Most investors tend to think that hedge funds and other asset managers are worthless, as they cannot beat even simple index fund portfolios. In fact, most people expect hedge funds to compete with and outperform the bull market that we have witnessed in recent years. However, hedge funds are generally partially hedged and aim at delivering attractive risk-adjusted returns rather than following the ups and downs of equity markets hoping that they will outperform the broader market. Our research shows that certain hedge funds do have great stock picking skills (and we can identify these hedge funds in advance pretty accurately), so let’s take a glance at the smart money sentiment towards Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE).
IsCelanese Corporation (NYSE:CE)an exceptional investment now? Prominent investors were buying. The number of long hedge fund positions rose by 4 in recent months. Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) was in 33 hedge funds' portfolios at the end of June. The all time high for this statistics is 33. This means the bullish number of hedge fund positions in this stock currently sits at its all time high. Our calculations also showed that CE isn't among the 30 most popular stocks among hedge funds (click for Q2 rankings and see the video for a quick look at the top 5 stocks). There were 29 hedge funds in our database with CE positions at the end of the first quarter.Video: Watch our video about the top 5 most popular hedge fund stocks.
In the financial world there are a large number of tools investors have at their disposal to grade stocks. A pair of the most under-the-radar tools are hedge fund and insider trading indicators. We have shown that, historically, those who follow the top picks of the best fund managers can outperform the broader indices by a solid amount. Insider Monkey's monthly stock picks returned 101% since March 2017 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETFs by more than 56 percentage points. Our short strategy outperformed the S&P 500 short ETFs by 20 percentage points annually (see the details here). That's why we believe hedge fund sentiment is a useful indicator that investors should pay attention to.


Dmitry Balyasny of Balyasny Asset Management
At Insider Monkey we scour multiple sources to uncover the next great investment idea. Last week, most investors overlooked a major development because of the presidential elections: Oregon became the first state to legalize psychedelic mushrooms which are shown to have promising results in treating depression, addiction, and PTSD in early stage academic studies. So, we are checking out thispsychedelic drug stock idearight now. We go through lists like the 10most profitable companiesin the world to pick the best large-cap stocks to buy. Even though we recommend positions in only a tiny fraction of the companies we analyze, we check out as many stocks as we can. We read hedge fund investor letters and listen to stock pitches at hedge fund conferences. You can subscribe to our free daily newsletter on our website to get excerpts of these letters in your inbox. With all of this in mind we're going to take a peek at the recent hedge fund action surrounding Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE).What have hedge funds been doing with Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE)?
At the end of the second quarter, a total of 33 of the hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey held long positions in this stock, a change of 14% from the first quarter of 2020. By comparison, 20 hedge funds held shares or bullish call options in CE a year ago. With the smart money's capital changing hands, there exists an "upper tier" of noteworthy hedge fund managers who were adding to their stakes considerably (or already accumulated large positions).

More specifically, Lyrical Asset Management was the largest shareholder of Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE), with a stake worth $237.1 million reported as of the end of June. Trailing Lyrical Asset Management was GMT Capital, which amassed a stake valued at $197.6 million. Holocene Advisors, Millennium Management, and Citadel Investment Group were also very fond of the stock, becoming one of the largest hedge fund holders of the company. In terms of the portfolio weights assigned to each position GMT Capital allocated the biggest weight to Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE), around 11.12% of its 13F portfolio. Lyrical Asset Management is also relatively very bullish on the stock, designating 4.67 percent of its 13F equity portfolio to CE.
As aggregate interest increased, specific money managers have been driving this bullishness. Holocene Advisors, managed by Brandon Haley, created the most valuable position in Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE). Holocene Advisors had $80.5 million invested in the company at the end of the quarter. Michael Cowley's Sandbar Asset Management also made a $5.2 million investment in the stock during the quarter. The other funds with brand new CE positions are Ryan Tolkin (CIO)'s Schonfeld Strategic Advisors, Michael Gelband's ExodusPoint Capital, and Greg Poole's Echo Street Capital Management.
Let's now review hedge fund activity in other stocks - not necessarily in the same industry as Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) but similarly valued. We will take a look at Discovery Inc. (NASDAQ:DISCA), Concho Resources Inc. (NYSE:CXO), Lyft, Inc. (NASDAQ:LYFT), Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN), Bio-Techne Corporation (NASDAQ:TECH), United Airlines Holdings Inc (NYSE:UAL), and Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ:ERIE). All of these stocks' market caps are closest to CE's market cap.
