Carbon neutralization is good for new energy, and photovoltaic power generation is booming. In September 2020, China proposed that carbon dioxide emissions should reach its peak by 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060. The Central Economic work Conference in December listed "doing a good job of carbon peak and carbon neutralization" as one of the key tasks in 2021. As one of the renewable energy industries, photovoltaic power generation will become an important substitute for coal power in the future. The vice chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that the total newly installed capacity of photovoltaic in China may be between 350GW-450GW during the 14th five-year Plan period, and the prosperity of photovoltaic power generation will improve.
The prospect of building photovoltaic is broad. Distributed photovoltaic has the advantage of local consumption. Since 2016, the installed proportion of distributed photovoltaic in China has increased from 13.3% to 32.2%. According to the different ways of combining with buildings, distributed photovoltaic can be divided into BAPV (power generation system as appendage) and BIPV (power generation system and building integration). At present, the existing building area in the country is about 80 billion square meters, and the new building area is about 4 billion square meters every year. If 5% of the new building area is built by building photovoltaic, it can reach the installed capacity of nearly 20GW, and the market prospect is broad.
The company lays out its photovoltaic business ahead of schedule. The company established China New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. in 2017, committed to the investment, construction and operation of new energy projects, with wind energy, solar energy, hydropower energy development and operation as the core, other renewable energy coordinated development. At present, CNS New Energy has landed related EPC photovoltaic power generation projects in Bayannur, Hohhot, Xuchang and other cities, and won state subsidies in 2019.
It is expected to rely on its own advantages to drive the development of BIPV (BAPV) business. The company and its subsidiary Cosco New Energy have been undertaking photovoltaic new energy projects as well as energy conservation projects, such as Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Terminal T2 photovoltaic power project, Wuyi village-level collective photovoltaic power station project, and the company has BIPV and BAPV project construction experience, in addition, the company also holds Guangzhou Wuyang Honda photovoltaic power station, installed capacity 3.36MW, annual generating capacity of about 2.6 million kW / h.
We believe that in the future, the company is expected to rely on the company's resources in the field of architectural decoration, as well as the construction experience of BIPV (BAPV) projects, to further open up the company's market in the field of building photovoltaic and create profit growth points.
Give the company a "buy" rating. Combined with the company's performance KuaiBao, revise the profit forecast for 2020.
Keeping the profit forecast for the next two years unchanged, the company is expected to increase its homed net profit by 15%, 50%, 22%, 0.40, 0.59 and 0.72 yuan from 2020 to 2022.
Risk hint: photovoltaic business does not advance as expected, performance forecast and valuation judgment do not meet expectations.
