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「王一博投资组合」,今年以来收益率32.58%

“Wang Yibo Investment Portfolio”, yield 32.58% since this year

巴伦周刊 ·  Nov 1, 2020 16:14

PS: this article is for discussion only, not as an investment suggestion.

Wang Yibo represented the Monster Energy Yamaha China team in the Zhuhai ZIC motorcycle race this year. This is the first time that sports drink Monster Energy has sponsored the event, and in April, it announced Wang Yibo as the brand spokesman.

On the race day, Wang Yibo fell off the track. On the last lap, Wang Yibo was brought down by an opponent who made a mistake while overtaking, and the motorcycle could not start after the fall and was forced to withdraw from the race.

This fall, so that fans and many passers-by outraged, quickly boarded the hot search, so that the event out of the circle, so that the exposure of sponsors N times than expected. It was October 7, 2020, and shares of monster beverage (MNST.O), a listed company owned by the magic claw brand, closed at $78.76, up more than 20 per cent from April.

Nine days later, retailer MINISO Group listed on Nasdaq at $20 a share and successfully raised $608 million. Wang Yibo is its global brand spokesman. When discussing the investment value of MINISO Group's company, one of my colleagues exposed her identity as a fan of Wang Yibo.

She is particularly worried that if the company resurfaces controversial product quality and safety issues, the share price issue will come second and her idol image will be tarnished.

By the way, she gave us Amway's other business achievements, including Nike Inc's official partner, Hongmi mobile phone endorsement, KFC brand endorsement. Oh, wait, wait.

So someone who is good-- that is, I-- intuitively became interested in the stock price performance of these brands and decided to inquire about it in detail. This kind of association obviously lacks the sufficient rational basis, but it is almost inevitable.

The greater curiosity is whether there is an indirect or potential relationship between the investment value of listed companies and their brand spokesmen.

As one of the most outstanding performers in performing arts and business in 2020, Wang Yibo is only 23 years old. according to incomplete statistics, he has 31 brands endorsing or working together as of the end of October. In the star power list of Sina Weibo Corp, Wang Yibo has long been on the mainland list of weekly and monthly Top 5, and the only ones who can compete with it are Yi Qianxi, Cai Xukun and Xiao Zhan.

Wang Yibo ranked sixth in the "CSI China Star Business value list" released by global measurement agency second hand system (Miaozhen Systems) and Entertainment Capital in the first half of 2020.

The CSI (Celebrity Selection Index) system comprehensively examines stars' eye attraction index (screen activity and search popularity), social influence (circle power, online word-of-mouth, social popularity), and brand power (brand equity enhancement, carrying ability). At present, the top 5 are Dili Reba, Yi Yi Qianxi, Cai Xukun, Hua Chenyu and Zhang Yixing.

However, in terms of commercial endorsements, Wang Yibo ranks first in terms of performance, with 23 new endorsements so far this year, most of which come from listed companies. In the list of commercial values of artists released by Aman data, Wang Yibo also won the championship in the second and third quarters of 2020.

9 "Wang Yibo concept stocks"

In terms of categories, Wang Yibo's endorsement territory covers: beverages, food and household goods in daily consumer goods, clothing in optional consumption, restaurants, retail, as well as Internet and communications equipment.

Excluding unlisted companies and brands that have been endorsing for less than three months, Wang Yibo's brands involve a series of listed companies, including two A-shares, one Hong Kong stock, six US stocks and one BABA, who is listed on both US and Hong Kong stocks.

You could say that.If anyone accepts all of these "Wang Yibo concept stocks", it is basically tantamount to building a global consumer theme fund.The fund's heavy holdings will include this year's consumer stock star, Nike Inc. Wang Yibo's partnership with Nike Inc began on March 26, when Nike Inc's share price was at a trough; Nike Inc's share price has risen more than 100 per cent since its low of $59.51 on March 18.

Wall Street analysts call it the "strongest brand in retail" this year, driven by a "direct consumer strategy" centered on the transformation of digital platforms, as well as strong double-digit growth in the Chinese market.