[table] Ticker, No of HFs with positions, Total Value of HF Positions (x1000), Change in HF Position DISCA,29,276418,-3 CXO,44,963633,13 LYFT,30,324369,-1 ZEN,63,1579039,8 TECH,27,278924,1 UAL,38,917094,-3 ERIE,14,42805,-3 Average,35,626040,1.7 [/table]
View table here if you experience formatting issues.
As you can see these stocks had an average of 35 hedge funds with bullish positions and the average amount invested in these stocks was $626 million. That figure was $695 million in CE's case. Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) is the most popular stock in this table. On the other hand Erie Indemnity Company (NASDAQ:ERIE) is the least popular one with only 14 bullish hedge fund positions. Celanese Corporation (NYSE:CE) is not the least popular stock in this group but hedge fund interest is still below average. Our overall hedge fund sentiment score for CE is 58.4. Stocks with higher number of hedge fund positions relative to other stocks as well as relative to their historical range receive a higher sentiment score. Our calculations showed that top 10 most popular stocks among hedge funds returned 41.4% in 2019 and outperformed the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) by 10.1 percentage points. These stocks gained 23% in 2020 through October 30th and still beat the market by 20.1 percentage points. A small number of hedge funds were also right about betting on CE as the stock returned 33% since the end of the second quarter (through 10/30) and outperformed the market by an even larger margin.
Get real-time email alerts: Follow Celanese Corp (NYSE:CE)
Disclosure: None. This article was originally published at Insider Monkey.
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大多數投資者傾向於認為對衝基金和其他資產管理公司一文不值,因為它們連簡單的指數基金投資組合都打不過。事實上,大多數人預計對衝基金將與我們近年來目睹的牛市競爭,並超越牛市。然而,對衝基金通常是部分對衝的,它們的目標是提供誘人的風險調整後回報,而不是跟隨股市的起伏,希望它們的表現會好於大盤。我們的研究表明,某些對衝基金確實有很好的選股技巧(我們可以相當準確地提前識別這些對衝基金),所以讓我們來看看歐元™‘s對塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)的聰明資金情緒。
塞拉尼斯公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CE)現在是一項特殊的投資嗎?知名投資者紛紛買入。近幾個月對衝基金多頭倉位增加4口。截至6月底,塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)在33家對衝基金的投資組合中。這一統計數據的歷史最高值是33。這意味着這隻股票的看漲對衝基金頭寸數量目前處於歷史最高水平。我們的計算還顯示,CE不在對衝基金最受歡迎的30只股票之列(點擊查看第二季度排名,快速瀏覽前5只股票的視頻)。在我們的數據庫中,截至第一季度末,擁有CE頭寸的對衝基金有29只。視頻:觀看我們關於最受歡迎的5只對衝基金股票的視頻。
在金融界,投資者有大量工具可以用來給股票評級。對衝基金和內幕交易指標是最不為人所知的兩種工具。我們已經證明,從歷史上看,那些追隨最優秀基金經理的人的表現可以比更廣泛的指數高出很多。自2017年3月以來,Insider Monkey的月度選股回報率為101%,表現比標準普爾500指數ETF高出逾56個百分點。我們的做空策略每年的表現比標準普爾500指數做空ETF高出20個百分點(詳情請看這裏)。這就是為什麼我們認為對衝基金情緒是投資者應該關注的有用指標。


Balyasny資產管理公司的Dmitry Balyasny
在Insider Monkey,我們搜索多個來源,以發現下一個偉大的投資想法。上週,由於總統選舉,大多數投資者忽視了一個重大進展:俄勒岡州成為第一個將迷幻蘑菇合法化的州。在早期的學術研究中,迷幻蘑菇在治療抑鬱症、成癮和創傷後應激障礙方面有很好的效果。所以,我們現在正在檢查這種迷幻藥物庫存。我們會仔細查看世界上最賺錢的10家公司的名單,挑選最適合購買的大盤股。儘管我們只推薦了我們分析的公司中很小一部分的頭寸,但我們會儘可能多地查看股票。我們讀對衝基金投資者的信件,聽對衝基金會議上的股票推介。您可以在我們的網站上訂閲我們的免費每日時事通訊,在您的收件箱中獲取這些信件的節選。考慮到這一切,我們來看看最近圍繞塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)的對衝基金行動。對衝基金對塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)做了什麼?
