In May this year, Beijing Universal Studios, the fifth Universal Studios in the world, will open after Hollywood (which opened in 1964), Orlando, Osaka (which opened in 2001) and Singapore. Speaking of Universal Studios, we may not be familiar with it, but when it comes to Disney, we are familiar with it. In fact, Universal Studios is comparable to Disney theme parks, and based on its immersive, subjective entertainment experience, visitors of all ages can take risks with their favorite characters and are more popular with adults.
After the epidemic, tourism consumption has once again entered people's life planning, and the capital market has also brought investment opportunities.
01
Who owns it?
In addition to the world-famous Universal Studios theme park, the first phase of the project also includes a comprehensive business body that integrates retail, catering and entertainment-Beijing Global City Avenue, the world's first global theme resort, and the first resort under the Nuojin brand of the first Travel Group.
Beijing Global Resort is owned by Beijing International Resort Co., Ltd. Beijing International Resort Co., Ltd. is a joint venture owned by Beijing Shouhuan Cultural Tourism Investment Co., Ltd. (70%) and Comcast NBC Global Business Unit-Global theme Parks and Resorts (30%). Beijing Shouhuan Cultural Tourism Investment Co., Ltd. is jointly owned by five Beijing state-owned enterprises, including one of the largest tourism enterprises in China.Beijing Capital Travel Group (with a stake of about 52%).
The Beijing Universal Resort, which covers an area of 4 square kilometers, opened in May this year, followed by two and three phases of the project, when Universal Studios in Beijing will surpass Universal Studios in Orlando to become the world's largest global theme park.It is estimated that the annual number of visitors to the first phase of Universal Studios in Beijing is expected to be 12 million-15 million.Shanghai Disneyland receives about 12 million visitors a year. The second and third phases will introduce IP of Chinese culture, such as Sun WuKong, as well as the construction of a water park.
The per capita consumption of Shanghai Disneyland is about 2000 yuan. It is estimated that the annual income of the first phase of Universal Studios in Beijing will reach 24 billion yuan to 30 billion yuan, and when completed, the annual income will be more than 60 billion yuan.
02
Who will benefit?
Many people will think that the surrounding land and house prices will further appreciate, as well as Yuan Longyatu, which is the exclusive owner of Universal Studios IP (up 40% + within the month), but now has little to do with ordinary investors.
And the huge demand for food and accommodation that will be created soon will also benefit the companies of the first Travel Group (first Travel Hotel, Quanjude and Wangfujing) to some extent, among which the first Travel Hotel is the most obvious.
According to the performance forecast, the non-net profit of the first Travel Hotel will be-520 million yuan to-59, 0 yuan in 2020, a decrease of 1.33648 billion yuan to 1.40648 billion yuan compared with 2019. The non-net profit of the mother deduction in 2019 is 816.48 million yuan. The company made a big loss in the first half of the year and began to make a profit in the second half of the year. In September 2020, RevPAR levels returned to 90% of the same period last year.
The first Travel Hotel is determined to speed up the opening of stores throughout the year.The number of new stores opened in 2020 reached an all-time high. The company increases the size of mid-and high-end hotels.By the end of September 2020, the number of middle and high-end hotels reached 1079, accounting for 23.26%, and the number of guest rooms was 121213, accounting for 28.8% of the total. This will directly benefit from the opening of Universal Studios.
The loss of the first Travel Hotel last year is the norm in the industry, and the hotel industry suffered a heavy blow in 2020, while the hotel leader, with abundant capital, is speeding up the layout, expanding against the trend, and seizing the core area resources, mainly joining. For example, Huazhu Group, as the market capitalization leader of domestic hotels, has a net loss of 2.2 billion yuan belonging to Huazhu Group, excluding Deutsche Hotels, which was acquired at the beginning of 2020.
In the fourth quarter of 2020, domestic hotel RevPAR grew by-2.4% compared with the same period last year, which was also significantly repaired. In 2020, Huazhu opened 40 rental hotels and 1609 managed franchises and franchised hotels, and closed 41 leased hotels and 556 managed franchised and franchised hotels. Overall, the company is still expanding rapidly. Follow-up can pay attention to the opportunity of the hotel leader.
And then there is tourism.
The recent trend of overseas Chinese Town An is completely different from that of real estate stocks. Let's first look at its revenue composition in 2020.
In fact, overseas Chinese City An is the founder and leader of China's local theme park industry. In 2020, the company's 24 scenic spots, 24 hotels, 1 travel agency and 4 open tourism areas received a total of 42.825 million tourists, returning to 82% in 2019. The recovery rate of cultural and tourism business is significantly higher than the industry average. In the global theme park group ranking jointly released by (TEA) and AECOM in 2020, overseas Chinese Town Group, the controlling shareholder, surpassed Universal Studios to become the top three global theme parks for the first time, ranking closely behind the international giants Disney Group and Merlin Group.
Presumably, when everyone celebrates the Spring Festival on the spot, the projects under the overseas Chinese Town are always at the top of the list, but they are usually overcrowded. In addition, the company has constructed a comprehensive development model, created a "tourism + real estate" model, and put forward the development model of "culture + tourism + urbanization" and "tourism + Internet + finance". Make full use of the platform advantages of the group. Focus on short-term and fast operation, light assets, real estate projects that can produce immediate benefits (the cost of acquiring land under the "tourism + real estate" mode is significantly lower than the average cost of land acquisition in the open market). Financially, the companyIn 2020, the "three red lines" became "green"; the net cash flow of business activities for the whole year was 21.286 billion yuan, the first time since 2017, an increase of about 26.4 billion over the same period last year.
03
What else can be done now?
The news of the opening of Universal Studios has long been speculated in the market, and related concept stocks have rebounded a lot, but the underlying logic isThe demand of Chinese people for tourism consumption continues to be exuberant.With the improvement of people's living standardsThe trend of consumption escalation will not change.But strong demand does not mean that all companies can get dividends, and not everyone can eat meat at the investment level.
Returning to the reality of the capital market, too many "warm ducks in the river are the first to feel the smell of spring", as it is difficult for ordinary investors to grasp the initial stage of the market, but fortunately, we can still pass.Continue to pay attention, gain insight into the trend changes, and patiently buy companies with excellent business models that adapt to these changes at a reasonable valuation.This is at least in line with one of Buffett's investment tenets: "the first rule of investment is to ensure the safety of the principal and never lose money; second, please refer to the first." After the Spring Festival, the stock market adjusted sharply, giving us all a valuable valuation lesson, and to make a profit, the first thing is to survive.
After reviewing the investment opportunities, I still hope that the epidemic will be over as soon as possible, that life can be restored to what it used to be, play happily and make money easily.
Gronghui statement:The views in the article come from the original author and do not represent Gronghui's point of view and position. In particular, it is reminded that investment decisions should be based on independent thinking. The contents of this article are for reference only, not as practical suggestions, but at your own risk.。