This report is read as follows:
The results of the second quarter are expected to grow faster than expected, with a year-on-year growth rate of 497%, 523%, and the oil service sector business is spun off in an orderly manner, and the company's performance for the whole year is expected to exceed expectations.
Events:
According to the company's announcement on June 20, the company predicts that the first half of the year will achieve a net profit of 182 million yuan to 190 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 497%, 523%, and the first half of the year is expected to achieve substantial growth.
Comments:
Maintain the overweight rating with a target price of 31.77 yuan: according to the company's first quarterly report in 2018, the company achieved a net profit of 58.0394 million yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 188.14% over the same period last year, exceeding our expectations. Based on this calculation, the growth rate of net profit of homing in the second quarter of 2018 was 1097% and 1175% (10.3525 million in the second quarter of 2017). As the company's AMC business enters a profit release period, its AMC business scale and profitability will continue to grow rapidly. The profit growth of the company's AMC business and the divestiture of the oil service loss business exceeded market expectations, optimistic about the company's full-year performance, maintaining the forecast of 2018-2020 net profit of 405 million yuan, 605 million yuan and 954 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.84,1.25 and 1.97 yuan, respectively, maintaining the target price of 31.77 yuan, the relative current price of 58.45%, and maintaining the "overweight" rating.
The acquisition and reorganization business has entered the performance release period, and the annual performance is expected to increase significantly: according to the company's annual report in 2018, the company will enter the profit concentrated release period of the acquisition and reorganization business from 2017 to 2019. Due to seasonal factors, the profit performance of the AMC business in the second half of the year is expected to exceed that of the first half. As a result, the performance of the first two quarters indicates an increase in the probability that the company's full-year results will significantly exceed expectations.
The oil service business is spun off in an orderly manner, and the oil service is expected to turn around more than expected for the whole year: according to the company's announcement on May 29, 2018, the company plans to sell its subsidiary, Jiai (Tianjin) Petroleum Engineering Co., Ltd., at a consideration of 405 million. The transaction can reduce the company's related party debt by 405 million yuan, help to reduce the company's loan interest expenses, and increase the company's current income by about 6 million yuan. With the orderly divestiture of the loss-making oil service business, the oil service plate is expected to turn losses into profits beyond expectations this year.
Catalyst: better-than-expected growth in the second half of the year
Risk hint: House prices have fallen sharply and Tajikistan's refineries have failed to start production on schedule.