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Wall St Week Ahead-Sideshow or main event? GameStop stock ride weighed as bubble warning

Wall St Week Ahead-Sideshow or main event? GameStop stock ride weighed as bubble warning

華爾街周即將到來-側劇還是主要事件?GameStop股票上漲被視為泡沫警告
路透社 ·  2021/01/30 06:36

By Lewis Krauskopf
   NEW YORK, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Some investors are growing concerned that wild swings in GameStop and other stocks driven by small-time traders could be fresh signs of overexuberance that foreshadow volatility for the broader stock market.
   GameStop shares closed up 400% for the week after the video game chain's stock became a battleground between retail traders and Wall Street professionals, a tussle that captivated investors the world over.
   Some market-watchers see those massive gains, as well as the moves in American Airlines and other heavily shorted stocks, as a sideshow in a rally underpinned by Federal Reserve support, anticipated coronavirus relief spending and expectations that vaccines against COVID-19 will help the U.S. economy rebound later this year.
   Fed Chairman Jerome Powell earlier this week pushed back on suggestions that the central bank's super-low interest rates and massive bond purchases were creating asset bubbles.
   But those comments failed to quell some investors' worries that the Fed's monetary policy has encouraged excessive risk-taking across broader markets: The S&P 500 is up 66% since March and stocks stand near their highest valuations in two decades.
   The action in GameStop and other stocks “definitely gives us some cause for concern," said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at D.A. Davidson. "At the very least, you have to consider that there's a chance of a market correction."
   The moves also drew some comparisons to the internet stock mania two decades earlier.
   "Just the fact that you have a group of investors that are really chasing abnormal gains, that’s what is reminiscent of the dot-com bubble,” Ragan said.
   Some barometers of general over-exuberance are already flashing: Citi said its “Panic/Euphoria” model is in "elevated euphoric territory." And the latest fund manager survey from BofA Global Research noted that allocations to cash had dropped rapidly, indicating that investors are putting more funds into riskier assets.
   The frenzied trading dominated the news on Wall Street this week, even as Apple Inc , Microsoft Corp and other corporate heavyweights reported quarterly results. The S&P 500 fell 3.3% for the week, with trading volume surging above 24 billion shares on Wednesday, well above the 14.4 billion-share average of the past 20 sessions. The CBOE volatility index  closed above 30 points this week for the first time since early November.
   One potential catalyst for further volatility could come if hedge funds are forced to sell out of positions in order to cover failed short selling bets, although it was unclear whether there would be enough of such selling to create a broad risk to equities.
   Already, some short-selling hedge funds appeared to be changing their approach. Short seller Andrew Left, whose company Citron Research was one of the hedge funds to spark this week’s battle with small-time traders over GameStop Corp, said in a YouTube video on Friday that his company would no longer publish short selling research.
   Others said the ramped-up activity of retail investors - who last year helped drive rallies in shares of Tesla Inc  and other names - could in itself be the latest sign of market frothiness.
   “When you think about market bubbles, the last players that jump on board are retail, and that is generally what is happening right now,” said Mike Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners.
   Analysts at LPL Financial doubt the recent ructions in GameStop and other names indicate a broader market bubble, noting that market breadth - which measures how many stocks are participating in a rally - remains healthy and credit markets are functioning "just fine."
   "Maybe it is simply time for a break" in the S&P 500's rally, the firm said in a report Friday.
   Others, though, pointed to potential market turbulence ahead.
   Stephen Suttmeier, technical research strategist at BofA Global Research, earlier this week urged clients to "take some profits" ahead of February, a comparatively weak month for stocks.
   Other worrisome signs are the explosion of special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, and the surge in shares of electric vehicle companies on the heels of Tesla's gains, said Scott Schermerhorn, chief investment officer at Granite Investment Advisors.
   Still, he believes the frenzy over GameStop and other stocks is more of a "sideshow."
   Even after their rallies, the market capitalization of GameStop and other companies that have recently seen their stocks soar are "like a rounding error" compared with the broader market, he said.

