BankFinancial (BFIN-Free Report) is expected to deliver a year-over-year decline in earnings on lower revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2020. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This bank holding company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of -22.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $13.50 million, down 9% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 20% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts.
Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for BankFinancial?
For BankFinancial, the Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #3.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that BankFinancial will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that BankFinancial would post earnings of $0.22 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.22, delivering no surprise.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
BankFinancial doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
當BankFinancial公佈截至2020年3月的季度財報時,該公司預計將因收入下降而實現利潤同比下降。這一廣為人知的共識前景讓人們很好地瞭解了該公司的盈利狀況,但實際業績如何與這些預測相比,是一個可能影響其近期股價的有力因素。
如果這些關鍵數據高於即將發佈的盈利報告中的預期,該股可能會走高。另一方面,如果他們失手,股票可能會走低。
雖然當前價格變化的可持續性和未來的盈利預期將主要取決於管理層在盈利電話會議上對業務條件的討論,但有必要阻止每股收益出現積極驚喜的可能性。
Zack共識估計
這家銀行控股公司預計將在其即將發佈的報告中公佈每股0.17美元的季度收益,該報告的同比變化為-22.7%。
預計收入將達到1350萬美元,同比下降9%。
估計修正趨勢
在過去的30天裏,一致的每股收益預估被修正為20%,降至目前的水平。這在本質上反映了所涵蓋的分析人員如何集體地重新評估了這一期間的初步估計數。
投資者應記住,總變化可能並不總是反映每一位涵蓋分析師的估計修正方向。
價格、共識與每股收益驚喜
收入低語者
在一家公司公佈盈利之前,估計的修正將提供有關業績公佈期間的業務狀況的線索。我們專有的驚喜預測模型--Zack收益ESP(預期驚喜預測)--以這一洞察力為核心。
Zack收益ESP將最準確的預測與Zack對本季度的一致估計進行了比較;最準確的估計是Zack共識每股收益估計的最新版本。這裏的想法是,分析師在發佈財報前修正他們的估計,可能比他們和其他促成上述共識的人之前預測的信息更準確。
因此,正或負收益ESP讀數理論上表明實際收益可能偏離共識估計。然而,該模型的預測能力僅對正ESP讀數具有重要意義。
市盈率為正的ESP是一種盈利狀況的強預測指標,特別是當與ZackRank#1(強買入)、2(Buy)或3(持有)相結合時。我們的研究表明,股票與這種組合產生了積極的驚喜,近70%的時間,而一個堅實的ZackRank實際上增加了收益ESP的預測能力。
請注意,ESP讀數為負數並不意味着盈利不足。我們的研究表明,對於市盈率為負值、ESP讀數為負值和/或ZackRank為4(賣出)或5(強勢拋售)的股票而言,很難預測收益會有任何程度的下降。
銀行金融的數字是如何形成的?
對BankFinancial而言,最準確的估計與Zack的共識估計相同,這表明最近沒有分析師的觀點與人們認為得出一致估計的觀點不同。因此,ESP的收入為0%。
另一方面,目前該股票的ZackRank為#3。
因此,這一組合使得很難下結論地預測,BankFinancial將超過每股收益預期。
收益驚喜歷史有什麼線索嗎?
在計算一家公司未來收益的預期時,分析師通常會考慮它在多大程度上能夠與過去的普遍預期相符。因此,值得一看的意外歷史,衡量它的影響,即將到來的數字。
就上一季度報告而言,預計BankFinancial在實際產生0.22美元的收益時,每股收益將達到0.22美元,這並不令人意外。
在過去四個季度裏,該公司兩次超過每股收益預期。
底線
市盈率的高低不一定是股票漲跌的唯一依據。儘管由於其他令投資者失望的因素,許多股票的盈利受到了打擊,但最終還是出現了失地。同樣,不可預見的催化劑幫助一些股票上漲,儘管盈利不足。
儘管如此,押注於有望超過預期收益的股票確實增加了成功的機率。這就是為什麼在季度發佈前檢查一家公司的收益ESP和ZackRank的原因。確保利用我們的收益ESP過濾器,發現最好的股票購買或出售之前,他們已經報告。
BankFinancial似乎並不是一個引人注目的收益超過的候選人。然而,投資者也應注意其他因素,以便押注於這隻股票,或在其收益公佈前遠離它。