The company issued a forecast of KuaiBao's 2020 results and 2021 results. 2020 the company's revenue was + 9.6% year-on-year, operating profit was + 7.1% year-on-year, and home net profit was + 3.1% year-on-year, which was lower than expected. the lower profit growth rate is mainly due to the increase in expenses and effective tax rates under business development. 4Q20 new signing faster recovery, on-hand orders to provide performance guarantee. Under the low base, the 1Q21 performance is expected to increase by 40%, 60%, and the 2021 growth rate is expected to be repaired when the industry recovers. Taking into account the impact of the regulation and control policies of the three red lines of real estate, as well as the company's increased efforts to expand sales and increase expenditure on the construction of information-based China Taiwan in the medium term, we downgrade our net profit forecast for 2021-2022 to 2.4 billion yuan (the original forecast is 390 million yuan), corresponding to the EPS forecast of 1.55 million yuan, and the current price corresponding to PE is 23x/19x. Considering that the valuation hub since the listing of the company is 31x (the consensus forecast for the next 12 months PE),), we give the company 30 times PE in 2021 (about 3% discount to the valuation hub), corresponding to a target price of 46.60 yuan, maintaining the buy "rating".
2020 the company's revenue is + 9.6% year-on-year, operating profit is + 7.1% year-on-year, and home net profit is + 3.1% year-on-year, and the performance is lower than expected. The company announced that its 2020 revenue was 2.56 billion yuan (year-on-year + 9.6%; unaudited, the same below), operating profit 230 million yuan (year-on-year + 7.1%), and home net profit 190 million yuan (year-on-year + 3.1%), which was lower than expected. the profit growth rate was lower than expected, mainly due to the increase in expenses and effective tax rates under business development. In a single quarter, 4Q20 revenue / operating profit / net profit compared with the same period last year-9.3% Universe 7.4% Maxim 13.7% mai 4Q20 entered the settlement peak, and the growth of operating profit was better than that of revenue growth, but the increase in tax rate dragged down the net profit compared with the same period last year.
4Q20 new signing faster recovery, on-hand orders to provide performance guarantee. The company's 4Q20 newly signed order is 780 million yuan (month-to-month ratio + 76%), and the unsigned order is 1.28 billion yuan (month-to-month ratio + 33%). The decrease in the proportion of bidding for strategic agreements under the influence of the epidemic slows down the growth of 1-3Q20 orders. with the concentrated release of 4Q20 general bidding, the company's newly signed single ring recovers relatively quickly, which contributes to the follow-up performance growth. As of 4Q20, a total of 2.95 billion yuan of unfinished orders have been signed, and the ratio of in-hand orders to operating income in 2020 is 1.2x, which provides a guarantee for the growth of income and profits.
Low base 1Q21 performance forecast high growth, the industry recovery under 2021 performance growth is expected to repair. The company estimates that the net profit of 1Q21 homing is 2808-32.09 million yuan, which is + 40% muri 60% compared with the same period last year, which is high under the low base of shutdown and market closure at the beginning of the 1Q20 epidemic; compared with 1Q19, the two-year compound growth rate is 17%. 25%. Taking into account the completion of repair and the medium-and long-term improvement trend of fine decoration penetration, we expect the company's performance growth rate to be repaired in 2021 as the overall industry recovers.
Risk factors: the improvement of fine decoration penetration is not as expected; the management and control of business development costs is not as expected.
Investment suggestion: taking into account the impact of the regulation and control policies of the three red lines of real estate, the company's efforts to expand sales in the medium term and the increase in expenditure on the construction of information-based China Taiwan, we lower our net profit forecast for 2021-2022 to RMB 240,000,000 (original forecast is 30gamma), corresponding to EPS forecast of 1.55cm (2.56 yuan). The current price corresponds to PE 23x/19x. Considering that the valuation hub since the listing of the company is 31x (the consensus forecast for the next 12 months PE),), we give the company 30 times PE in 2021 (about 3% discount to the valuation hub), corresponding to a target price of 46.60 yuan, maintaining the buy "rating".