截至第二季度末,Insider Monkey追蹤的對衝基金中共有33家持有這隻股票的多頭頭寸,較2020年第一季度增加了14%。相比之下,一年前有20家對衝基金持有CE的股票或看漲期權。隨着聰明人的資本易手,出現了一批值得注意的對衝基金經理,他們正在大幅增持股份(或者已經積累了大量頭寸)。

更具體地説,抒情資產管理公司是塞拉尼斯公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CE)的最大股東,截至6月底,該公司持有價值2.371億美元的股份。緊隨其後的是抒情資產管理公司(GMT Capital),該公司積累了價值1.976億美元的股份。全新世顧問公司(Holocene Advisors)、千禧管理公司(Millennium Management)和城堡投資集團(Citadel Investment Group)也非常喜歡這隻股票,成為該公司最大的對衝基金持有者之一。就分配給每個頭寸的投資組合權重而言,GMT Capital分配給塞拉尼斯公司(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:CE)的權重最大,約佔其13F投資組合的11.12%。抒情資產管理公司(Lyrical Asset Management)也相對非常看好該股,將其13F股票投資組合中的4.67%指定給CE。
隨着總興趣的增加,特定的基金經理一直在推動這種看漲。由布蘭登·黑利(Brandon Haley)管理的全新世顧問公司(Holocene Advisors)在塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)創造了最有價值的職位。截至季度末,全新世顧問公司在該公司的投資為8050萬美元。邁克爾·考利(Michael Cowley)的沙壩資產管理公司(Sandbar Asset Management)在本季度也對該股進行了520萬美元的投資。其他擁有全新首席執行官職位的基金包括首席信息官瑞安·托爾金(Ryan Tolkin)的Schonfeld Strategic Advisors、邁克爾·蓋爾班德(Michael Gelband)的ExodusPoint Capital和格雷格·普爾(Greg Poole)的回聲街資本管理公司(Echo Street Capital Management)。
現在讓我們回顧一下對衝基金在其他股票中的活動--不一定與塞拉尼斯公司(NYSE:CE)在同一行業,但估值相似。我們將看看Discovery Inc.(納斯達克市場代碼:DISCA)、Concho Resources Inc.(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:CXO)、Lyft,Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:LYFT)、Zendesk Inc.(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:ZEN)、Bio-Techne Corporation(納斯達克股票代碼:TECH)、聯合航空控股公司(United Airlines Holdings Inc.)(紐約證券交易所市場代碼:UAL)和伊利賠償公司(NASDAQ:ERIE)。所有這些股票的市值都最接近行政長官的市值。
[表]股票代碼,帶位置的HFs數量,HF位置的總值(X1000),HF位置變化DISCA,29,276418,-3 CXO,44,963633,13 Lyft,30,324369,-1 Zen,63,1579039,8 tech,27,278924,1 UAL,38,917094,-3 Erie,14,42805,平均值,35,6240,1.7[/TABLE]
如果您遇到格式問題,請在此處查看錶格。
正如你所看到的,這些股票平均有35只持有看漲頭寸的對衝基金,平均投資於這些股票的金額為6.26億美元。就行政長官而言,這個數字是6.95億元。Zendesk Inc.(紐約證券交易所股票代碼:ZEN)是這份表格中最受歡迎的股票。另一方面,伊利賠償公司(NASDAQ:ERIE)是最不受歡迎的公司,只有14個看漲對衝基金頭寸。塞拉尼斯公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CE)不是這類股票中最不受歡迎的股票,但對衝基金的興趣仍然低於平均水平。我們對CE的整體對衝基金情緒得分為58.4。與其他股票相比,對衝基金持倉數量更多的股票,以及相對於其歷史區間的股票,其情緒得分更高。我們的計算顯示,2019年對衝基金中最受歡迎的10只股票的回報率為41.4%,表現比標準普爾500指數交易所交易基金(SPY)高出10.1個百分點。截至10月30日,這些股票在2020年上漲了23%,但仍比大盤高出20.1個百分點。少數對衝基金對CE的押注也是正確的,自第二季度末(截至10月30日)以來,該股回報率為33%,表現優於大盤,幅度更大。
獲取實時電子郵件提醒:關注塞拉尼斯公司(紐約證券交易所代碼:CE)
披露:沒有。本文最初發表在《內幕猴子》(Insider Monkey)雜誌上。
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