Interpretation of the gold midday market
November 30, news: Last week, spot gold broke down and fell below the important mark support of 1,800 US dollars, setting a new low of 1,774 US dollars since July 7, closing 4.45% lower at 1787.50 US dollars/ounce, and also the biggest weekly negative line since September 25. The scarcity of liquidity caused by the Thanksgiving holiday has amplified the room for market volatility. The market is increasingly optimistic about the smooth transition of the White House. Overall, vaccine development has maintained positive prospects, driving the Dow Jones Index to a historic high of 30,000 points, and the NASDAQ index also set a new record high, putting further pressure on the price of gold. However, the effectiveness of the AstraZeneca vaccine has been questioned. The Federal Reserve suggests strengthening QE, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US continues to rise, weakening the dollar and limiting the strength of precious metals bears. Analysts said, “Due to optimism about vaccine development, we are seeing an improvement in the willingness to take risks. This is a resistance for gold, but as the dollar continues to weaken, the price of gold will still have some support.”
Technical side: Gold's one-hour K-line directly breaks the 1,800 support level. There is no doubt about the trend bears. The Bollinger band trajectory is clearly sloping downward, and the K-line directly falls directly vertically downward. Currently, the lower support side focuses on the lower 1-hour Bollinger band around $1,772, focusing on the lower 1-hour Bollinger band position, which will open up downside space; in terms of upward resistance, the 1-hour Bollinger band is around $1,798. Currently, international gold is operating around the 1-hour Bollinger band decline. Taken together, today's short-term operating idea is mainly a rebound and shorting, complemented by a lower pullback. The upper short-term focus is on 1795-1800 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on 1765-1770 first-line support.
Interpretation of the crude oil midday market
News side: International oil prices surged about 7% this week, hitting a new high since the beginning of March. The overall outlook for the vaccine is improving, inspiring hope for a rapid recovery in oil demand. US crude oil inventories unexpectedly declined, the US government began orderly handover, and OPEC+ is expected to discuss and postpone plans to increase production, strengthening this expectation. Sources said that despite rising oil prices, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, including Russia, still tend to postpone plans to increase oil production next year to support the market during the second wave of COVID-19 and rising production in Libya. Libya is not bound by production reduction plans, and production has increased by more than 1.1 million b/d since the beginning of September. Barclays continues to maintain its 2021 oil price forecast, which is “higher than generally estimated,” and predicts that the average price of ICE Brent crude oil will be 53 US dollars per barrel, based on production cuts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, and the availability of a COVID-19 vaccine that may increase oil demand in the second half of next year.
Technical side: Judging from the daily structure, the main trend is mostly unchanged, and the acceleration phase after breaking the position. However, after continuous measurement on the 1-hour chart, a partial wave-shaped triple height began to appear. If you think of this wave of rise as a wave rise, it is currently at the end of this wave rise. Usually, after a triple rise, the small cycle shows that the volume of bulls can slow down slightly, and then gain momentum again with a certain backlash correction. Currently, it is slowly rising and falling short. Every time it breaks out of a new high, it is accompanied by a long period of consolidation and correction. Crude oil continued to rise high yesterday, slowly rising and shorting out at the opening of the market. The consolidation momentum was exchanged for time and space. During the US trading session, the volume continued after Lianyang broke through the previous high of 43.73. Taken together, today's short-term operating idea is mainly a low pullback, complemented by a rebound and shorting. The upper short-term focus is on 46.5-47 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on 43.5-44 first-line support.