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高盛大宗商品研究主管:看涨逻辑不变 近期下跌是买入机会

Head of commodity research at Goldman Sachs: Bullish logic unchanged, recent decline is a buying opportunity

新浪財經 ·  Jun 18, 2021 22:45

Goldman Sachs GroupJeff Currie of the group, one of the biggest bulls in commodities, said the recent sharp sell-off in commodity markets was a buying opportunity.

The Bloomberg commodity spot index fell 3.6% on Thursday, the biggest one-day decline in nearly 14 months, with soyabeans and platinum erasing this year's gains. Commodity markets have been hit by several bearish factors: the Fed signalled a potential rise in interest rates, the dollar strengthened, China acted to slow inflation and rainfall improved the outlook for US crop production.

Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group, acknowledged that it would take longer to recover from the current decline than other recent rebounds, but noted in a note to clients on Friday that the market continued to face supply shortages. He also noted that there was a difference between "spot" commodity price movements based on interest rate expectations and other market statements and price changes caused by expectations of future supply and demand.

"the only factor that can resist the rise in real prices is to raise interest rates, not to talk about raising interest rates," he said. "the bullish commodity argument has nothing to do with inflation risks or the Fed's forward guidance, but with scarcity and strong physical demand."

However, the latest pullback in commodity prices remains one of the biggest tests facing current supercycle theory. Goldman Sachs Group, who had predicted higher copper and oil prices, recently said China had lost its pricing power for key commodities.

Currie said the bank's "most credible long trade" was oil and still expected Brent crude to average $80 a barrel in the third quarter and could be well above that level. Given the positive signs in Europe and even India, global crude oil consumption could rise to 97 million barrels a day in the near future, he added.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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