Event: the company issued a half-year performance forecast for 2021, and it is estimated that the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of the year is 6.9-750 million yuan, an increase of 89-105% over the same period last year, corresponding to 0.37-0.41 yuan per share of EPS.
Net profit may double again in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period last year. The main reason for the sharp increase in the prices of major products in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period last year is that the prices of major products not only rose sharply compared with the same period last year. At the same time, the trend in the first half of 2021 is stable and remains high. Where:
The price of fuel ethanol has risen simultaneously, benefiting from prices. 1) the rise in oil prices has led to a rise in the price of fuel ethanol, which rose from 15.98 US dollars per barrel at the bottom of April last year to 77.84 US dollars per barrel on June 30 of this year, an increase of 387.11%. This has led to a rise in fuel ethanol prices; 2) the price of corn at the superimposed cost side has risen, supporting the price of fuel ethanol to remain high.
The price of corn has risen by 56.76% since January last year, from about 1900 yuan to about 2900 yuan, with a price increase of 1000 yuan per ton. 3) because the company is able to use a variety of raw materials other than corn to produce fuel ethanol, this enables it to enjoy a continued expansion of profits; in terms of sales, the company's fuel ethanol benefits from the recovery of demand in the downstream market, and sales volume has also increased.
Starch-starch sugar and other corn deep processing products, the increase in terminal prices basically covered the rise in raw material prices. Historically, the other half of the company's performance has been contributed by deep-processed corn products other than fuel ethanol, so the increase in corn prices will affect the cost and terminal price of related products. However, according to the record of investor relations activities released by the company in June 2021, "from the performance of fructose, citric acid, starch and other products in the first half of the year, the increase in terminal prices basically covered the rise in raw material prices." In addition to the rise in sales prices, the company is also striving to purchase a larger quantity of raw materials in relatively low-cost areas. It can be seen that the company enjoyed the profit space brought by the rising prices of corn deep-processed products in the first half of the year by smoothing the risk of price fluctuations of corn raw materials.
The lactide project will be accelerated in the second half of the year, and polylactic acid (PLA), the last ring of the company's polylactic acid industry chain, is a completely degradable bio-based material with a wide range of applications, and carbon dioxide emissions can be reduced by 60% compared with ordinary plastics. Due to the plastic restriction and strengthening the superposition of "carbon neutralization"
With the advent of the times, the industry has entered a period of rapid development. At the right time for the rapid construction of domestic production capacity, the difficulty is that the key material lactide mainly depends on imports. The company is one of the first enterprises in China to master lactide technology, the company's polylactic acid raw material polymerization production line has been successfully tested, products are in short supply, and the 10,000-ton lactide project is advancing steadily. According to the June investor relations activity record, the company will accelerate the development of lactide project in the second half of this year. At present, companies in the A-share market have announced that there are companies building lactide projects, and Jindan Technology has seen the largest increase in the range since the lowest price has risen by 97.57% since the company issued the announcement on November 30, 2020.
Profit Forecast & Investment suggestion: we expect that from 2021 to 2023, the company will achieve a revenue of 271.93pm 288.39max RMB 30.955 billion and a net profit of 11.10 / 1570pm RMB 2.060 million, corresponding to EPS0.59/0.84/1.10 yuan per share. Risk hint: raw grain / crude oil price fluctuation risk, epidemic uncertainty, project progress is not as expected, performance forecast is preliminary accounting data, please take semi-annual report as standard
