Brief performance review
On June 1, 2023, the company disclosed the first quarter report of 2023. Q1 achieved revenue of 5.1 billion yuan, an increase of 0.3% over the previous year; the adjusted net loss was 1.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year narrower of 37.7%. The loss rate was 20.3%, and the year-on-year narrower was 12.4 Pct.
Management analysis
User side: Achieve high-quality growth and stable increase in stickiness. The average daily active users of 2023Q1 company reached 93.7 million, an increase of 18% over the previous year, and the ratio of DAU to MAU increased further to 29.7%. The average daily usage time of users reached 96 minutes. The prosperity of the content ecosystem is the basis for user growth. The company collaborated on the supply side of PUGV and OGV to continuously motivate and guide individuals to create content and monetize their content. 2023Q1 received 1.5 million UPs from Station B, with an average monthly submission volume exceeding 22 million.
On the monetization side: Cost reduction and efficiency increase were obvious, gross margin increased month-on-month, and losses were drastically reduced. 2023Q1's gross margin reached 21.8%, +1.4 Pct month-on-month and +5.8 Pct year-on-year, mainly due to revenue share and lower server bandwidth costs. The marketing expenses of the 2021Q1 company were 880 million yuan, a decrease of 30% over the previous year, the marketing expenses ratio was 17.4%, the previous month was -3.3 Pct, the previous year - 7.5 Pct; management expenses were 572 million yuan, down 30% from the previous month, the management expenses ratio was 11.3%, down 31.3% from the previous month; the R&D expenses rate was 20.3%, the previous year was -4.1Pct. The adjusted net loss was $1.03 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 37.7%.
Business side: Adequate game reserves will soon enter the product cycle, advertising product optimization is expected to accelerate growth in the future, and the boom in the live content ecosystem will drive healthy growth in value-added services. Division of business:
1) The revenue of 2023Q1 games was 1.13 billion yuan, a decrease of 17% over the previous year, mainly due to the fact that no new games were launched. The intermodal transport game “Crash: Stardom Railroad” is equivalent to the launch of Q2, and there are sufficient reserves for subsequent projects, “Shine! Games such as “The Handsome Girl” will soon be launched and will enter the game product cycle.
2) The 2023Q1 advertising business was 1.27 billion yuan, an increase of 22% over the previous year. The company continues to improve advertising efficiency and improve algorithm capabilities. Growth is expected to accelerate as advertiser demand is clearly recovered. 3) 2023Q1's value-added service revenue was 2.16 billion yuan, an increase of 21% over the previous year. The gradual boom in the live content ecosystem led to business growth. The average number of active anchors of the 2023Q1 company per month increased 34% year over year, and the number of paid live streaming users increased 15% year over year. 4) 2023Q1 e-commerce and other businesses amounted to 5.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 15% over the previous year, mainly due to a decrease in IP derivatives sales.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
The company's revenue is estimated to be 244/282/31.5 billion yuan in 2023/2024/2025, and the net profit of NON-GAAP to the parent is -35/-6/6 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the 2023 P/E of 74.03X, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
User growth fell short of expectations; advertiser demand fell short of expectations; mainstream premium UPs were at risk; game launch time or performance fell short of expectations.