Bitcoin Options show that due to rising geopolitical and economic uncertainty, traders are hedging against a price drop to levels of $100,000 or below.
According to Zhito Finance APP, data from Bitcoin Options Trading shows that as the geopolitical and economic growth uncertainties faced by global financial markets increase, traders are hedging against the risk of Bitcoin prices falling below 100,000 USD.
Following Israel's airstrikes on Iran, which led to a significant escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, a "safe-haven investment frenzy" has swept the globe once again, causing the prices of overvalued Stocks, high-yield CSI Enterprise bond Index, and risk assets like Cryptos to collectively fall. If the Federal Reserve emits a strong hawkish signal on Wednesday afternoon Eastern Time, it may trigger a sell-off test at the psychological threshold of 100,000 USD, while any degree of "believable de-escalation" in the Middle East geopolitical situation may serve as a significant catalyst for the upward movement of risk assets.
Statistics show that the "Put/Call Options Trading Volume Ratio" compiled by the cryptocurrency derivatives exchange Deribit surged to 2.17 in the last 24 hours, highlighting the market's strong inclination for protective bearish bets. Tracking Put Options for a specific cryptocurrency can provide holders with downside insurance to Sell at a specific price, with demand particularly strong for short-term Options. Among the options expiring on June 20, the Put Options with a strike price of 100,000 USD have the highest open interest, corresponding with a Put/Call ratio of 1.16, indicating market concerns over a recent drop in Bitcoin prices.
The world's largest Market Cap cryptocurrency—Bitcoin—previously set a historical high of 111,980 USD on May 22, having risen over 50% since Donald Trump was re-elected as President of the United States, openly supporting the development of Cryptos last November. As of Wednesday, Bitcoin is priced at 104,377 USD, with little change.
Put/Call ratio—Deribit derivatives platform's open interest of options categorized by strike price.
As Federal Reserve officials take a long-term wait-and-see approach in the face of a highly uncertain macro environment, market sentiment is becoming increasingly cautious amid geopolitical turbulence: the situation in the Middle East may spiral out of control, and the volatile energy prices combined with the Trump administration's global tariff policies exacerbate the risks faced by inflation and the labor market. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to hold steady on interest rates for the fourth consecutive time on Wednesday local time, and investors will pay attention to the latest forecasts from Federal Reserve officials regarding US economic growth, unemployment rates, and interest rate trends.
"If the Federal Reserve releases an unexpectedly hawkish signal, it will boost the USD exchange rates and may test the psychologically significant 0.1 million USD super threshold," wrote Javier Rodriguez-Alarcon, Chief Investment Officer of XBTO, in a report. "At the same time, the geopolitical situation remains uncertain, and any credible signs of easing tensions in the Middle East could become significant risk preference catalysts, while further deterioration could trigger a sharp decline in risk assets again."
Investors who are optimistic about Bitcoin's prospects generally believe that as the USD exchange rates continue to decline, Bitcoin, which has both a safe-haven attribute and reserve value, will surge to 0.2 million USD before the end of the year. Although the USD index rebounded slightly after the easing of tensions in China-US trade relations, more and more Wall Street investment institutions indicate that this rebound is merely temporary and emphasize that a potential multi-year "USD bear market" has just begun, sparked by the Trump administration's chaotic and disorderly "American economic transformation actions" that disrupt the global trading system.
In 2024, Standard Chartered, known for accurately predicting Bitcoin's unprecedented bull market curve, once again champions Bitcoin, forecasting that the price of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) will soar to the historical level of 0.2 million USD by the end of 2025 and predicts that Bitcoin will surge to 0.5 million USD before Trump officially leaves office in 2029.
