Dalian Port reveals three quarterly reports for 15 years. In the first three quarters, the company achieved a total income of 6.51 billion yuan, an increase of 17.5% over the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 370 million yuan, down 11.3% from the same period last year, and 310 million yuan after deducting non-net profit, down 17.4% from the same period last year.
Oil throughput outperformed others, bulk grain business continued to fall sharply, and other business performance was lacklustre: oil throughput grew steadily in the first three quarters, with a cumulative growth rate of 15.8%. Bulk grain continued its decline, with a cumulative decline of 42.1%, the same as in the first half of the year. The container and automobile business is under pressure, the container decline has expanded to 0.6% compared with the first half of the year, and the growth rate of automobile throughput has changed from positive to negative. The throughput of ores and groceries decreased by 4.2% and 6.0%, respectively. In addition, passenger transport business decreased by 3.9%, while the throughput of ro-ro vehicles increased by 11.3%. The oil business was the main driver of the company's revenue growth in the first three quarters, but due to the downturn in the bulk grain and ore sectors and the increase in the cost of production capacity, the company's gross profit margin fell 3 points year-on-year to 16.7%, achieving a gross profit of 1.09 billion.
Financial and management costs led to a decline in net profit, and 4Q was difficult to make a significant improvement: the company's financial expenses in the first three quarters increased by 18.1% to 410 million compared with the same period last year, and management expenses increased by 9% to 430 million over the same period last year, totaling nearly 100 million yuan over last year, which is the main reason why the net profit decreased by 54 million yuan compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the macroeconomic growth rate in the fourth quarter will be difficult to exceed expectations, and the port throughput growth rate and the overall operating situation of listed companies will be flat.
A high probability platform for the integration of northern ports. The company announced on the evening of October 13 that the issuance of an additional 1.48 billion H shares has been approved by the CSRC, and the funds raised will be used for oil business development, investment or optimization and integration of domestic and foreign ports, construction of "Internet + Port", construction of specialized port logistics facilities, etc. Under the background of the lack of overall planning of domestic ports and the establishment of port management platforms for unified layout, we believe that the expectation of port integration in Northeast China is gradually heating up. in the future, the government may integrate the port resources in Northeast China (Dalian Port, Yingkou Port, Jinzhou Port, Dandong Port, etc.) through Dalian Port, so as to facilitate unified management and coordinated development.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company's revenue to grow by 18.5%, 8.9% and 10.9% respectively from 2015 to 2017, and the company's EPS (not considering additional offerings for the time being) will grow by-13.8%, 7.6% and 10.5% respectively. Considering that the company has the probability of becoming a northern port integration platform, it will be given a-A rating and a 6-month target price of 7.50 yuan.
Risk hint: northeast port integration expectations are lower than expected