澳博控股(00880.HK)21Q2点评:上葡京分段式开业 澳博陆氹时代里程碑到来

Australian Expo Holdings (00880.HK) 21Q2 review: A phased opening in Shanghai to Beijing reached a milestone in the Macau Expo and Cotai era

興業證券 ·  08/08/2021

Main points of investment

The company's net 21Q2 earnings / GGR reverted to 19Q2 33% Universe 28%. The net income of the company during the period was HK $2.744 billion, + 206.6% compared with the same period last year, which was the level of 19Q2 28.8% and 32.6%. Midfield GGR quarter-on-quarter / year-on-year + 3.8% GGR 240.6% to HK $2.334 billion, slot machine GGR / year-on-year + 28.1% GGR quarter-on-year 58.4% to HK $150 million, driving the company's GGR quarter / year-on-year + 7.6% bonus 200% to HK $2.853 billion; year-on-year-23.6% bonus 115% to HK $370 million. Reviewing the performance of the industry, Macau Q2 GGR quarter-on-month / year-on-year + 7.4% of GDP 685%, returning to 34% of 19Q2. Due to 560 million of the pre-opening cost of Lisboa, the company's 21H1 profit has not improved. In July, the new Lisboa performance is still eye-catching, with the midfield GGR + 123% compared with June, and the slot machine GGR+34% transcoding amount + 44%.

The phased opening of Shanghai Portugal Beijing marks the group's entry into a new stage of Ludong's development. Upper Lisboa officially opened on July 30. SJM is SJM's first property in the Ludwig region, offering Hotel Lisboa (1350 rooms), the world's only Lafayette Hotel (271rooms) and Asia's first Versace Hotel (271rooms). In the first phase, Lisboa opened 150 government-approved midfield tables, 661 slot machines (1200 approved), 504 guest rooms and 7 restaurants. The company will gradually open the remaining rooms in Hotel Lisboa and deploy more gaming tables according to market conditions, while Versace Hotel and Lafayette Hotel are expected to open in Q4, when they will provide a richer dining and shopping experience (including four restaurants and cdf duty-free shops, etc.).

The average daily Opex of Lisboa is HK $4.8 million, and the group allocates existing property staff to optimize expenses. Shanghai Lisboa now has 3800 employees, including 1400 who have been deployed from existing properties. The company expects to be able to deploy up to 2000 employees, which is expected to save the existing property an average of HK $1.7 million per day Opex. The average Opex of Shanghai and Portugal now amounts to HK $4.8 million and is expected to reach HK $9 million when it is fully opened. The company expects that if the market GGR can return to the 2019 level of 30%, then the new Lisboa EBITDA is expected to level. In addition, the Group is conducting a customer activation program to strengthen customer resources. Due to the transfer of the industry to Lufeng in recent years, the company continues to lose its share, but as a veteran gaming group in Macau, the company's brand and customer accumulation are still deep, and the opening of Lisboa is expected to attract customers to return. Significantly boost the company's influence and market share.

In the short term, the market is still affected by the epidemic, and the next step is to focus on the endorsement and the policy of customs clearance between Hong Kong and Macao. In the medium to long term, the era of Macao VIP is over, the development of high-end midfield and mass gaming will help boost the profitability of the sector, and the industry valuation is reasonable. From the company's point of view, the opening of Lisboa Shanghai is a new milestone for SJM, with an average number of daily visitors exceeding 10,000 within five days of opening, nearly half of whom entered the gaming area. Shanghai Lisboa, as the latest large-scale comprehensive property in Macau, is expected to become a new landmark for Macau tourism, fully prepared for the follow-up recovery, is expected to recover the company's continued loss of market share and release flexibility, it is recommended to pay attention.

Risk hints: the mainland's economy is in the doldrums, industry competition is intensified, regulatory policies are changing, and epidemic situations are repeated.

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