Main points of investment:
The company released the 2020 annual report, the performance is basically in line with expectations. The company achieved operating income of 2.02 billion yuan (YOY-4.8%) in 2020, net profit belonging to shareholders of the listed company was 353 million yuan (YOY 88.5%), basic earnings per share was 0.28 yuan, 2020Q4 realized operating income of 573 million yuan (YOY 11.4%) in a single quarter, and net profit returned to its mother was 82 million yuan (YOY107.0%). In the face of the complex external environment in 2020, the company actively adjusts its business strategy, improves management efficiency, increases the market development of its main business, and its annual performance is basically in line with expectations.
Profitability continues to improve, and the expense rate is steadily falling. 1) the company's 20-year gross profit margin is 27.24% (YOY+4.51pct), the net profit rate is 17.46% (YOY+8.65pct); the company's fourth-quarter gross profit margin is 19.52% (YOY-13.07pct), and the net profit rate is 14.29% (YOY+6.55pct). The company's profitability has improved significantly compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the vigorous development of the main business of high gross margin and the compression of low-margin businesses such as the sale of materials. 2) the company's sales / management / finance / R & D expenses in 2020 are 0.73, 0.39, 0.058 million yuan respectively, and the expense rate is 3.62% 1.95%, 0.37% and 2.88% (YoY-2.09/+0.21/-1.57/+0.58pct), respectively, and the overall sales and financial expense rates are significantly reduced.
Focus on the development of the main industry, optimize the product structure and enhance the added value. Over the past 20 years, the company's main business products pea protein, vermicelli and dietary fiber achieved a total operating income of 1.273 billion yuan, an increase of 12.49% over the same period last year; the comprehensive gross profit margin of the main business reached 40.94%, an increase of 2.2pct over the same period last year. In terms of specific products, 1) Pea protein: at present, the company's largest main business has achieved revenue of 653 million yuan in 20 years, an increase of 22.16% over the same period last year, accounting for 32.35% of total revenue, an increase of 7.15pct over the same period last year, a gross profit margin of 59.75% and an increase of 2.43pct over the same period last year. 2) fans: the revenue reached 491 million yuan, an increase of 0.43% over the same period last year, accounting for 24.29% of the total revenue, an increase of 1.27pct over the same period last year, and a gross profit margin of 8.85%, a decrease of 4.18pct over the same period last year. At present, the company is still the largest fan manufacturer in the industry, with a planned fan production capacity of 100000 tons in the next three years. 3) Dietary fiber: revenue 129 million yuan, year-on-year increase 19.19%, accounting for 6.39% of total revenue, 1.29pct, gross profit margin 67.75%, year-on-year increase of 4.75pctbot 4) Pea dried starch: revenue of 338 million yuan, year-on-year increase of 4.90%, accounting for 16.72% of total revenue, year-on-year growth of 1.55pct 5) other products: realized revenue of 409 million yuan, a decrease of 38.78% over the same period last year, accounting for 20.26% of total revenue, and a decrease of 11.24pct compared with the same period last year.
As one of the substitutes for animal protein, pea protein has a broad prospect. According to the latest research by BCG and Blue HorizonCorporation, a Boston consulting group, 1/10 of the meat, eggs, dairy products and seafood consumed worldwide by 2035 will be made from alternative proteins, and the market will grow by 22%, with a market share of 11%, up from 2% in 2020.
According to the company announcement, the current pea protein production capacity of the company is about 70,000 tons, accounting for nearly 40% of the global pea protein market share. in the future, the company will expand pea protein production capacity at the rate of 20% per year, and at the same time, it will further optimize the product structure. continue to increase the proportion of high-end pea protein, the new pea protein production capacity in the next three years is mainly high-end protein.
The company is the leader of pea protein supply and maintains an overweight rating. The company's Q4 is disturbed by unfavorable factors such as the rising cost of raw materials in 2020. we downgrade the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's overall net profit from 2021 to 2022 is 4.55 yuan and 599 million yuan respectively (the original forecast is 4.9 yuan and 610 million yuan), and the net profit for 2023 is 755 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 33, 25, 20 times. The company is currently a leading enterprise in pea protein supply, and capacity expansion ensures short-and medium-term performance. The company has officially entered the downstream plant meat field, and with the increase in demand in the future, it is expected to drive performance growth and maintain an overweight rating.
Risk tips: rising prices of raw materials, changes in market distribution, food hygiene and safety.