Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Electoral Implications For Leveraged Tech ETF
Plenty of sectors are in electoral crosshairs this year, technology chief among them. The S&P 500's largest sector weight is a leadership group again in 2020, but there are implications for it come Election Day.
今年有很多行業都處於選舉十字準線中，其中包括技術是首要的。標普 500 的最大行業權重在 2020 年再次成為領導小組，但是選舉日對此產生了影響。
What Happened
發生了什麼
Those implications make the Direxion Daily Technology Bull 3X Shares (NYSE:TECL) a credible post-election idea. TECL attempts to deliver triple the daily returns of the Technology Select Sector Index, a benchmark that's essentially an ode to Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) as that duo combine for more than 44% of the index's weight.
As has been widely documented, some titans of tech are drawing the ire of politicians on both sides of the aisle, but the conventional wisdom is that a victory by former Vice President Joe Biden would take some of the heat off the sector.
正如已被廣泛記錄的那樣，一些技術巨頭正在吸引過道兩側政治家的憤怒， 但傳統的智慧 是前副總統喬·拜登的勝利將使該行業的一些熱度降低。
Why It's Important
為什麼它很重要
That will probably prove to be true if Biden wins, but there are reasons to consider TECL, including intra-tech rotations.
如果拜登獲勝，這可能是正確的，但是有理由考慮 TECL，包括技術內部旋轉。
“If you are long-duration technology – SaaS, payment processors, FAANG – you do not believe rotation is sustainable. Evidence of that view is best represented in the 8% bounce in the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) since the week of September 25,” writes Rareview Macro founder Neil Azous. “The opposing view is that cyclical technology, value names, and GARP stocks should benefit from a more balanced portfolio into the Presidential Election, especially if Biden wins. He is more likely to break up the monopoly names.”
「如果您是長期技術（SaaS），支付處理商，FAANG-您不相信輪換是可持續的。自 9 月 25 日當週以來，NASDAQ-100 指數（NDX）的 8％ 反彈最好代表了這一觀點的證據，」 寫拉評宏創始人尼爾·阿佐斯。「相反的觀點是，週期性技術，價值名稱和 GARP 股票應該從總統選舉中更平衡的投資組合中受益，尤其是在拜登獲勝的情況下。他更有可能打破壟斷的名字。」
Assuming Biden pursues the breaking up monopolies angle, TECL's bearish counterpart, the Direxion Daily Technology Bear 3X Shares (NYSE:TECS), could come into focus. However, that thesis probably doesn't account for Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), a friend of Silicon Valley, being Biden's running mate.
假設拜登追求分手壟斷角度，TECL 的看跌對應， 直接每日科技承擔 3X 股票 (紐約證券交易所:TEC)，可以成為焦點。但是，該論文可能不會說明矽谷的朋友卡馬拉·哈里斯（D-CA）是拜登的跑步伴侶。
What's Next
下一步是什麼
Monopoly breaking is hard and even if President Trump scores the upset, there are no guarantees he'll have the political capital to wage anything more than verbal war against tech giants.
壟斷是艱難的打破，即使特朗普總統得分不高興，也無法保證他有政治資本，除了對科技巨頭的言語戰爭之外，還有任何東西。
That is to say even if he does pull victory from the jaws of defeat, TECL should still shape up nicely after Election Day. Plus, there are more technical reasons that could be the case.
也就是說，即使他確實從失敗的下巴中取得勝利，TECL 仍然應該在選舉日之後很好地塑造出來。另外，還有更多的技術原因可能是這種情況。
“Regarding the old generals – Oracle, Cisco, Intel, etc. – many of the charts are constructive,” said Azous.
「關於老將軍-甲骨文，思科，英特爾等-許多圖表都是建設性的，」Azous 說。
Those names and other mature tech fare reside in TECL's underlying index.
這些名稱和其他成熟的科技票價位於 TECL 的基礎指數中。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。