Key points of investment

Recently, Changchun Hi-Tech released its first quarterly report for 2023. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 2,778 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.63%; achieved net profit of 857 million yuan, a decrease of 24.71% over the previous year; realized net profit of 854 million yuan after deducting non-return mothers, a decrease of 23.93%; and achieved net operating cash flow of 937 million yuan, an increase of 55.21% over the previous year.

Profit prediction and ratings: Jinsai Pharmaceutical is expected to achieve steady growth driven by the continuous increase in the penetration rate of growth hormone and the gradual release of long-acting growth hormone and recombinant follicle-stimulating hormone. The 100g biological nasal spray influenza vaccine has great potential for growth. The shingles vaccine became the first domestically produced vaccine of its kind. In addition, the company is also researching a number of major products, forming a good product gradient, which is worth paying attention to. We adjusted the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the 2023-2025 EPS will be 12.55 yuan, 15.26 yuan, and 18.43 yuan; corresponding to the closing price on April 19, PE will be 13.0 times, 10.7 times, and 8.8 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.

Risk warning: sales of core varieties fell short of expectations, risk of price reduction in core variety collection, risk of policy changes, increased competition pattern, R&D pipeline progress fell short of expectations, etc.