Event Overview
According to the annual report of 2020 and the first quarter report of 2021, the company realized revenue of 713 million yuan (+ 13.96%), net profit of 139 million yuan (+ 1.27%), net profit of 109 million yuan (+ 47.32%), revenue of 216 million yuan (+ 123.34%), net profit of 38.87 million yuan (+ 244.43%) and non-return net profit of 37.94 million yuan (+ 249.40%) in the first quarter of 2021.
Analysis and judgment:
The company is the core supplier in the field of military and high-end civil optoelectronic transmission, including optoelectronic cables, optoelectronic components, optoelectronic system integration, optical fiber network, etc., mainly used in aviation, aerospace, warships, electronics, weapons five major military industrial fields, as well as rail transit, railway construction, Comac and 5G communications and other high-end civil fields, with strong qualification barriers and technical barriers.
On the revenue side, the revenue in 2020 was + 13.96%, mainly due to the obvious increase in sales of components and optoelectronic system products + 26.31%, as well as the expansion of the application fields of optical link-related products and the increase in the order volume of batch production models; 2021Q1 revenue + 123.34%, mainly due to the company's active increase in production capacity, strengthening product delivery management, and the low income of product delivery delays caused by the epidemic in the previous period.
On the profit side, the non-return net profit deducted in 2020 + 47.32% 2021Q1 deducted the non-return net profit + 249.40%, compared with the same period in 2019 + 63.06%, the performance achieved rapid growth, and the prosperity of the military cable and component industry has been continuously verified. The consolidated gross profit margin of 47.36% (- 1.61pct) decreased slightly in 2020, of which the gross profit margin of fluoroplastic cables was 64.82% (+ 3.52pct), that of components and optoelectronic systems was 41.68% (- 7.58pct), and that of 2021Q1 was 47.95% (+ 0.80pct) slightly.
On the expense side, the sales expense rate, management expense rate, R & D expense rate and financial expense rate in 2020 are 5.2%, 11.8%, 8.7% and 0.9%, respectively, compared with the same period last year.-0.92pcthand, 1.50pctUniverse, 0.16pct, respectively. The effect of improving quality and efficiency is remarkable.
The aviation sector has fully benefited from the large cycle of upgrading of military aircraft. The company is the core target of military equipment informatization, based on military optoelectronic cables, extension to optoelectronic cable components, optoelectronic system integration products, etc., the product category continues to expand. At present, China's military aircraft is in a large cycle of upgrading from the third-generation fighter to the third-and-a-half generation and the fourth-generation fighter. The accelerated installation of new aircraft has led to an explosive growth in the demand for military cables and cables, and the company, as the core supplier of military optoelectronic cables and components, will continue to benefit.
Rockets, satellites, missiles, manned spacecraft and other aerospace fields are in great demand. The company has a high market share in the aerospace field, long-term for the long March series of carrier rockets to provide a variety of high-performance wire and cable, including aerospace low-frequency cable, LVDS transmission cable, 1553B data bus cable, supporting to complete the launch mission of multi-type satellites. With the steady progress of various space projects such as the Internet of low-orbit satellites, deep space exploration and the construction of space stations, the company's space business is expected to maintain rapid growth.
FC optical fiber bus business is a new growth point of the company. The company is in the technical leading position in the domestic FC bus field, and the developed FC optical fiber bus series products have been fully verified and successfully installed in the new generation of airborne, shipborne and electronic communication mission systems. Benefiting from the intelligent development trend of advanced aviation equipment and the information transformation of destroyers in service, FC optical fiber bus business is in the stage of rapid development and is expected to double in the future.
Give full play to the advantages of military technology and quality control, and actively expand the market for high-end civilian products. The company is committed to the industrial development of high-end civilian products, actively expand civil fields with relatively high barriers to entry, such as rail transit, railway construction, Comac and 5G communications, and give full play to the technical capability and military industrial quality control capability formed in the development of military products. to enhance the localization rate of high-end civilian products, promote the application of military technology in the field of civilian products, and steadily increase the market position and order share in the above-mentioned four major areas of high-end civilian products.
Investment suggestion
The company is the core supplier in the field of military and high-end civil optoelectronic transmission, and is expected to maintain rapid growth in the future due to the high demand for prosperity in the military field and the urgent demand for domestic alternatives in the high-end civilian field. Considering that the actual income of the company in 2021 is lower than the previous forecast, and benefiting from the focus on the main business, the expenses have improved obviously during the period, and the profitability of 2021Q1 has increased significantly. The revenue in 2020-2022 has been adjusted from 1.030 billion yuan to 1.145 billion yuan, and the net profit of returning to the mother has been adjusted from 165 million yuan to 233 million yuan. It is estimated that the revenue in 2021-2023 will be 9.05 billion yuan, 1.145 billion yuan, 1.657 billion yuan. The net profit of return to the parent is 1.65 max, 233,336 million yuan, EPS is 0.57, 0.80 and 1.16 yuan, corresponding to PE is 22-16-11 times. Maintain the buy rating.
Risk hint
The business demand of FC optical fiber bus is not as expected, and the progress of civil expansion is not as expected.
