Analysts believe that Israel is attempting to limit its impact and chain reactions on the international market at least at this stage. Whether this "limited escalation" strategy can be sustained completely depends on the intensity of Iran's response.
The conflict between Israel and Iran has caused a major shock in the global market. On June 13 local time, Israel launched airstrikes on dozens of Iranian nuclear facilities and military targets, further escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, while Iran announced it would no longer participate in nuclear negotiations with the United States. On June 13, WTI Crude Oil in New York soared more than 14% before retreating, along with Gold and others.Safe haven AssetsThis clearly led to a sharp rise, while global stock markets collectively fell. By the close, crude oil prices had risen more than 7.5%, quoted at $73.18 per barrel, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2022. $United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$ Soared 6.89%, reaching a new high in five months.
At the beginning of today's Hong Kong stock market, oil and gas stocks surged across the board, $SHANDONG MOLONG (00568.HK)$ skyrocketing over 47%, $PETRO-KING (02178.HK)$ Increased by nearly 18%, $SINOPEC SSC (01033.HK)$ Increased by over 11%, $DALIPAL HLDG (01921.HK)$ 、 $CHINA OILFIELD (02883.HK)$ Wait for the increase.
On June 13, the conflict between Israel and Iran further deteriorated. In addition to attacking Iranian nuclear facilities and military installations, the Israeli military began bombing Iranian oil facilities and claimed to have assassinated more Iranian military officials and scientists. Iran fired over 200 missiles at Israel in one day, and the Israeli military stated that "the scale of the war will continue to expand in the coming days," planning attacks on US military bases in the Middle East.
According to comprehensive reports from "China Petroleum and Petrochemical", if Israel airstrikes Iranian facilities or the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, leading to a localized conflict, oil prices could spike significantly in the short term. If a direct military confrontation occurs between the US and Iran, resulting in a disruption of supplies in the Persian Gulf, oil prices could rise to even higher levels, and fluctuations would be entirely unpredictable.
Public data shows that Iran is the third largest oil producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and controls the core oil passage in the Middle East—the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for over 30% of global maritime oil trade.
Notably, according to CCTV News reports, on the 14th, two oil refineries in Bushehr Province, southern Iran, were hit by Israeli airstrikes. The No. 14 project facility of the South Pars Refinery exploded and caught fire, and the Fajr Jam Refinery was also attacked. Iran's Islamic Republic News Agency quoted officials from the Bushehr Province crisis management department stating that the fire at both facilities was brought under control by the evening of the 14th, and there were no reports of casualties.
This is the first direct attack by Israel on Iranian energy infrastructure and marks the first assault on Iranian oil refineries since the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. Analysts believe that Israel is trying to limit its impact on international markets and the chain reaction at least at this stage, and the sustainability of this "limited escalation" strategy completely depends on the intensity of Iran's response.
JPMorgan believes that if a larger-scale conflict erupts in the Middle East and leads to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, then Iran's daily export of 2.1 million barrels will be affected, and the crude oil market could face severe supply chaos. JPMorgan's chief commodity analyst Natasha Kaneva stated that if the conflict continues to escalate, the response in oil prices will see exponential growth, reaching price levels of $120-130 per barrel.
Charu Chanana, Chief Investment Strategist at Saxo Bank, stated: "If tensions in the Middle East escalate and supply risks become reality, oil prices could soar to $80; however, an increase in OPEC+ production may limit the rise and reignite concerns of oversupply in the fall." She added: "In the worst-case scenario, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz or a disruption of Iran's daily exports of 2.1 million barrels, the impact on global oil supply and inflation expectations could be severe."
CITIC SEC's research report stated that on June 13, Israel launched airstrikes on multiple targets related to Iran's nuclear program and other military facilities, leading to a rapid and substantial rise in oil and Gold prices, while prices of risk assets such as U.S. stocks fell. Previously, there had been mutual attacks between Israel and Iran in April and October 2024, but objectively speaking, given the sensitivity of the nuclear facilities, the intensity and duration of this conflict are expected to exceed last year's mutual attacks significantly. Future attention is needed on the range and intensity of Israel's attacks, Iran's retaliation, and the attitude of the Trump administration.
Editor/rice
