What happened: the company recently released the 2018 interim report, with operating income of 361 million yuan, an increase of 49.24% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 169 million yuan, an increase of 178.39% compared with the same period last year. The net profit of EPS was 0.35 yuan, which was about 10% lower than that of the previous forecast (1.82-190 million yuan). At the same time, the company issued a forecast for the third quarter, which is expected to be 1.14-140 million yuan per quarter.
The company's AMC business is the main source of performance. The company realized a combined net profit of 166 million yuan in the first half of the year, of which the AMC business segment achieved a net profit of 169 million yuan, with a contribution of more than 100%, an increase of 141% over the same period last year. The company has gradually completed the framework of the AMC management platform and the national strategic layout of the asset management team, and the scope of business has expanded rapidly.
Light assets business is developing rapidly. By the end of the reporting period, the accumulated financial special assets held and managed by the company's AMC business totaled about 32.361 billion yuan, an increase of 102% over the end of last year, of which self-held assets totaled 14.762 billion yuan and management service assets totaled 17.599 billion yuan. The share of management services rose from 25% at the end of 2017 to 54% at the end of June 2018. By the end of the reporting period, the scale of assets that had been effectively resolved and disposed of was 7.629 billion yuan, the remaining self-held assets totaled 10.663 billion yuan, and the management service assets totaled 14.068 billion yuan. Compared with self-owned capital investment, the profit model of management services business is more stable and predictable.
The bad continues to rise, and the business demand is strong. According to the CBIC, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks at the end of the second quarter of 18 was 1.96 trillion, an increase of 15.3 per cent over the beginning of the year, and the non-performing loan ratio also rose from 1.74 per cent to 1.86 per cent. In addition, under the pressure of the economic downturn, regulators intend to promote the bad clearing of the banking system in order to vacate more credit resources. In this context, non-performing asset management plate business opportunities are expected to increase.
Investment advice: we downgrade the company's profit forecast for 18amp to 393 million yuan / 464 million yuan in 19 years.
Risk hint: AMC business progress is not as expected; refinery project progress is not as expected