So far, every round of the Bitcoin cycle has ended with a parabolic rise phase. The monthly chart of Bitcoin shows that this parabolic upward phase may have already begun.
So far, every round of the Bitcoin cycle has ended with a parabolic rise phase. The monthly chart of Bitcoin shows that this parabolic upward phase may have already begun. Financial author David Zanoni has stated that the days in the Bitcoin halving cycle are relatively stable; in the previous two cycles, the time span from the bottom to the peak of Bitcoin's price was 1064 days, while the first cycle was slightly longer, lasting 1148 days. This cycle will not reach 1064 days until October 2025, so this round of rising market likely has more room for further increases. Recent price movements also confirm this possibility.
In this potential strong upward trend, investing in ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT.US) can easily profit from the rise in Bitcoin prices.
From the weekly chart of Bitcoin, the prices in April and May show a clear upward trend. The purple Relative Strength Index (RSI) line in the middle of the chart has broken above 50, indicating that a new upward trend has been established. The blue Exponential Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line below the chart is about to cross above the red signal line, further supporting this trend. The MACD histogram has changed from red to pink, and may soon turn green. Once the blue MACD line successfully crosses above the red signal line, and the histogram turns green, it will constitute a strong confirmation that a new upward trend has formed on the weekly chart.
$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ It seems to be breaking through a bullish flag pattern. From December 2024 to March 2025, Bitcoin has been in a consolidation phase, forming the flag portion of the flag pattern. The historical high of $0.109 million will be a key observation point. The price may test this level before breaking through, followed by a potential pullback.
The finalization of trade agreements may become a bullish factor driving the stock market up, which in turn may lead to an increase in Bitcoin prices. Once the USA reaches a substantial trade agreement with other countries, market uncertainty will be eliminated. A recent example is the agreement reached between the USA and the United Kingdom on May 8, 2025. Once the trade agreement is implemented, businesses will be able to make necessary adjustments as needed, promoting business development. In the future, once the trade agreement between China and the USA is finalized, it is likely to have a significant impact on the market.
In the coming months, another potential bullish factor is that the Federal Reserve may lower the federal funds rate. A decrease in interest rates will increase market liquidity, which will be bullish for both Bitcoin and the stock market. However, this expectation depends on inflation data in the coming months. The impact of tariffs may lead to persistently high inflation, reducing the likelihood of one or more rate cuts this year.
From the monthly chart of Bitcoin, the RSI Indicators can indicate the approximate Range where the price peaks. Typically, before the price reaches a peak, the RSI rises to extreme levels above 90. In the previous cycle, Bitcoin experienced a double-top pattern and formed a top divergence—while the price reached a new high, the RSI failed to achieve a new high simultaneously.
Currently, the RSI indicator on the Bitcoin monthly chart is slightly lower than the overbought level of 70. This indicates that before prices peak in this cycle, there is still substantial upward space for Bitcoin prices. While it cannot be guaranteed that this cycle will be exactly the same as past ones, there are indeed similar trends based on the current movements.
What happens in a parabolic upward phase?
During the parabolic upward phase of the Bitcoin halving cycle, the strongest rising trends often occur. This is the accelerated upward phase of the cycle, and the flagpole of the bullish flag pattern is formed during this period. This acceleration phase may last for about 6 months. If the duration of this cycle is similar to the previous two cycles, then April may be the starting month of this potential parabolic upward phase. If the rise continues for 6 months, it will extend until September 2025, which corresponds with the theory that this upward trend may end around October.
Zanoni still maintains that this round of Bitcoin's target price is 10 times the bottom price of the cycle, which is 10 times 0.015 million USD, estimating the peak price of this cycle to be around 0.15 million USD. This target is based on the 2.618 Fibonacci level and appears reasonable compared to the current price.
Conclusion
The price trend of Bitcoin in April and May appears to be Call, which may signify the beginning of a new strong upward momentum lasting several months. However, market trends are difficult to predict completely, and investors need to be aware that the price of Bitcoin may not be able to break through the historical high of 0.109 million USD. Nevertheless, once the price successfully stabilizes above this level, the likelihood of Bitcoin entering a parabolic uptrend and reaching the 0.15 million USD Target Price around October 2025 will greatly increase.
Editor/Rocky
