallen sharply, mainly due to the following reasons: 1) against the background of reduced ticket prices in state-owned scenic spots, ticket prices in Wuzhen, Huangshan, Emei Mountain and other key scenic spots have all dropped by 8-20%. The company's Songshan Shaolin Temple Scenic spot tickets have been reduced from 100 yuan to 80 yuan since September 20, 18, which is expected to reduce annual income by about 50 million yuan in the future. 2) due to the influence of environmental protection policy, some scenic spots in Shapotou Scenic spot have been cancelled. 3) the market expectation for the sale of Mong Kok property by the company in 2018 has not been realized.

Expectations bottomed out and began to rebound: 1) the company's core theme park business continued to maintain a steady growth trend unaffected by the economy. 2) although the leisure and holiday scenic spots invested by the company have heavy assets and average profits, the tourism real estate developed by Evergrande in Zhuhai has brought benefits since 2018. At present, there is only one phase of development, with a land area of only 1x4. The performance will continue to be released in the future. In addition, the group entrusts the company to operate the group real estate business, which will not only bring additional management fees, but also enhance the company's ability to develop real estate. 3) based on the above judgment, we expect the company to adjust fully and the current market expectation is low. The company's operating performance is expected to overcome the negative impact of ticket reduction in natural scenic spots and continue to maintain steady growth.

Expectation of asset sale: although the expectation of the company to sell assets in 2018 failed, but with the current rich value of assets, the sale of some assets is more conducive to the realization of the value of the company. So from an expected point of view, asset sales are expected to improve in the future. The sale of uncompleted properties in Mong Kok in 2018 may be completed in 2019.

Valuation and suggestion

Regardless of the possible one-time large gains from the sale of assets, the net profit forecast for 2018 / 2019 will be reduced by 46 per cent to HK $700 million / HK $790 million, with a net profit forecast of HK $880 million for 2020. Considering that the company's share price has been fully adjusted, the recommended rating is maintained, with a target price of HK $3.09 (down 30 per cent), corresponding to a multiple of 2018/19/20eP/E in 24-21-19. The current share price is corresponding to 2018 Universe 19max 20e Pmax E on 18-16-14, with a 33% increase in the target price from the current share price.

Risk

The risk of the progress of asset sales; the uncertainty of the improvement of asset profitability in leisure and holiday scenic spots.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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