Beibu Gulf Port (000582): force majeure stress test: deducting non-return net profit in 2020 + 10.7%

華西證券 · Mar 8, 2021 00:00

　　事件概述

　　3 月8 日晚间北部湾港发布2020 年业绩快报，2020 年公司营收53.68 亿元，同比+12%，归母净利润10.68 亿元，同比+8.49%,扣非后归母净利润10.72 亿元，同比+10.66%，每股收益0.65元。

　　2020 年公司在疫情、超强台风和澳煤进口限制等不可抗力叠加的压力测试下，业绩仍完成两位数增速增长，反映了推动北部湾港发展的驱动因素具有极强的韧性。

　　2020 年，上半年国内外先后爆发的疫情、10 月份史上最强台风季、11-12 月澳煤进口限制，多种不可抗力因素叠加，客观上对北部湾港的增长逻辑进行了一次很强的压力测算，测试的结果是：北部湾港2020 年货物吞吐量同比+14.8%，营收+12%，扣非后归母净利润同比+10.7%，充分反映了推动北部湾港发展的驱动因素具有极强的韧性。

　　Q4 受台风、澳煤进口限制、营业外收支等短期因素影响，单季扣非归母净利润同比-1.9%，但长期增长逻辑不变。

　　2020 年Q4 超强台风月、澳煤进口限制等因素影响，货物吞吐量6548.5 万吨，同比+4.5%，增速较前三季度有所下降。Q4 公司实现营收15.5 亿元，同比+8.4%，我们判断营收增速高于吞吐量增速的原因为公司Q4 单吨货物收入同比回升。

　　2020 年Q4 公司营业利润3.55 亿元，同比+6.9%，利润总额3.04亿元，同比-9%。我们判断Q4 公司约有0.5 亿元的营业外支出导致当季业绩同比下降。

　　2021 年前2 月北部湾港吞吐量在去年高基数基础上实现大幅增长，为全年稳定增长奠下基调。

　　2020 年前2 月北部湾港是全国主要港口中鲜有的逆势大增的港口，2020 年前2 月在疫情影响下吞吐量仍高速增长，货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量增速分别为+18.05%/+27.63%，而同期全国港口货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量同比增速分别为-5.9%/-10.5%。在2020 年高基数的基础上，2021 年前2 月北部湾港货物吞吐量、集装箱吞吐量分别实现+12.3%/+41.7%,为全年的稳定增长奠下基调。

　　投资建议：我们重申看好北部湾港在“三个结构性调整”背景下的长期增长逻辑，维持对公司2021-22 年盈利预测，维持21.6 元/股目标价，重申“买入”。

　　我们维持对公司2021-22 年归母净利润分别为14.5/17.4 亿元的盈利预测，对应EPS 分别为0.89/1.07 元，同时按照公司此次公告修正2020 年的业绩为10.7 亿元，对应EPS 0.65 元。

　　按照2021 年3 月8 日10.94 元/股的收盘价，对应2020-22 年的PE 分别为16.74/12.36/10.27 倍。我们重申公司21.6 元/股的目标价，重申“买入”评级。

　　风险提示

　　宏观经济环境存在下行超预期可能；疫情持续时间；短期北部湾港公告的可转债转股价尚未确定；短期内公司单吨货物收入存在波动可能。

Overview of events

On the evening of March 8, Beibuwan Port announced its 2020 results, KuaiBao, with revenue of 5.368 billion yuan in 2020, + 12% year-on-year, and net profit of 1.068 billion yuan, + 8.49%, and 1.072 billion yuan, + 10.66%, and 0.65 yuan per share, respectively.

In 2020, under the stress test of force majeure superimposed by the epidemic, super typhoons and Australian coal import restrictions, the company still achieved double-digit growth, reflecting the strong resilience of the drivers driving the development of the Beibu Gulf Port.

In 2020, the epidemic broke out successively at home and abroad in the first half of 2020, the strongest typhoon season in October, the restrictions on Australian coal imports from November to December, and a variety of force majeure factors superimposed, objectively, a strong pressure calculation was made on the growth logic of Beibu Gulf Port. the test results are as follows: year-on-year cargo throughput of Beibu Bay Port in 2020 + 14.8%, revenue + 12%, deduction of non-return net profit + 10.7% year on year It fully reflects the strong toughness of the driving factors that promote the development of Beibu Gulf Port.

Q4 due to typhoon, Australian coal import restrictions, non-operating income and other short-term factors, single-quarter non-return net profit is-1.9% compared with the same period last year, but the long-term growth logic remains unchanged.

Due to the influence of factors such as Q4 super typhoon month and Australian coal import restrictions in 2020, the cargo throughput was 65.485 million tons, + 4.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than that in the first three quarters. Q4 company achieved 1.55 billion yuan in revenue, + 8.4% year-on-year. We judge that the reason why the revenue growth rate is higher than the throughput growth rate is that the company's Q4 per ton cargo revenue rebounded compared with the same period last year.

In 2020, the operating profit of Q4 company was 355 million yuan, + 6.9% compared with the same period last year, and the total profit was 304 million yuan,-9% compared with the same period last year. We judge that the Q4 company's non-operating expenses of about 50 million yuan led to a decline in the performance of the quarter compared with the same period last year.

In the first two months of 2021, the throughput of Beibu Gulf Port increased significantly on the basis of last year's high base, setting the tone for stable growth for the whole year.

Beibu Gulf Port is one of the few major ports in the country that went against the trend in February 2020. Under the influence of the epidemic in February 2020, the throughput was still growing at a high speed, with cargo throughput and container throughput growing by + 18.05% and 27.63% respectively, while the year-on-year growth rates of cargo throughput and container throughput in the same period were-5.9% and 10.5% respectively. On the basis of a high base in 2020, the cargo throughput and container throughput of Beibu Gulf Port reached + 12.3% and 41.7% respectively in the first two months of 2021, setting the tone for stable growth for the whole year.

Investment suggestion: we reiterate that we are optimistic about the long-term growth logic of Beibu Gulf Port in the context of the "three structural adjustments", maintain the company's profit forecast for 2021-22, maintain the target price of 21.60 yuan per share, and reiterate "buy".

We maintain the profit forecast of the company's 2021-22 net profit of 1.45 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.89 billion yuan, and revised the 2020 performance to 1.07 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 0.65 yuan according to the company's announcement.

According to the closing price of 10.94 yuan per share on March 8, 2021, the corresponding PE for 2020-22 is 16.74, 12.36 and 10.27 times, respectively. We reaffirm the company's target price of 21.6 yuan per share and reiterate its "buy" rating.

Risk hint

The macroeconomic environment may decline more than expected; the duration of the epidemic; the short-term announcement of the Beibu Gulf Port convertible bond conversion stock price has not yet been determined; the company's per ton cargo income may fluctuate in the short term.

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北部湾港(000582)：不可抗力压力测试：2020年扣非归母净利+10.7%

Beibu Gulf Port (000582): force majeure stress test: deducting non-return net profit in 2020 + 10.7%

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