It was analyzed in detail in the Chinese edition of Barron Weekly on October 16. Monster drink is a global giant in the field of energy drinks in recent years. COVID-19 epidemic also put great pressure on its sales, but did not affect the overall situation.

The company reported net profit of $279 million in the first quarter of 2020, up 6.6 per cent from a year earlier, and diluted earnings per share of $0.52, up 8.2 per cent from a year earlier.

Thanks to the first recovery in the Chinese market, Monster's revenue in China has increased by 70% since the end of April, Barron Weekly reported in late August.

It may be a coincidence that the choice of brand spokesperson for Nike Inc and monster beverage is positively related to the company's performance. Or, it is because the stock selection of the spokesperson is in reverse. But at least it can be said that Wang Yibo is some kind of consensus between the two global companies on their marketing strategies for China.

The following is the performance of Wang Yibo's portfolio so far this year:


The average return on the portfolio so far this year is more than 32%. To be fair, the share price on the start date of endorsement cooperation is not taken as the starting point for calculation; if so, the level of earnings may be even higher.

Among them, the strongest performer is XIAOMI Group (1810.HK). According to the statistics of mobile phone users in Lu Masters data Center, the market share of red rice (Redmi) endorsed by Wang Yibo rose sharply in the third quarter of 2020, surpassing Yijia mobile phones.

Earlier, the company announced that the Redmi Note8 series had sold more than 30 million units worldwide, making it the highest-selling domestic mobile phone.

Most of the other stocks in the portfolio performed well, up 20 per cent and 30 per cent. Among them, Procter & Gamble Co (PG.N), Colgate (CL.N) and other industry leading companies have always been famous for their generous dividend level. Procter & Gamble Co, for example, will pay its latest quarterly dividend of $0.7907 a share on Nov. 16.

Additional note, MINISO Group U. S. stocks after IPO is less than a month, so it has not been included in the portfolio. The stock is currently on a downward trend, and if it is included, the average return on the portfolio will fall to about 24%.

The following is a comparison of the performance of the portfolio with the major stock indexes over the same period:640?wx_fmt=png&tp=webp&wxfrom=5&wx_lazy=1&wx_co=1

To sum up, so far this year, "Wang Yibo investment portfolio" outperformed a number of major markets, lagging behind the A-share gem index and Kechuang 50 index.I have shown the above "research results" to several Wang Yibo fans, and pointed out that their love for idols still has room for growth.

Celebrity effect and Investment in Consumer stocksTo tell you the truth, is celebrity effect a feasible reference index for stock investment? In consumer stocks, the answer may be yes. Barron Weekly has reported some typical cases.

PZZA.O was caught up in racial discrimination in the summer of 2018, when controversial comments by company executives about NFL players directly triggered the crisis.

Great John's share price plummeted from a high of about $90 to less than $40. In March 2019, Great John finally found the exit of the crisis, and the company announced that former NBA star O'Neill had joined the board and served as brand image ambassador. In the six months after the appointment of O'Neill, Great John's share price rose more than 20% to more than 60 yuan.

Wall Street analysts generally agree that having a "good-looking" face in boards or commercials for brands and companies that face consumers directly helps boost sales growth and stem the tide of negative public opinion. However, the celebrity effect can not solve the deep-seated fundamental problems, and there is also a situation of diminishing utility.

One example is the combination of talk show queen Oprah Winfrey and healthy lightweight Internet company WWI (WW.O). Oprah has been buying shares in WWI since 2015 and has gradually become a major shareholder.

Oprah stopped the decline in sales after Oprah joined the board, and its share price reached an all-time high of $105 in June 2018. However, due to the high asset-liability ratio, the company's share price has been volatile for nearly two years. It has fallen to $21.16 so far.

Investors cannot put the cart before the horse. The celebrity effect only works for companies with healthy business, and LUCKN COFFEE DRC is an obvious counterexample. For consumer stock companies with good fundamentals, star endorsements can be seen as an explicit indicator of business improvement for performance improvement.

