Consumer Sentiment Holding On But Not For Long

消费者信心仍在，但不会持续太久

Business Today · 2025/07/21 16:19

RHB Investment Bank Bhd (RHB Research) has maintained a NEUTRAL call on the consumer products sector, while reaffirming BUY ratings on selected consumer counters. The analyst believes the sector continues to offer a defensive positioning amid global macroeconomic uncertainties, thanks to resilient domestic demand supported by stable employment and ongoing fiscal measures.

兴业银行投资银行（RHB Research）维持对消费品板块的中立评级，同时重申对部分消费品公司的买入评级。分析师认为，尽管全球经济不确定性持续存在，但得益于稳定的就业和持续的财政措施支持下的强劲国内需求，该板块仍具有防御性定位。

Despite this resilience, the house noted that consumer sentiment could face further pressure from persistent inflation and economic uncertainty driven by global trade tensions. Following a strong performance in the first quarter of 2025, which benefited from an earlier Aidilfitri season, retail players may see a moderation in growth numbers for the second quarter. Consumers are expected to remain cautious, focusing more on essential goods and value-based purchases while limiting discretionary spending.

尽管如此，该机构指出，由于持续的通货膨胀和由全球贸易紧张局势引发的经济不确定性，消费者情绪可能面临进一步的压力。在2025年第一季度因早到的 Aidilfitri 季节而表现强劲之后，零售商在第二季度的增长数字可能会有所放缓。预计消费者将保持谨慎，更多地关注必需品和基于价值的购买，同时限制非必要支出。

The house cautioned that retailers are bracing for more operational headwinds, with a combination of rising operating expenses such as the expanded sales and service tax (SST), higher electricity tariffs and increased EPF contributions for foreign workers. RHB Research doubted that retailers like AEON, Padini, Mynews and Focus Point would be able to fully pass these added costs on to consumers, given the elasticity of demand and the enforcement of anti-profiteering regulations. This, they said, could weigh on margins unless companies achieve meaningful operational efficiencies.

该机构警告说，零售商正准备应对更多的运营阻力，包括扩大的销售和服务税（SST）、更高的电费以及外籍工人的增加雇佣公积金缴纳。RHB Research 怀疑像 AEON、Padini、Mynews 和 Focus Point 这样的零售商是否能够将这些增加的成本完全转嫁给消费者，因为需求弹性以及反暴利法规的实施。他们表示，除非公司实现有意义的运营效率，否则这可能会对利润率造成压力。

In contrast, food manufacturers such as Nestlé, Farm Fresh and Power Root are expected to fare better. The analysts pointed to easing commodity prices and a strengthening ringgit as catalysts for improved margin outlooks for these producers in the coming quarters.

相比之下，食品制造商如 Nestlé、Farm Fresh 和 Power Root 预计会表现更好。分析师指出，商品价格的缓解和令吉的走强是这些生产商在未来几个季度改善利润率前景的催化剂。

Among its top picks, RHB Research reiterated preference for large-cap retailers with strong brand equity and dominant market positions. MRDIY and 99SMART were highlighted for their ability to absorb cost inflation due to their scale and operational efficiency. Farm Fresh was commended for its bold expansion into new dairy segments, while Guan Chong's forward sales and normalised production are seen to underpin a solid earnings trajectory. Focus Point, despite margin pressures, was also named as a top pick due to strong optical sales momentum driven by rising rates of myopia and proactive marketing efforts.

在其首选股中，RHB Research 重申了对拥有强大品牌权益和市场主导地位的大盘零售商的偏好。MRDIY 和 99SMART 被强调因其规模和运营效率能够吸收成本通胀。Farm Fresh 因其大胆进入新的乳制品领域而受到称赞，而 Guan Chong 的前向销售和正常化的生产被认为将支撑坚实的盈利轨迹。尽管面临利润率压力，Focus Point 也因其强劲的光学销售势头（受近视率上升和积极的营销努力推动）而被列为首选股。

RHB Research noted that downside risks to its view include a sharper-than-expected economic slowdown or a renewed spike in commodity prices, which could further disrupt cost structures and consumer sentiment.

RHB Research 指出，其观点的下行风险包括比预期更严重的经济放缓或商品价格再次飙升，这可能会进一步扰乱成本结构和消费者情绪。