share_log

RPT-ANALYSIS-Ultra long bonds are back in force as rock-bottom rates create sweet spot

RPT-ANALYSIS-Ultra long bonds are back in force as rock-bottom rates create sweet spot

RPT-分析-超長債券重新生效,因為最低利率創造了甜蜜點
路透社 ·  2021/01/19 15:00

(Repeats Monday story without changes)
   * France set to issue to new 50-year bond in coming days
   * Belgium, Spain, other possible candidates for 50-year issuance
   * EMs skewed long-bond issuance towards ultra-longs in 2020
   * Don't rule out 100-year Italy bond - analyst 
   By Dhara Ranasinghe
   LONDON, Jan 18 (Reuters) - More governments are selling bonds that mature in 30, 50 and even 100 years' time, capitalising on rock-bottom borrowing costs and a willingness among investors to look past risks for the sake of slightly higher yields.
   After Germany's state of North Rhine Westphalia (NRW) raised 2 billion euros on Jan. 5 via a 100-year issue, France said on Monday it would soon sell a 50-year bond, its first new debt at that maturity since 2016.
   A brisk start that has also seen Mexico and Indonesia sell 50-year bonds could mean issuance volumes approach levels seen in 2016, when euro zone governments sold a record 19 billion euros of bonds with maturities of 30 years and over.
   "It feels more like 2016," said Lee Cumbes, head of public sector debt, EMEA at Barclays. "Considering firm demand from investors and the issuers' current perspective, it seems like things are lining up for a high volume market again this year."
   For borrowers, it's a no-brainer -- selling ultra-long debt allows them to lock in interest rates squashed to historically low levels by central bank stimulus.
   Governments might also seek to smooth out a jump in borrowing to cover the costs of coronavirus; euro area net issuance alone will reach 541 billion euros this year, Societe Generale estimates, versus 531 billion euros in 2020.
   That backdrop of low interest rates has already seen many euro zone governments extend the average maturity of their debt since the bloc's crisis of last decade, saving taxpayer money.
  
   Ultra-long debt nevertheless remains a fraction of the overall market, accounting last year for about 14.6 billion euros of an estimated 1.23 trillion of gross issuance by euro zone governments, Rabobank data shows.
   Long issues carry risks for investors, however -- above all of inflation rearing its head and hurting bond prices. And the longer the tenor, the greater such duration risk.
   But faced with some $17 trillion in negative-yielding debt worldwide, fund managers are clamouring for assets offering even a few extra basis points of yield.
   One solution is to move further out the curve. France's existing 50-year issue for instance yields 0.5% , versus -0.3% for its 10-year debt .
   "I can assure you investors don't want to buy NRW at 1% but are forced to buy duration and that means ultra-long bonds," said one banker who arranges European government bond sales.
   Barclays' Cumbes, who was involved in the NRW deal, noted the German state had sold such bonds for a third straight year now and each time "those order books have increased, along with larger deal size and earlier timing in the year".
   HITTING A CENTURY
   Even the 100-year tenor has already been tapped by companies such as Walt Disney and Coca-Cola and sovereigns such as Mexico, which sold its first century bond in dollars in 2010, and Austria, which did so in 2017.
   Austria's 2020 century issue saw demand surpass the amount sold by nearly nine times.
   Peru and Israel also placed 100-year bonds last year, with investors apparently undeterred by Argentina's default on the century bond it sold in 2017.
   The share of long-dated debt in emerging markets has in fact increased in recent years to nearly one-third of overall supply, Morgan Stanley analysts note.
   And the skew is moving towards tenors of 35 years or over, they say, estimating emerging sovereigns sold $24 billion worth of such debt in 2020 -- eight times more than in 2019.
  
   Few analysts expect European issuers to go down the century route, sticking instead with the more familiar 50-year area. Spain, Italy and Belgium are seen as candidates for this maturity.
   But Saxo Bank strategist Althea Spinozzi says Italy could probably raise 100-year cash at around 2.5%.
   "The market is not talking about a 100-year bond from Italy but at this point in time why not?" she said. "There's low reinvestment risk and investors can take extremely long duration and basically ride the ECB" -- a reference to the suppression of borrowing costs by European Central Bank stimulus.
   The exception to the ultra-long trend may be the United States, the world's biggest single sovereign borrower.
   It sold 20-year bonds last year for the first time since 1986, a sign perhaps that it still sees room to target traditional points of the curve. 
  
/><^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Ultra-long bond issuance in the euro area
Austria's 100-year bond
Emerging markets: ultra-long bond issuance
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Additional reporting by Karin
Strohecker and Marc Jones; Editing by Sujata Rao and Catherine
Evans)
((Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreuters.com; +442075422684;)

(重複週一的故事,不變)*法國將在未來幾天發行新的50年期債券*比利時、西班牙和其他可能的50年期債券發行候選國*新興市場在2020年將長期債券發行向超長期傾斜*不排除100年期意大利債券--分析師達拉·拉納辛哈(Dhara Ranasinghe)著倫敦,1月18日(路透社)-越來越多的政府正在出售30年、50年甚至100年後到期的債券,利用極低的借貸成本和投資者為了略高的收益率而忽略風險的意願。在德國北萊茵-威斯特伐利亞州(NRW)1月5日通過發行100年期債券籌集20億歐元后,法國週一表示,將很快發售50年期債券,這是自2016年以來首個該期限的新債。墨西哥和印度尼西亞也發售了50年期債券,這一開門紅可能意味着發行量接近2016年的水平,當時歐元區各國政府發售了創紀錄的190億歐元30年及以上期限的債券。巴克萊(Barclays)歐洲、中東和非洲地區公共部門債務主管Lee Cumbes表示:“感覺更像是2016年。”“考慮到投資者的強勁需求和發行人目前的觀點,今年似乎又要迎來一個高成交量的市場了。”對於借款人來説,這是不需要動腦筋的--出售超長期債券可以讓他們鎖定被央行刺激措施壓低到歷史低位的利率。各國政府還可能尋求消除借款激增的問題,以支付冠狀病毒的成本;法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)估計,僅歐元區今年的淨發行量就將達到5410億歐元,而2020年為5310億歐元。在低利率的背景下,自歐元區過去十年的危機以來,許多歐元區政府已經延長了債務的平均期限,從而節省了納税人的錢。不過,荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)的數據顯示,超長期債券仍只佔整個市場的一小部分,去年在歐元區各國政府估計1.23萬億歐元的總發行量中約佔146億歐元。然而,長期債券發行給投資者帶來了風險--最重要的是通脹抬頭並損害債券價格。而且,期限越長,這種持續時間風險就越大。但面對全球約17萬億美元的負收益率債務,基金經理們爭先恐後地要求提供哪怕是幾個基點額外收益率的資產。一種解決方案是進一步走出曲線。例如,法國現有的50年期債券收益率為0.5%,而其10年期債券收益率為-0.3%。“我可以向你保證,投資者不想以1%的價格買入NRW,而是被迫買入存續期,這意味着超長期債券,”一位安排歐洲公債發售的銀行家表示.參與NRW交易的巴克萊(Barclays)Cumbes指出,德國政府目前已連續第三年發售此類債券,而且每次“隨着交易規模的擴大和今年時間的提前,這些債券的訂單都有所增加”。衝擊一個世紀甚至連百年男高音也已經被華特迪士尼(Walt Disney)和可口可樂(Coca-Cola)等公司以及墨西哥和奧地利等主權國家利用。墨西哥在2010年發行了第一隻美元世紀債券,奧地利在2017年發行了這一債券。奧地利2020年發行的世紀債券的需求量超過了銷售量近9倍。祕魯和以色列去年也發行了100年期債券,投資者顯然沒有被阿根廷在2017年出售的世紀債券違約嚇倒。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師指出,近年來,新興市場長期債務佔總供應量的比例實際上已上升至近三分之一。他們説,這種偏差正在向35年或35年以上的期限發展,估計新興主權國家在2020年出售了價值240億美元的此類債券,是2019年的八倍。幾乎沒有分析師預計歐洲發行人會走上世紀之路,而是堅持更熟悉的50年期債券。西班牙、意大利和比利時被視為這一期限的候選國。但盛寶銀行策略師Althea Spinozzi説,意大利可能會以2.5%左右的利率籌集100年期現金。“市場不是在談論意大利的100年期債券,但在這個時間點上,為什麼不呢?”她説。“再投資風險很低,投資者可以承受極長的期限,基本上可以搭乘歐洲央行的順風車”--指的是歐洲央行(ECB)刺激措施壓低借貸成本。超長期趨勢的例外可能是美國,它是世界上最大的單一主權借款國。該公司去年發售了20年期債券,這是自1986年以來的首次,這一跡象或許表明,它仍看到了瞄準曲線傳統點的空間。/>歐元區的超長期債券發行奧地利的100年期債券新興市場:超長債券發行 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>(Dhara Ranasinghe報道;Karin補充報道Stroherker和Marc Jones;Sujata Rao和Catherine編輯埃文斯)(Dhara.Ranasinghe@thomsonreurs.com;+442075422684;)

譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。


以上內容僅用作資訊或教育之目的,不構成與富途相關的任何投資建議。富途竭力但無法保證上述全部內容的真實性、準確性和原創性。
    搶先評論