The company issued a semi-annual performance forecast for 2021: it is expected to achieve a net profit of 150 million yuan to 180 million yuan, an increase of 81.32%, an increase of 81.32%, a year-on-year increase of 117.58% and 2021Q2. The net profit of 2021Q2 is 56 million yuan to 86 million yuan, an increase of 7.5% and 64.9% over the same period last year.
The prosperity of the downstream power tools industry remains high, driving the company's demand for power tools accessories.
Power tools battery pack expansion on the way, seize the tool "cordless + lithium electrification" upgrade opportunity. 1) the production capacity has been expanded by more than 25%, and the total production capacity has reached 1190 million sets per year. According to the company's fixed growth reply announcement, the company currently has a production capacity of 9.4 million new energy lithium battery packs per year. After the expansion project reaches production capacity, 2.5 million lithium battery packs can be added per year, with a capacity increase of about 26.6%. Among them, 7S1P series, 5S2P series and 5S1P series each increased by 1 million, 1 million and 500000, which is expected to contribute 395 million yuan in revenue and 63 million yuan in performance increment. 2) if the customer structure is further optimized, it may be cut into the battery supply chain of the power tool head manufacturer. At present, the company's lithium battery pack mainly supplies Hans Anhai, Qiyang, Radioflyer and other customers, after the completion of production expansion is expected to cover Bosch, Stanley Black, Mutian, TTI and other leading manufacturers in the field of power tools, lithium battery customer quality to a higher level. 3) when the tool "cordless + lithium electrification" infiltration is carried out, the high demeanor of the industry may continue.
According to Gao Gong Lithium, the global market for power tools is estimated to be about US $31.8 billion in 2019 and US $41.7 billion in 2024, of which the penetration rate of cordless electric power will exceed 50 per cent. In terms of lithium battery shipments, domestic lithium battery shipments for power tools 5.6GWh in 2020, an increase of 124% over the same period last year, are expected to maintain an average annual compound growth rate of 22% in the next five years, and domestic battery shipments for power tools will reach 15GWh in 2025.
The increase of capital and shares has been launched, and the popularization of power exchange has been accelerated. 1) increase capital and shares in Wuhan Weineng, and Weilai will continue to make efforts to change the construction of the power station. According to the company announcement, the company has completed the obligation of increasing capital by 150 million yuan on May 25, 2021. After Wuhan Weineng introduced the employee stock ownership platform, the company accounted for 9.9% of the registered capital of Wuhan Weineng. On July 9, 2021, Weilai announced the layout plan of NIO Power 2025 replacement power station on NIO PowerDay. Up to now, 301 exchange power stations have been built in China, providing more than 2.9 million power exchange services for users. At the same time, the construction of power exchange power stations will continue, and the total number of exchange power stations will be increased from 500 to more than 700 in 2021; from 2022 to 2025, 600 new exchange stations will be added each year in the Chinese market; and by the end of 2025, the total number of exchange power stations in the world will exceed 4000. 2) with the national promotion of power exchange pilot, the entry of giants is expected to accelerate the popularization. As of mid-May 2021, the number of fast-changing battery vehicles connected to the national platform was 155900, an increase of 30 per cent over 2019. According to Sinopec's plan, charging stations will be built at nearly 5000 gas stations in 2025, and infrastructure facilities will be accelerated, which is expected to boost the demand for power exchange business.
Profit forecast and investment advice: the company takes the power tool accessories business as the cornerstone, with orderly capacity expansion and rising added value, fully benefiting from the upgrading tide of "cordless + lithium electrification". At the same time, the active layout of power exchange business, deep binding of power exchange forerunners, is expected to open the company's second growth curve. It is estimated that in 2021-2023, the company will achieve a net profit of 356,000,000 yuan, EPS of 0.84, 1.10 and 1.38, corresponding to the closing price of 17.29, 13.16 and 10.55 times of July 9, which is covered for the first time and given the rating of "prudent overweight".
Risk hint: the prosperity of the power tools industry is not as good as expected; the competition in the industry is intensified; the promotion of the power exchange business is not as expected.
