1. The company announced the first quarter report of 2023, with a profit of 360 million: 1) 23Q1 revenue was 3.86 billion, an increase of 63.6% over the previous year, exceeding 6.1% in '19, achieving net profit of 360 million (loss of 440 million yuan for the same period of 22Q1, profit of 2019Q1 of 4.8 million), and profit of 340 million after deduction. 2) Exchange gains and losses: RMB appreciated 1.3 pts in Q1, and the estimated exchange income was about 0.05 billion yuan.
Revenue level: It is estimated that 23Q1 passenger kilometer revenue (including oil) was 0.42 yuan, an increase of 30.3% over the same period in 19, an increase of 10.4% over the same period in 19. The revenue per kilometer was 0.36 yuan, an increase of 56.6% over the same period in 19, an increase of 4.0% over the same period in 19.
Costs and expenses: Cost control is excellent, and the cost per unit of oil deduction in Q1 is basically the same as 19Q1. 1) The operating cost in Q1 was 3.38 billion, an increase of 13.3% over the previous year. The estimated cost of aviation fuel was 1.26 billion, an increase of 31.9% over the previous year. Domestic oil prices and comprehensive procurement costs increased 29% year-on-year during the period. The cost of oil deduction was 2.1 billion, an increase of 4.5% over the previous year. The cost of a pedestal kilometer was 0.326 yuan, an increase of 8.3% over the previous year, an increase of 9.9% over the year; the deflection cost for a seat kilometer was 0.204 yuan, a decrease of 0.1% over the previous year, an increase of only 0.1% over 19. 2) Q1 withheld three remittance fees of 190 million dollars, a year-on-year rate of -12.2%, a three-rate of 5.0%, and a year-on-year rate of -4.3 pts.
2. The company's 2022 annual report: Revenue in '22 was 8.37 billion, down 22.9% from the previous year, down 43.5% from '19, with a loss of 3.04 billion (profit of 40 million in the same period in '21), and a loss of 3.2 billion dollars after deduction. Quarterly: Q4 revenue was $1.76 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%, and a loss of $1.30 billion (21Q4 loss of 120 million), while Q1-Q4 deducted non-net profit of -4.6, -8.5, -5.2, and -1.36 billion, respectively. 2) Exchange gains and losses: RMB depreciated 9.2% in '22, and exchange losses amounted to 130 million. 3) Other revenue: RMB 9.3 billion, or -30.5% year on year, of which Q4 was 240 million, down 44.3% year on year.
Revenue per unit: Revenue per passenger kilometer in '22 (including oil) was 0.36 yuan, up 16.8% year on year, down 1.2% from the same period in '19. Revenue per kilometer was 0.27 yuan, up 5.2% year on year and down 18.8% from '19.
On the cost side: 1) The annual operating cost was 11.59 billion yuan, an increase of 2.3% over the previous year. During the period, the comprehensive price of aviation oil production increased 74.6% year on year, the cost of aviation fuel was 3.95 billion yuan, an increase of 17.3% over the previous year, and the cost of oil withholding was 7.6 billion yuan, -4.1% year on year. The cost of a square kilometer was 0.382 yuan, an increase of 39.8% over the previous year; the fuel cost for a square kilometer was 0.252 yuan, an increase of 31.1% over the previous year.
2) Expenses: The total of three fees (withholding) in '22 was 860 million, an increase of 11.0% over the previous year. The deduction rate was 10.3%, an increase of 3.2 pts over the previous year.
Fleet introduction: The company disclosed net fleet growth of 7, 14, and 10 aircraft in 23-25, respectively, corresponding to annual increases of 6.0%, 11.4%, and 7.3%, respectively, maintaining industry leadership.
3. Investment suggestions: 1) Based on the previous report, industry demand has continued to recover since the implementation of the Class B management policy, while oil prices and exchange rates fluctuated greatly. We adjusted the estimated net profit attributable to the mother in 23-24 to 2.14 billion and 4.18 billion respectively (the original forecast profit was 1.63 billion yuan and 2.79 billion yuan). At the same time, we introduced the 2025 profit forecast as the estimated profit of 5.03 billion yuan. The corresponding EPS for 23-25 was 2.19, 4.28, and 5.14 yuan respectively, and PE was 29, 15, and 12 times, respectively. 2) Investment advice: According to the latest introduction plans of the three major airlines, the low growth rate of supply in the industry has settled and sustainability has been further extended; the demand side has full potential. According to Flight AI data, domestic passenger volume and ticket price levels for the first two days of May Day increased by more than double digits compared to 19. Subsequently, wide-body aircraft will gradually fly overseas, excess capacity will return to international markets, and the price side will be more supported, and flexibility is expected to be significantly higher than before. We emphasize that under the main line of recovery in the aviation industry in '23, the market will be higher and continue for a longer period of time. As a low-cost leader, the company practices a virtuous cycle of “cost - price - flow” to obtain long-term growth that surpasses the industry. We think that the market may underestimate the elasticity under the company's price reservoir. We expect that once the industry boom is prosperous, the company is expected to impact peak profits of 5 billion dollars. Referring to the company's historical average valuation level, PE was given 22 times over 24 years, corresponding to the target market value of 92 billion yuan and the target price of 94.1 yuan. Expected 51% space compared to the current estimate, emphasizing the “strong push” rating.
Risk warning: The economy has declined sharply, oil prices have risen sharply, and the exchange rate has depreciated sharply.