Events. The company announces its 2022 annual report. The company achieved an operating income of 5.445 billion yuan in 2022, an increase of 34.01% over the same period last year, a net profit of 921 million yuan, an increase of 45.28% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 927 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 61.7% over the same period last year.
In 2022, Q4 achieved an operating income of 1.072 billion yuan in the single quarter, an increase of 1.27% over the same period last year, a net profit of 178 million yuan, an increase of 10.52% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 164 million yuan in non-net profit, an increase of 20.54% over the same period last year.
The company announces its quarterly report for 2023. In 2023, Q1 achieved operating income of 1.751 billion yuan, an increase of 27.49% over the same period last year, a net profit of 281 million yuan, an increase of 35.07% over the same period last year, and a deduction of 274 million yuan for non-net profit, an increase of 40.19% over the same period last year.
Comments: the performance is in line with the previous announcement range, the CDMO plate is growing rapidly, and the number of projects is increasing rapidly.
The performance is in line with the previous announcement range, showing a bright growth rate. The company previously announced the 2022 annual report and the main operating data of 23Q1. It is estimated that the operating income in 2022 is 54.04-5.607 billion yuan, an increase of 33% 38% over the same period last year; the net profit of returning to the mother is 9.07-938 million yuan, up 43% on the same period last year; and the non-net profit deducted by the mother is 9.05-934 million yuan, an increase of 58%, 63%, and 1.786 billion yuan over the same period last year, and an increase of 25% over the same period last year The net profit of returning to the mother was 2.77-287 million yuan, an increase of 33% MUR 38% over the same period last year. The performance fell within the forecast range, in line with expectations, showing a bright growth rate.
In 2022, the CDMO plate increased by 48% compared with the same period last year, accounting for 63% of the revenue, and the number of projects increased rapidly; the API plate also achieved rapid growth. In 2022, the revenue of the characteristic API and intermediates business (API business) was 1.637 billion yuan, an increase of about 25% over the same period last year, accounting for about 30% of the total revenue. The income of CDMO business is 3.417 billion yuan, an increase of about 48% over the same period last year, accounting for about 63% of total income. CDMO business is growing fast, and the proportion of revenue is increasing significantly (38% in 2019, 49% in 2020, 49% in 2021). The number of the company's CDMO projects is also increasing rapidly. At present, 26 of the company's projects have been commercialized; 61 projects are in clinical III phase, which is expected to become an increase in revenue from commercial projects in the past two years; and 764 projects are in clinical phase II and phase I, and early clinical projects are increasing rapidly. In 2022, the company successfully passed a NDA new drug project NMPA raw material drug pre-market verification, and successfully promoted China's first self-developed Class 1 new drug for the treatment of depression. The company's sustainable funnel project structure of CDMO plate has been formed.
Internal new construction + external mergers and acquisitions to speed up capacity construction, and further promote the global layout. The construction of nearly 1700 cubic meters of new base in Taizhou (Phase I) is progressing in an orderly manner. Suzhou has completed the main construction of the pilot plant, the polypeptide GMP production line has been completed, and the GMP multi-function pilot plant has been built in the United States; the first phase expansion of pharmaceutical science and technology has been completed. Kangchuan Ji Pharmaceutical, acquired in the first half of 2022, completed 2600 square meters of R & D site expansion, and Ruihua Zhongshan, acquired in the second half of 2022, promoted the development of the company's one-stop business of CDMO API and preparations.
Profit forecast and valuation. It is estimated that the company's operating income from 2023 to 2025 will be 7.179 billion yuan, 9.118 billion yuan and 11.723 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 31.8%, 27.0% and 28.6% respectively, and the corresponding net profit will be 1.238 billion yuan, 1.632 billion yuan and 2.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 34.5%, 31.8% and 31.4%, respectively, with PE of 23x, 18x and 13x respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: API price fluctuation risk; Novartis product volume is less than expected risk; the company's new project promotion is not as expected risk.