This report is read as follows:
H1 return net profit is expected to increase by 38-51%; the company will continue to consolidate the basic market, while developing home appliances and smart areas, actively expand new retail, develop fine decoration / home demand and other diversified formats.
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. Maintain the forecast for 2021-23 EPS of 1.14, 12.27, and 1.41 yuan, grow by 11%, maintain the target price of 18.22 yuan, and maintain an increase of 12.9 times the PE of 16.3 PE in 2021-23, maintaining an increase in holdings.
The net profit of H1 is expected to increase by 38-51%. 1) the estimated return net profit of H1 is 38-51%, which is 6.2-16.5% higher than that of 2019H1, 32% higher than that of 2019H1,-1.8% 8.5% and-1.8% 8.5%, respectively. 2) the net profit of Q1 is increased by 6.1%,-8.6% and 85% compared with 2019Q1 and 280 million yuan, respectively, and 28% compared with 2019Q2. 3) We believe that the rapid growth of H1, especially Q2, is mainly due to a low base last year, a significant improvement in order income as the economy recovers and household consumption picks up, and steadily promoting financial and investment business and strengthening cash management. related income increased significantly compared with the same period last year.
In the field of home appliances and intelligence, look forward to the new retail blooming. 1) the company has reached cooperation with dozens of top head smart home brands and platforms at home and abroad to build a scene for the integration and optimization of household appliances to promote the intelligent construction of the whole house; 2) the first new retail self-run trial store, Animal Symphony Troupe, was launched in December 2020, and its self-operated brand has both high-looking / cost-effective, demonstrating the supply chain advantages of the company's deeply cultivated household industry. We judge that if we continue to expand the layout in 2021, we will benefit from the rise of the new generation of consumption power / national tide; 3) the new track of the cultural and art industry.
Sichuan re-open a new store, tamp the basic plate, the development of fine decoration / home demand and other diversified formats. 1) located in the middle and high end home shopping mall, Meishan opened in Meishan, which joined the "Chengdu-Chongqing Shuangcheng Economic Circle".
One of the cities will vigorously develop into the same city, with rapid economic development and rapid urbanization, and the market demand will increase day by day; 2) continue to innovate and enrich business forms, driven by nine kinds of shopping malls, such as bag check-in format, home demand format, etc.; 3) integrate all links such as home building materials factory / dealer / designer / decoration company, etc. 4) the Fusenmei Tmall flagship store will start operation in March 2021, which will accelerate the online and offline integration.
Risk tips: the epidemic situation is repeated, the new retail promotion is not as expected, and so on.
