Items:
On the evening of January 13, 2017, Mr. Dou Jianwen, the controlling shareholder and chairman of the company, increased his holdings of 3847722 shares in the company by means of block transactions and secondary market bidding, accounting for 1% of the total share capital of the company. After this increase, Mr. Dou Jianwen holds a total of 17.86% of the shares of the company.
Comments:
Increasing its stake by 1% shows confidence, and the controlling shareholder does not rule out the possibility of continuing to increase its stake. Mr. Dou Jianwen's increase includes accepting the 0.86% shares planned to be sold by the employee stock ownership plan at 11.68 yuan per share, and buying 0.14% shares at 11.63 yuan per share, increasing the average holding price by 11.67 yuan per share. The controlling shareholder undertakes not to reduce its company shares within six months from the date of completion of this increase, and does not rule out the possibility of continuing to increase its shares in the future. We believe that this increase reflects that the controlling shareholders are optimistic about the future development prospects of the company, and have a reasonable judgment on the current stock price, which is conducive to the long-term and healthy development of the company.
Equipment plate: hydraulic end and Flowmeter are expected to improve, fixed increase / participation in various categories of power. The average service time of hydraulic end assembly of Qinghe machinery is less than 200 hours, and the property of consumables is obvious. Last week, the number of active rigs in the United States has rebounded 63% from the 16-year low, and the number of active rigs in Canada has also increased by 110 to 315. Fracturing is expected to increase production strongly. Qinghe Machinery is expected to sweep away the impact of the delay in Halliburton orders from April to September in 16 years and return to high-quality growth in 17 years. Our Flowmeter business has been certified by Saudi Aramco for 16 years, and Saudi Aramco purchases about 160 multiphase Flowmeters a year. Based on the company's 10% share, 17-year Flowmeter sales are expected to grow by 30% on the existing annual average of 50 units. In addition, the company participates in 27.82% of the shares of Xi'an Sitan, the largest oilfield water injection equipment manufacturer in China, (promising that the non-net profit for 16 years will not be less than 68 million yuan), and will raise an additional 708 million yuan for the oil field environmental protection project. The layout of multi-category equipment products is expected to form a joint force in the equipment sector.
North American block: the upward price of oil is expected to contribute higher performance elasticity. The company's shale oil and gas sales in the United States come from two blocks: 1) the Niobrara block is jointly developed with Carrizo, with a total area of 60,000 acres; and 2) the Texas Permian block, with a total area of about 7000 acres, has a total equity area of 13,000 acres, and the company's current equity caliber is expected to produce more than 200000 barrels of oil annually. In December 16, the company announced that it would increase its investment in shale oil exploration and development by US $20 million to its subsidiary Hammer USA. The company's wellhead cost is about US $46 per barrel, which has made a small profit according to the current oil price. if the oil price continues to rise, the shale oil block is expected to continue to contribute high performance elasticity.
Nuclear power business: enter the post-market of nuclear power with broad space. The company announced in August that it had acquired a 25% stake in CNNC Jiahua for 35 million yuan. CNNC Jiahua has a complete civil nuclear / military nuclear equipment manufacturing license and related confidentiality qualifications, which is close to the spent fuel treatment project in Gansu, and has a significant competitive advantage. The investment scale of Gansu spent fuel Phase I project is expected to be more than 28 billion yuan, and the construction period is about 8 years. At that time, the non-standard equipment order of CNNC Jiahua is expected to reach an average annual scale of 1 billion.
Risk hint. Downside risk of international oil price; order delay; construction of spent fuel projects is slower than expected.
Profit forecast and valuation. The company has continued to improve its business layout in recent years, and this increase demonstrates the strong confidence of the controlling shareholders in the future business development of the company. We expect the company's hydraulic assembly and Flowmeter business to pick up in 17 years, the North American block is expected to bring high performance flexibility, and the diversified layout of environmental protection business and nuclear power post-market will also continue to advance. We maintain the company's profit forecast of 0.33 yuan, 0.93 yuan and 111 million yuan for 2016-18, maintain the target price of 15.53 yuan per share, and maintain the "buy" rating.