2021 sales target indicates an 11.3% YoY increase in contracted sales. In 2020, total contracted sales increased by 16.6% YoY to RMB42.2 bn. ASP in 2020 slightly declined by 3.1% YoY to RMB 10,224 per sq.m. The Company set a new contracted sales target of RMB47 bn in 2021. Saleable resources value to be launched in 2021 is expected to reach RMB67 bn, representing a target sell-through rate of 70.1%. Modern Land has so far accomplished 12.0% of the new 2021 sales target, during Jan.-Feb. 2021.
Steady expansion in land bank w ill su p p ort fu ture grow th. During 2020, tneCompany acquired 24 new land plots with an estimated GFA of 4.626 mn sq.m.As a result, total land bank GFA increased from 11.933 mn sq.m as at the end of 2019 to 14.758 mn sq.m as at the end of 2020. Total saleable resources value reached RMB280 bn as at the end of 2020, comprising (i) confirmed ownership portion of RMB170 bn, and (ii) locked potential portion of RMB110 bn.
Industrial collaboration is expected to rem ain as a key g ro w th d river. In2020, approximately 52.5% and 5.9% of the Company's newly acquired land reserve value was sourced from industrial collaboration and integration of primary & secondary land development, respectively. We expect diversified land acquisition channel to help the Company with more effective land cost control and reduction in reliance on bidding, auction and listing.
"Green" development strategies will bear fruit in multiple aspects, such as green finance, green project development, brand reputation and ESG responsibilities.
We have slightly revised down our target price to HK$1.34, representing 617% discount to its 2021E NAV of HK$3.50 per share, 4.6x 2021 underlying PER and 0.3x 2021 PBR. Investm ent rating is m aintained as "A ccum ulate". Risk factors: lower-than -expected contracted sales, uncertainties in industrial collaboration and integration of primary and secondary development.
2021年的銷售目標表明合同銷售額同比增長11.3%。2020年,合同總銷售額同比增長16.6%,達到422億元人民幣。2020年的建築面積同比小幅下降3.1%,至每平方米10,224元人民幣。該公司設定了2021年新的合同銷售目標為470億元人民幣。2021年推出的可銷售資源價值預計將達到670億元人民幣,目標銷售率為70.1%。到目前為止,現代置地已經完成了2021年1-2月新銷售目標的12.0%。2021年
土地儲備的穩步擴張將支持未來的增長。於2020年,TneCompany購得24幅新地塊,預計總建築面積為4.626平方米,因此,土地儲備總建築面積由2019年底的11.933平方米增至2020年底的14.758平方米。截至2020年底,可出售資源總價值達到人民幣2800億元,包括(I)確認所有權部分人民幣1700億元,以及(Ii)鎖定潛在部分人民幣1100億元。
產業合作有望成為這條河流的重要支柱。於2020年,本公司新收購土地儲備價值約52.5%及5.9%分別來自產業合作及一、二級土地開發整合。我們期望多元化的土地收購渠道將有助於本公司更有效地控制土地成本,減少對招標、拍賣和上市的依賴。
“綠色”發展戰略將在綠色金融、綠色項目開發、品牌美譽度和ESG責任等多個方面結出碩果。
我們將目標價略微下調至1.34港元,較其2021年資產淨值每股3.50港元、2021基礎每股4.6倍和2021 PBR 0.3倍有617%的折讓。投資評級維持為“A級”。風險因素:合同銷售額低於預期,產業協作不確定,一二次開發一體化。