Oriental Garden (002310): Balance sheet is still under pressure

中金公司 · May 2, 2021 00:00

　　2020 和1Q21 业绩符合此前快报

　　东方园林公布2020 年业绩：收入87.3 亿元，同比增长7.3%，净亏损4.9 亿元，由2019 年盈利5,191 万元转负；4Q20 收入42.0亿元，同比下滑2.3%，净亏损4.5 亿元；1Q21 收入20.1 亿元，同比增长354.4%（较1Q19 增长97.9%），净亏损3.2 亿元，业绩符合快报，但低于我们此前预期，主要因毛利率较低。

　　2020 年毛利率同比下滑12.3ppt 至16.8%，管理费用大幅降低4.6ppt 至5.6%，我们认为是因收入结构中工业废弃物销售占比较高；资产+信用减值损失同比扩大79.5%至8.4 亿元，主要为计提坏账损失6.9 亿元；其他收益同比增加940%至2.9 亿元，因受到政府补助增加；净利率同比下滑6.3ppt 至-5.6%。1Q21 毛利率同比减少19.9ppt 至1.2%，期间费用率降低67.5ppt，净亏损占收入比重同比收窄49.1ppt 至15.9%。

　　2020 年经营活动现金净流出7.5 亿元，同比少流出5.8 亿元，我们认为因应收款周转有一定改善；投资活动现金多流出6.7 亿元至12.9 亿元，我们认为因上年同期处置资产造成高基数，资本开支则有所收窄。

　　发展趋势

　　工程收入延续下滑，回款有所改善。2020 年工程建设收入同比下滑40.7%，延续2018 年以来的下滑趋势，其中市政园林、水环境综合治理、全域旅游收入分别同比下滑33.7%、44.2%、41.7%；毛利率则同比回升2ppt 至32.8%。考虑公司加大工程回款力度（2020年末应收账款余额85.4 亿元，较年初减少7.1 亿元），并重点推进融资已落地项目的实施，我们建议关注后续工程业务的修复进展。

　　工业废弃物销售支撑收入，但拖累利润。2020 年下半年，工业废弃物销售业务收入达35.9 亿元，占比52%，较上半年的15%明显提升，这是支撑公司2020 年收入正增长的主要因素。然而当前该业务尚未形成盈利，全年毛利率为-4.1%，对公司总体利润造成拖累。我们建议关注该业务后续的盈利情况。

　　净负债率继续提升。2020 年末，公司有息负债余额达到152 亿元，持续攀升（2019、2020 年分别同比增加60 亿元、32 亿元），这导致2020 年净负债率达到103.1%，同比提升18.7ppt。我们建议关注公司债务率控制措施。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　我们维持2021 年归母净利润预测2.8 亿元不变，引入2022 年归母净利润预测2.9 亿元。公司当前价交易于0.8x 2021e P/B 和0.8x2022e P/B；因公司资产负债表仍有一定压力，我们下调目标价23%至3.7 元，对应0.8x 2021e P/B 和0.8x 2022e P/B，1%上行空间，维持中性评级。

　　风险

　　工业废弃物销售盈利不及预期，净负债率修复不及预期。

2020 and 1Q21 performance are in line with the previous KuaiBao.

Oriental Garden announced its 2020 results: income 8.73 billion yuan, an increase of 7.3% over the same period last year, a net loss of 490 million yuan, from a profit of 51.91 million yuan in 2019 to negative; 4Q20 revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.3%, a net loss of 450 million yuan 1Q21's revenue was 2.01 billion yuan, an increase of 354.4% over the same period last year (97.9% over 1Q19) and a net loss of 320 million yuan. The performance was in line with KuaiBao, but lower than we had expected, mainly due to low gross profit margin.

The gross profit margin fell 12.3ppt to 16.8% in 2020 compared with the same period last year, and the management fee decreased significantly to 5.6%, which we believe is due to the relatively high proportion of industrial waste sales in the income structure; the asset + credit impairment loss increased by 79.5% to 840 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the provision of bad debt loss of 690 million yuan; other income increased by 940% to 290 million yuan compared with the same period last year, due to the increase in government subsidies. Net interest rates fell 6.3ppt to minus 5.6 per cent year-on-year. 1Q21 gross margin fell 19.9ppt to 1.2 per cent year-on-year, expense rate decreased 67.5ppt during the period, and net loss as a share of income narrowed 49.1ppt to 15.9 per cent year-on-year.

In 2020, the net cash outflow from operating activities was 750 million yuan, which was 580 million yuan less than the same period last year. We think that due to the improvement in the turnover of receivables, the cash outflow from investment activities has increased by 670 million yuan to 1.29 billion yuan, and we believe that capital expenditure has narrowed due to the high base caused by the disposal of assets in the same period last year.

Trend of development

Project revenue continued to decline, and the rebate has improved. Revenue from engineering construction fell 40.7% in 2020 from the same period last year, continuing the downward trend since 2018, with revenues from municipal gardens, comprehensive treatment of water environment and global tourism falling by 33.7%, 44.2% and 41.7% respectively, while gross profit margin rebounded to 32.8%. Considering that the company will increase the intensity of project payback (the balance of accounts receivable at the end of 2020 is 8.54 billion yuan, which is 710 million yuan less than that at the beginning of the year), and focus on promoting the implementation of financing projects that have been landed, we suggest that we should pay attention to the repair progress of the follow-up project business.

Industrial waste sales support income, but a drag on profits. In the second half of 2020, the revenue from industrial waste sales reached 3.59 billion yuan, accounting for 52%, up from 15% in the first half of the year, which is the main factor supporting the company's positive revenue growth in 2020. However, the business has not yet made a profit, with a full-year gross profit margin of-4.1%, which is a drag on the company's overall profit. We suggest that we pay attention to the follow-up profitability of the business.

The net debt ratio continues to rise. At the end of 2020, the company's interest-bearing debt balance reached 15.2 billion yuan, which continued to rise (6 billion yuan in 2019 and 3.2 billion yuan in 2020 compared with the same period last year, respectively), resulting in a net debt ratio of 103.1% in 2020, an increase in 18.7ppt over the same period last year. We suggest that we pay attention to the control measures of the company's debt ratio.

Profit forecast and valuation

We keep the 2021 net profit forecast of 280 million yuan unchanged, and introduce the forecast of 290 million yuan of net profit of 2022. The company's current price is trading at 0.8x 2021e Pmax B and 0.8x2022e Pmax B; due to some pressure on the company's balance sheet, we lowered our target price by 23% to RMB 3.70, corresponding to the 1% upside space for 0.8x 2021e Pmax B and 0.8x2022e Pamp B, maintaining a neutral rating.

Risk.

The profit of industrial waste sales is lower than expected, and the repair of net debt ratio is not as expected.

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东方园林(002310)：资产负债表仍承压

Oriental Garden (002310): Balance sheet is still under pressure

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