Main points of investment
Event: in 2020, the company achieved operating income of 220 million yuan, a decrease of 14.4% over the same period last year, a net profit of 56.62 million yuan, a decrease of 11.3% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 42.75 million yuan after deducting non-return, a decrease of 30% over the same period last year. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 3 yuan for every 10 shares and a dividend yield of 0.4%.
Q4's performance grew rapidly, and the expenses decreased during the period: from a quarterly point of view, 2020Q1 realized operating income of 20.37 million yuan and net profit of-5.33 million yuan; Q2 realized operating income of 58.49 million yuan and net profit of 24.41 million yuan; Q3 realized operating income of 65.06 million yuan (year-on-year-8.2%) and net profit of 19.62 million yuan (year-on-year-3.4%); Q4 realized operating income of 7795 yuan (year-on-year + 25%) With a net profit of 17.93 million yuan (+ 100.6% compared with the same period last year) and rapid growth in single-quarter performance, we expect 2021Q1 to maintain the high performance growth trend of Q4 as the epidemic stabilizes. In 2020, the company's sales expenses were 50.08 million yuan (- 8.5%), and the sales expense rate was 22.57% (+ 1.45pp), mainly due to the reduction of marketing affected by COVID-19; management expenses were 18.02 million yuan (- 20.4%), management expenses rate was 8.12% (- 0.62pp); R & D expenses were 24.13 million yuan (- 5.1%), and R & D expenses rate was 10.88% (+ 1.06pp).
The epidemic affected the income of allergy reagents and the growth of autoimmune reagents: affected by COVID-19 's epidemic in the first half of 2020, the demand for testing reagents in hospitals and testing institutions decreased, resulting in a great impact on the company's product sales. From a business point of view, the company's revenue from allergy products reached 130 million yuan in 2020, a decrease of 23.9% over the same period last year. However, due to the increasing clinical demand for quantitative testing, we expect that the revenue from allergy quantitative testing products will grow by more than 50%. The revenue of autoimmune reagent products reached 73.8 million yuan, an increase of 10.5% over the same period last year, mainly due to the growth of autoimmune chemiluminescence products.
The leading position of allergy industry has been continuously consolidated, and self-immune reagents have been continuously imported and replaced: by the end of 2020, the company has registered 13 new IgE allergens and 25 allergens that have been established for research and development, including allergens that have obtained registration certificates for sale and allergens under registration and research and development, covering a total of 94 allergens, including registered and under research projects. The items that can be detected by allergen single point test and combined test will cover 111 allergen testing items, and the continuous increase in the number of allergens will continue to consolidate the company's leading position in the industry. In addition, the company's allergic chemiluminescence products are in the registration stage and are expected to become a new growth point for the company's profits in the future. In terms of autoimmunity reagents, the company has increased 16 auto-immunity projects in 2020. With the introduction of chemiluminescence high-speed instruments and the continuous enrichment of testing menus, the company's sales performance of autoimmunity testing products continues to grow and its market share continues to expand. However, at present, the market share of foreign-funded enterprises is still as high as 80%, and there is still plenty of room for import substitution in the future.
Profit Forecast and Investment rating: we maintain the forecast of return net profit for 2021-2022 is 113,000,000 yuan, and the estimated return net profit for 2023 is 203 million yuan. The current market capitalization corresponds to 39 times, 29 times and 22 times of PE in 2021-2023, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the risk of intensified market competition; the risk that product research and development is not as expected.