(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and
Jonathan Oatis)
((lewis.krauskopf@thomsonreuters.com; 646-223-6082; Reuters
Messaging: lewis.krauskopf.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net,
Twitter: @LKrauskopf))

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劉易斯·克勞斯科普夫(Lewis Krauskopf)路透紐約1月29日電-一些投資者越來越擔心,GameStop和其他由小規模交易員推動的股票的劇烈波動,可能是過度樂觀的新跡象,預示着更廣泛的股市將出現波動.GameStop的股價本週收盤上漲400%,此前這家視頻遊戲連鎖店的股票成為散户交易員和華爾街專業人士之間的戰場,這場爭鬥吸引了全球投資者的注意力。一些市場觀察人士認為,這些大幅上漲,以及美國航空公司和其他嚴重賣空的股票的走勢,只是美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)的支持、預期的冠狀病毒救援支出以及針對新冠肺炎的疫苗將幫助美國經濟在今年晚些時候反彈的預期支撐下的反彈。本週早些時候,美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)駁斥了有關美聯儲超低利率和大規模債券購買正在製造資產泡沫的説法。但這些言論未能平息一些投資者的擔憂,即美聯儲的貨幣政策鼓勵了更廣泛市場的過度冒險行為:標準普爾500指數自3月以來上漲了66%,股票估值接近20年來的最高水平。GameStop和其他股票的走勢“肯定讓我們有一些擔憂的理由,”D.A.Davidson財富管理研究主管James Ragan説,“至少,你必須考慮到市場回調的可能性.”這些舉措還讓人將其與20年前的互聯網股熱潮進行了一些比較。Ragan説:“事實上,你有一羣投資者在追逐不尋常的收益,這讓人想起互聯網泡沫。”一些普遍過度樂觀的晴雨表已經開始閃爍:花旗表示,其“恐慌/興奮”模式正處於“高度興奮的領域”。美國銀行全球研究公司(BofA Global Research)的最新基金經理調查指出,現金配置迅速下降,表明投資者正在將更多資金投入風險更高的資產。儘管蘋果(AAPL.O:行情)、微軟(MSFT.O:行情)和其他企業重量級公司公佈了季度業績,但瘋狂的交易主導了本週華爾街的新聞.標普500指數當週下跌3.3%,週三成交量飆升至240億股上方,遠高於過去20個交易日144億股的均值。CBOE波動率指數本週收在30點上方,為11月初以來首見。如果對衝基金被迫拋售頭寸,以回補失敗的賣空押注,可能會出現進一步波動的一個潛在催化劑,儘管目前尚不清楚此類拋售是否足以給股市帶來廣泛風險。一些做空對衝基金似乎已經在改變他們的做法。做空者安德魯·萊夫特(Andrew Left)上週五在YouTube的一段視頻中表示,他的公司將不再發表賣空研究。他的公司雪鐵龍研究(Citron Research)是引發本週與小交易員圍繞GameStop公司展開鬥爭的對衝基金之一。其他人表示,散户投資者活動的加劇-他們去年幫助推動特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)和其他公司股價上漲-本身可能是市場泡沫的最新跡象。波士頓合夥公司(Boston Partners)全球市場研究主管邁克·馬蘭尼(Mike Mullaney)表示:“當你想到市場泡沫時,最後跳上船的是零售業,這通常就是目前正在發生的情況。”LPL Financial的分析師懷疑,GameStop和其他公司最近的動盪表明,市場存在更廣泛的泡沫。他們指出,衡量有多少股票參與漲勢的市場廣度仍然健康,信貸市場運行“剛剛好”。該公司在週五的一份報告中表示,標準普爾500指數的反彈“可能只是到了休息的時候了”。不過,其他人指出,未來可能會出現市場動盪。美國銀行全球研究(BofA Global Research)技術研究策略師斯蒂芬·薩特邁爾(Stephen Suttmeier)本週早些時候敦促客户在2月份之前“獲利回吐”。2月份是股市相對疲軟的一個月。花崗巖投資顧問公司(Granite Investment Advisors)首席投資官斯科特·謝默霍恩(Scott Schermerhorn)表示,其他令人擔憂的跡象包括特殊目的收購公司(SPAC)的爆炸性增長,以及特斯拉股價上漲之後電動汽車公司股價飆升。不過,他認為,對GameStop和其他股票的狂熱更多的是一種“雜耍”。他説,即使在反彈之後,GameStop和其他近期股價飆升的公司的市值與大盤相比也“像是四捨五入的誤差”。(Lewis Krauskopf報道;Ira Iosebashvili和喬納森·奧蒂斯(Jonathan Oatis)(lewis.krauskopf@thomsonreurs.com;646-223-6082;路透社消息:lewis.krauskopf.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net,推特:@LKrauskopf))(華爾街前一週每週五舉行。瀏覽股市日報,請點選)

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


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