Main points of investment
What is the spatial geometry of the accompanying diagnosis industry? According to the estimation of the number of new tumor patients per year, the incremental market of concomitant diagnosis in China is about 25-3 billion yuan; if the stock of patients is taken into account, the concomitant diagnosis market in China can reach 74-9.2 billion yuan. With the continuous progress of the research and development of targeted drugs, the exploration of new targets and cross-cancer species will create new demand; as the concept of accurate treatment of tumors becomes more and more popular, multiple tests throughout the course of the disease will open up a new space. We expect that the size of China's accompanying diagnosis market will eventually exceed 10 billion.
How to develop inside and outside the hospital? The accompanying diagnosis industry in China is in a period of vigorous development. With the targeted drug reimbursement, strict management; some areas will be accompanied by diagnosis into the scope of medical insurance reimbursement; some enterprises with uncertain business models may face financing problems, in the short and medium term, with diagnostic terminal demand is expected to return to the hospital market. In the long run, high-quality out-of-hospital concomitant diagnostic enterprises are also expected to break through the tight encirclement and attract terminal demand outflow.
Can Eddard's leading position be maintained? The company relies on excellent innovative R & D capabilities, pre-emptive strike, layout channels, cultivate brands, and empower doctors, industry experts, scientific research institutes, pharmaceutical enterprises and other business partners with omni-directional platform advantages. and in the cooperation to constantly improve their own technology, improve product lines, consolidate channels, enhance industry influence, form a closed-loop ecological circle, help the company to firmly occupy the leading position in the industry, and achieve the strong and strong.
What is the long-term development direction of Eddard? Overseas concomitant diagnosis has a broad market space and great potential for development. With the company's years of industry accumulation and exclusive PCR joint inspection technology, through independent declaration, cooperation with pharmaceutical companies and other ways, the company will further expand its overseas market territory, continue to cultivate the Asia-Pacific and European markets, and is expected to break into the North American market based on its accumulated strength. Overseas development will become one of the important driving forces for the company's sustainable growth.
Profit Forecast: the Company focuses on tumorAccurate medical treatmentMolecular diagnostic market segment, with the first batch of tumor associated diagnosis product lines certified by NMPA and EU CE, and nucleic acid molecular detection technologies with independent intellectual property rights (ADx-ARMS?, Super-ARMS?, ddCapture?, Handle?) It is one of the leading technologies in the field of cancer precision medicine in the world. With the huge demand for concomitant diagnosis caused by the clinical promotion of tumor-targeted drugs in China, and with the smooth progress of overseas clinical cooperation with multinational pharmaceutical companies, the company has a long-term growth prospect. We adjust the profit forecast that the EPS from 2020 to 2022 is 0.75,1.14,1.60 yuan respectively, corresponding to the stock price on July 2, 2020, the PE is 95.6X, 63.1X, 44.9X respectively, maintaining the "prudent overweight" rating.