Peloton Stock Took a Hit on Tuesday. It's Coming Back Today. -- Barrons.com
Peloton Stock Took a Hit on Tuesday. It's Coming Back Today. -- Barrons.com
DJ Peloton Stock Took a Hit on Tuesday. It's Coming Back Today. -- Barrons.com
DJ peloton Stock週二遭受重創。今天就回來了。--Barrons.com
By Connor Smith
康納·史密斯(Connor Smith)著
Peloton Interactive stock, up by more than double in the past 6 months, has analysts scratching their heads. Most rate it at Buy, or the equivalent, but say they expect the stock to trade for less than the current price.
佩洛頓互動公司的股票在過去6個月裏上漲了一倍多，這讓分析師們摸不着頭腦。大多數人對該股的評級為買入或相當於買入，但他們表示，他們預計該股的交易價格將低於當前價格。
UBS analyst Eric Sheridan sent the shares lower on Tuesday, lowering his rating on the stock to Sell. He said he liked Peloton's long-term prospects, but felt the price already reflects high expectations for the exercise-bike company's results in coming quarters.
瑞銀(UBS)分析師埃裏克·謝裏登(Eric Sheridan)週二下調了對該股的評級，將其股票賣出。他説，他喜歡佩洛頓的長期前景，但他覺得這個價格已經反映出人們對這家健身自行車公司未來幾個季度業績的高度期望。
Wednesday, Oppenheimer analyst Jason Helfstein weighed in, sending the stock back up. He said in a research note that he still sees upside for the shares, maintaining an Outperform rating and lifting his target for the stock price to $185 from $140.
週三，奧本海默(Oppenheimer)分析師傑森·赫爾夫斯坦(Jason Helfstein)加入進來，推動該股回升。他在一份研究報告中表示，他仍然認為該股有上行空間，維持了強於大盤的評級，並將股價目標從140美元上調至185美元。
The stock was up 3.2% to $154.98 in early afternoon, while the S&P 500 index was up 1.5%.
午後早些時候，該股上漲3.2%，至154.98美元，標準普爾500指數(S&P500 index)上漲1.5%。
Helfstein said he expects the company to bring in more subscribers than Wall Street expects in the near term as fitness enthusiasts cancel their memberships to traditional gyms. Helfstein expects U.S. gym memberships to see a 9% churn rate -- the percentage of consumers cancelling subscriptions -- which could be an opportunity for Peloton to add members.
赫爾夫斯坦説，隨着健身愛好者取消傳統健身房的會員資格，他預計該公司在短期內帶來的訂户將超過華爾街的預期。赫爾夫斯坦預計，美國健身房會員的流失率將達到9%，即消費者取消訂閲的比例，這可能是佩洛頓增加會員的機會。
He also likes the company's December deal to buy equipment maker Precor. The agreement, he says, should help the company deal with shortages that has resulted from the surge in demand sparked by last spring's shutdown, not to mention continued closures of gyms.
他還喜歡該公司去年12月收購設備製造商普雷科(Precor)的交易。他説，這項協議應該有助於該公司解決因去年春季關閉引發的需求激增而導致的短缺問題，更不用説健身房的持續關閉了。
Beyond that, he said, the deal can create up-selling possibilities by making use of Precor's existing ties to commercial consumers. Precor provides equipment for gyms, hotels, universities, and multifamily residences.
除此之外，他説，這筆交易可以利用Precor與商業消費者的現有關係，創造追加銷售的可能性。Precor為健身房、酒店、大學和多户住宅提供設備。
Helfstein forecasts the company ended the fiscal second quarter, which ended in December, with 1.68 million connected fitness subscribers. Such subscribers pay $39 a month to access classes that integrate with Peloton's equipment. His estimate is a bit higher than Wall Street's consensus, which call for 1.65 million such subscribers, according to FactSet.
赫爾夫斯坦預測，截至去年12月的第二財季，該公司將擁有168萬名聯網健身訂户。這類訂户每月支付39美元才能進入與佩洛頓設備集成的課程。他的估計略高於華爾街的共識，根據FactSet的數據，華爾街的共識是165萬這樣的訂户。
"We believe Peloton is redefining fitness, based on its convenience and relative value vs. other premium offerings," Helfstein wrote. "As the company continues to quickly grow its subscriber base, we forecast subscription contribution margin will exceed 70%, with churn remaining minimal."
赫爾夫斯坦寫道：“我們相信佩洛頓正在重新定義健身，這是基於它的便利性和相對於其他優質產品的相對價值。”“隨着公司訂户數量的持續快速增長，我們預計訂閲貢獻利潤率將超過70%，客户流失將保持在最低水平。”
Though 24 of the 28 analysts recently listed on FactSet have Buy or equivalent ratings, the mean price target is $153.62. That is below recent levels, meaning analysts may soon decide to raise their targets or lower their Buy ratings to Neutral.
儘管最近在FactSet上上市的28位分析師中有24位給予了買入或同等評級，但平均目標價為153.62美元。這低於最近的水平，這意味着分析師可能很快就會決定上調目標或將買入評級下調至中性。
Peloton's next earnings report is expected in February. Investors will be watching closely -- especially for the company's outlook, given that performance figures for coming quarters will begin to be compared with those from when the pandemic had already lifted demand.
佩洛頓的下一份收益報告預計將在2月份發佈。投資者將密切關注，尤其是該公司的前景，因為未來幾個季度的業績數據將開始與疫情已經提振需求時的業績數據進行比較。
Write to Connor Smith at connor.smith@barrons.com
寫信給Connor Smith，電子郵件：connor.smith@Barrons.com
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January 20, 2021 15:38 ET (20:38 GMT)
2021年1月20日15：38美國東部時間(格林尼治標準時間20：38)
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