share_log

阳光油砂(02012.HK)投资价值报告:资源雄厚 产油将带来价值回归

Sunshine Oil Sands (02012.HK) Investment Value Report: Oil production with strong resources will bring value back

中信證券 ·  May 25, 2014 00:00  · Researches

Canada has huge oil sands resources. In 2012, Canada had 173.9 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, second only to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, accounting for 10.4 per cent of the world's total. Among them, 97% of the crude oil reserves exist in the form of oil sands. Oil sand exploitation methods include opencast mining method and drilling method. At present, SAGD (steam-assisted gravity flooding, belonging to drilling method) has become the mainstream. In Canada, companies with oil sands mining as their main business (or one of their main businesses) include Suncor, MEG, Husky, Nexen and Sunshine Oil Sands (SUO) and Athabaska. Only Suncor is mainly open-pit mining, and the other five are SAGD technology.

The problem of oil sand discount may be solved to some extent due to the commissioning of Gateway pipeline, and the operating cost of oil sand is higher than that of conventional resources. The price of bitumen oil (bitumen), a product developed by Canadian oil sands, has a certain discount compared with international crude oil, for two reasons: first, Canadian crude oil is mainly supplied to the United States, which is affected by the undervalued WTI; second, the oil sands are heavy and viscous and need to be refined before they can be sold. After the completion of the Gateway westward pipeline, a joint venture between the Canadian government and Asia-Pacific countries, the problem of Canadian oil sands sales restricted by the United States will be solved. In terms of oil sands production costs, the average DD&A cost of the four oil sands listed companies is 18 US dollars per barrel, which is equivalent to the conventional resource cost (average 19 US dollars per barrel). The average operating cost of oil sands development in the four companies is $26 per barrel, which is significantly higher than that of conventional resources (an average of $11 per barrel).

Sunshine oil sands 2P oil sands reserves of 444 million barrels, resources of more than 4 billion barrels, whether there is production is the key factor affecting the valuation. Sunshine oil sands is one of the largest holders of oil sands in Athabasca, Alberta, Canada, with 1.1 million acres of oil sands, accounting for 7 per cent of the total sold area in Athabaska. According to the reserves reports of the international independent evaluation companies GLJ and Dempm, as of December 31, 2013, the company's 1P, 2P and 3P reserves were 79 million barrels, 444 million barrels and 579 million barrels, respectively, and the best expected recoverable resources reached 4.095 billion barrels. Comparing several listed oil sands mining companies, it is found that the valuation level of companies with existing production is significantly higher than that of companies that do not yet have production. Suncor, MEG and other oil sands companies that have production at present, the corresponding enterprise value of unit 2P reserves is about 4-10 US dollars / barrel. In mid-2012, CNOOC acquired Nexen at a consideration of US $19.4 billion (including liabilities), with an enterprise value of US $8.90 per unit of 2P reserves. However, Sunshine Oil Sand has no production yet, and its unit 2P reserves correspond to an enterprise value of only US $1.20 per barrel.

Pay attention to the construction progress of the company and the cost and profit after it is put into production in the future. The progress of the company's capacity construction is lower than previously expected. As cash resources could not support the capital expenditure requirements of existing projects, the first phase of West Ells was suspended in August 2013, and additional funding was required before the development plan and specific gas injection dates could be redetermined. The company plans to restart construction of the first phase of West Ells by mid-2014 and inject steam by the end of 2014. The operating cost of oil sands development mainly depends on SOR (steam injection / oil production). The SOR value of the company's West ells block is in the middle of the industry. according to the company's forecast, the normal operating cost is about $20 / barrel and the unit profit ranges from $20 to $40 (depending on oil prices).

Risk factors: 1. Cash crunch leads to the risk that the company's development progress continues to be lower than expected; 2. The risk of a sharp fall in crude oil prices; 3. The risk of development investment exceeding expectations; 4. The risk of steam injection ratio (SOR) exceeding expectations; 5. Geological and reservoir characteristic risk; 6. The risk of changes in the tax or environmental protection system.

Earnings forecast, valuation and investment rating: the company has launched bond financing and is expected to start producing production in 2015. However, because the output is a gradual increase process, the output in the current year is not high, and the unit operating cost may be high at the beginning of production, it is not expected to be profitable in 2015. It will basically reach full production in 2016, and SOR and unit operating costs are expected to decline and begin to make a profit. It is estimated that the annual EPS of the company in 14-15-16 will be-0.013 Canadian dollars respectively. Using the relative valuation of reserves, the relative valuation of PB and the valuation of DCF, the reasonable value is HK $1.05,1.40,1.02 respectively, and the target price range is 1.02-1.40 yuan. The "overweight" rating is given for the first time.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment