Nationwide power sector investment in 1-11M2020 reached RMB809.9 bn, up YoY by 23,0%, Of which, power engineering investment went up YoY by 68,2% to RMB415.7 bn while power grid investment was down YoY by 4.2% to RMB394.2 bn. During the period, thermal power investment was down 15.3% YoYr while investment in hydro, nuclear and wind power surged YoY by 33.0%, 7.5% and 141,1%, respectively. Investment in wind power in China in the first 11 months broke the previous historical record by hitting RMB215.1 bn, which nearly doubled from the RMB 120 bn milestone recorded back in 2015 (full year)。 We expect that the majority of power engineering investment in China in next decade will focus on renewables.
Net earnings in the first 3 quarters of 2020 surged 29.6% YoY to RWIB1.342 mn, in line with our expectation. The Company's net profit during 1-3Q2020 met our expectation and was approximately 74.1% of our current full-year earnings forecast for 2020. Quarterly earnings in 3Q202C went up YoY by 26.9% to RMB388 mn. The Company produced 17.94 GW of power equipment in 1-3Q2020r up YoY by 19.4%. New orders in 1-3Q2020 surged YoY by 49.9% to RMB39.16 bn.
We reiterate the "Buy" investment rating and further raise our TP to HK$8.50. We remain positive on the outlook of Dongfang Electric. Our EPS estimates from 2020 to 2022 are RMB0.581, RMB0.757 and RMB0.923, respectively. The new TP corresponds to 12.4x/ 9.5x/ 7,8x 2020-2022 PER or 0,7x/ 0.7x/ 0.7x 2020-2022 PBR, respectively
2020年1-11月全國電力投資8099億元，同比增長23.0%，其中電力工程投資同比增長68.2%，至4157億元，電網投資同比下降4.2%，至3942億元。在此期間，火電投資同比下降15.3%，而水電、核能和風電投資分別同比增長33.0%、7.5%和141.1%。今年前11個月，中國風電投資達到2151億元人民幣，打破了之前的歷史紀錄，比2015年(全年)1200億元人民幣的里程碑幾乎翻了一番。我們預計，未來十年中國電力工程投資的大部分將集中在可再生能源領域。
2020年前三個季度的淨收益同比增長29.6%，達到134.2萬元人民幣，符合我們的預期。公司在2020年第一季度至第三季度的淨利潤符合我們的預期，約佔我們目前對2020年全年收益預測的74.1%。202C第三季度收益同比增長26.9%，達到3.88億元人民幣。公司2020年第一季度發電設備產量17.94千兆瓦，同比增長19.4%。2020年第一季度新訂單同比增長49.9%，達到391.6億元人民幣。
我們重申“買入”投資評級，並進一步上調TP至8.5港元。我們仍然看好東方電氣的前景。我們對2020-2022年的EPS預估分別為0.581元、0.757元和0.923元。新的TP分別對應於2020-2022年的12.4x/9.5x/7.8x或2020-2022年的0.7x/0.7x/0.7x
