Rapid growth of tetravalent influenza virus cleavage vaccine as the core product
Kindick is a family vaccine R & D, production and sales enterprise, established in December 2008, the company tetravalent influenza virus split vaccine went on the market in 2019. The company's operating income was 589 million yuan in 2020, an increase of 777.3% over the same period last year, and its net profit was 155 million yuan, turning losses into profits.
The company expects the operating income from January to June in 2021 to be 0.31 to 36 million yuan, and the net profit is expected to be-0.36 to-33 million yuan. This is mainly due to the strong seasonality of influenza vaccine sales, and most of the performance is reflected in the second half of the year.
The vaccination rate of influenza vaccine in China still needs to be improved. Accelerating the annual vaccination of tetravalent influenza vaccine is the most effective measure to prevent influenza, and there is still much room to improve the vaccination rate of influenza vaccine in China. According to the data of the Central people's Procuratorate, the batch distribution of influenza vaccine in China in 2020 was 0.58 million doses, and the vaccination rate of the total population was less than 4.2%. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the influenza vaccination rates for adults and children in the United States in 2020 were 48.4% and 63.8%, respectively. In terms of different types of vaccines, tetravalent influenza vaccines were first sold in China in 2019, and the proportion of batch issuance of tetravalent influenza vaccines in 2020 has reached 58.4%. In 2013, tetravalent influenza vaccines began to appear on the market in the United States, and the proportion of tetravalent influenza vaccines in the United States reached 86.6% in the influenza season 2018-2020. In view of the fact that tetravalent influenza vaccine covers more strains, the release of tetravalent influenza vaccine is expected to accelerate with the release of tetravalent influenza vaccine production capacity of Chinese vaccine companies.
The company increases the production capacity of tetravalent influenza vaccine to lay the foundation for performance growth. The design capacity of the company's existing influenza vaccine workshop is about 1000 million doses per year, and the output in 2020 is 5.117,200 doses. At present, the company is building a tetravalent influenza vaccine workshop with a production capacity of 3000 million doses per year. In addition, the company's products under development include 9 vaccine products for 5 indications, of which the freeze-dried human rabies vaccine (Vero cell) has completed Phase III clinical trials, and the design capacity of the rabies vaccine workshop is about 1500 million doses per year.
Profit forecast and investment rating
We believe that the vaccination rate of influenza vaccine in China is currently on the low side. COVID-19 's epidemic situation helps to raise public awareness of influenza vaccination, and influenza vaccine needs to be vaccinated every year, and tetravalent influenza vaccine has a better protective effect. The overall vaccination rate increases and the proportion of superimposed tetravalent influenza vaccine increases. As an important manufacturer of tetravalent influenza vaccine, the company is expected to benefit. We estimate that the company's operating income from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.429 billion yuan, respectively, with an increase of 82.1%, 16.3% and 94.8% respectively over the same period last year. It is estimated that the net profit of homecoming will be 748 million yuan respectively, with an increase of 102.5%, 20.0% and 98.7% respectively over the same period last year.
Using the PE valuation method of comparable companies, the average PE of comparable companies in 2021 is 44 times, giving the company 44 times PE, corresponding to a market capitalization of 13.81 billion yuan and a target price of 156.93 yuan, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the coverage rate of influenza vaccine in China is lower than expected, and the proportion of tetravalent influenza vaccine is lower than expected; technical risks such as the research and development progress of the research project is not as expected; the policy risk; the potential risk caused by the safety of vaccine products; the risk of fierce competition in the vaccine industry; the single product structure; the risk of widening capital gap; the stock is a secondary new stock with less circulating share capital, and there is a risk of sharp fluctuations in the stock price in a short period of time.