In 2020, before the overall US stock market plunged in late October, McDonald's Corp's share price was up 90 per cent from the end of March and nearly 15 per cent since the beginning of the year, according to Barron Weekly.

That level is slightly higher than that of Yum China, a member of KFC that Wang Yibo endorses. McDonald's Corp's spokesman in the Chinese market is easy to close Qianxi.

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger (Dennis Geiger) told Barron Weekly that celebrity endorsements are the key to helping fast food giants succeed again.

The package, named after rapper Travis Scott, has brought continued sales to McDonald's Corp over the past year. Next, Latin musician J. Balvin will become the face of the new McDonald's Corp package in November. Balvin's $6 package will include one Big Mac, one medium French fries and one Macro.

Minority representatives are a common choice of American consumer brands in recent years.Dennis Geiger points out that star endorsements focus on a younger customer base, giving a significant boost to customer numbers and sales.

Celebrity endorsements combined with menu innovation, express food delivery, digital platform growth strategy and other positive factors can become a catalyst for the company's stock price.

In the field of consumer stocks, celebrity effect is directly related to sales. Using the CSI model of the above-mentioned second hand system, the endorsement stars selected by the brand are not enough to have fan loyalty, personal reputation and professional standards, but also need continuous and strong content activity and search enthusiasm.

Fan economic dividendYi Qianxi is now the global spokesman for Emporio Armani. Accordingly, a survey shows that the largest buyers of the same products of four-character brothers and TFboys come from people aged 50 years old; they are obviously the backbone of the "nurturance line" in the market; as early as June 2018, Yi Qianxi set a record of selling 5000 Adidas T-shirts per second.

Fan spending in China exceeded 40 billion yuan by the end of 2018, according to QuestMobile. According to research by iResearch Consulting, the market size of China's fan economy-related industries has exceeded 3.5 trillion yuan in 2019, an increase of 24.3% over the same period last year, and is expected to exceed 6 trillion yuan by 2023.

According to CBNData, the post-90s are most fond of buying the same products from celebrities, and female fans contribute 75% of the total consumption. According to a survey conducted by Zhibaichuan, the main fans of the "fresh meat" idol are female consumers who are 35 years old, of whom 48.1% are married.

In the statistics of AdMaster, 63% of the online accounts followed by the post-00 group are cultural and entertainment stars, while the brand category is only 8%. According to the "observation report on user behavior in the fan economy" released by 36Kr, 81% of consumers have bought celebrity endorsement products.

More than 76% of star-chasing users earn less than 10,000 yuan a month, but 85% of star-chasing users have a bachelor's degree. With the deepening of the fan economy era, the weight of celebrity effect in the influence composition of consumer goods brands is on the rise.

It sounds like the celebrity stock selection law is not "serious" after all. However, the marketing strategy, decision-making ability, budget level and other basic information of excellent enterprises have been included in their choice of spokesmen. In mature industries and markets, the combination of big companies and head stars has fully eliminated irrational factors.

The signing of new celebrity endorsements has always been one of the routine factors that Wall Street analysts take into account when studying the direction of a company's share price.Here are two other examples of star endorsement stock portfolios:

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It can be seen that despite being dragged down by the falling share prices of the two auto companies, the overall earnings performance of the above two combinations is still good. The overall and sound performance of Wang Yibo's investment portfolio is unreplicable in general, and to a certain extent, it is also related to consumer brands that are mostly included in the scope of this portfolio, while consumer stocks have risen significantly this year. If its new cooperative brand Audi (listed company is Volkswagen Group) in September is taken into account, the rate of return will fall to 27%.

In any case, celebrity endorsement as a stock selection index has a certain reference. If you are willing to listen to the gossip about the master of online stock reviews or Lao Wang and Lao Li next door, then Wang Yibo can also be used as a clue to independent thinking.

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This article is for readers' reference only and does not constitute or rely on as investment, accounting, legal or tax advice. )

Edit / charlie

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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