This report is read as follows:
The company achieved a net profit of 134 million yuan in the third quarter (return to the mother's net profit of 137 million). From the first to the third quarter, the net profit of home ownership was 305 million, an increase of 67.05% over the same period last year. The income from restructuring business accounted for 85% of the income of the AMC sector, and the performance growth was beautiful and steady.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating and lower the target price to 16.45 yuan per share: the company achieved a net profit of 305 million in the first and third quarters of 2018, an increase of 67.05% over the same period last year and entered the AMC performance release period in the fourth quarter, and the full-year results are expected to exceed expectations. However, considering that the refinery has not been put into production, we downgrade the profit assumption of refining and chemical business in 2019-2020, and adjust the forecast of return net profit in 2018-2020 to 409 (405) million, 597 (605) million and 8.82 (954) million, corresponding to EPS0.47 (0.47) yuan per share, 0.69 (0.69) yuan per share and 1.01 (1.09) per share (excluding rights). Lower the target price from 17.65 yuan to 16.45 yuan (excluding rights), corresponding to 35 times PE in 18 years and 23.84 times PE in 19 years, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Restructure the business to release profits, dispose of the business package to establish long-term development: in the third quarter, the combined income of restructuring business and management services business in the company's AMC sector reached 85%, and it is expected to achieve steady growth in the fourth quarter. The scale of asset management of the company further expanded in the third quarter. According to the announcement of June 28, 516 million principal and interest claims were acquired at a price of 418 million yuan, and the settlement of the business laid a good foundation for the future profit release, and the performance is expected to grow steadily in the medium and long term.
Business model innovation uses housing to repay debts, opening the imagination of excess returns: in the third quarter, the company's AMC business acquired 56.6739 million investment real estate in the form of real estate payments and cash purchases. Under this innovative disposal mode, the appreciation of investment real estate in the future is expected to become the excess return of AMC business and improve the rate of return of package collection and disposal business and acquisition and reorganization business.
Catalyst: accelerated release of AMC profits and sustained rapid growth for the whole year
Risk hint: the real estate market fell sharply; refineries failed to start production or profits fell short of expectations