On May 9, Goldman Sachs released the latest data tracking of China's catering industry high-frequency indicators, showing that the listed companies covered showed mixed results in same-store sales growth in April.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that recently, the latest data tracking on the Chinese restaurant industry's high-frequency index released by Goldman Sachs shows that demand for food and beverage has declined under the influence of US tariffs, but takeout platforms have recently increased their subsidies to seize the market, which has contributed to an increase in takeout orders. During the Labor Day holiday, overall restaurant sales growth exceeded overall consumption growth (retail sales of key enterprises increased by 8.7%, while total retail sales increased by 6.3%). Goldman Sachs believes that in the future, categories that are more related to passenger traffic or takeout subsidies (such as ready-made drinks, fast food, and light meals) will benefit more.
On May 9, Goldman Sachs released the latest data tracking of China's catering industry high-frequency indicators, showing that the listed companies covered showed mixed results in same-store sales growth in April.
On the one hand, demand fluctuated due to market pessimism caused by the imposition of tariffs imposed by the United States.
On the other hand, takeout platforms have increased their subsidies, which has significantly boosted the growth of takeout sales, especially for ready-to-drink brands.
Specifically, Gu Ming's total product transaction value (GMV) has benefited from platform subsidies, and the single-store sales growth has further accelerated, and the base effect is also quite favorable; Nai Xue's ready-made drink business has achieved positive growth, mainly due to an increase in takeout orders, and the share of takeout orders on the JD platform is currently lower than that of Meituan. During the Labor Day holiday, overall restaurant sales growth exceeded overall consumption growth (retail sales of key enterprises increased by 8.7%, while total retail sales increased by 6.3%). Goldman Sachs believes that categories that are more related to passenger traffic or takeout subsidies (such as ready-made drinks, fast food, and light meals) benefit more. Gu Ming and Tea Baidao's dine-in and takeout businesses both achieved growth; during the Nai Xue holiday period, the average daily sales of single stores increased 20%, and takeout sales increased 77%. In terms of other brands, Haidilao's turnover rate was slightly better than the April level; the decline in same-store sales in Jiumaojiu narrowed significantly due to a lower base and holiday season impetus.
The performance of each brand is as follows:
Ancient tea (01364; buy):
Benefiting from a lower base (that is, last year was negatively affected by the “March 15” incident) and takeout platform subsidies, sales growth at Guming Single Store accelerated further year-on-year in April. The company's management reiterated its plan to accelerate store opening this year (guideline: net increase of 2,000 stores, total increase of 2,500 stores). The recent development of the takeout business has not changed this plan; management is confident in the potential to open stores. Currently, franchisees have shown strong interest, and preparations for opening the store are progressing smoothly. In terms of new products, Guming has launched a variety of cost-effective new products, including lemonade and Four Seasons Oolong tea, which help attract traffic. In terms of new categories, fruit and vegetable juice (pineapple juice and apple juice) and coffee (apple coffee) categories have been enriched, and it is planned to further expand the coffee product line in the next few months.
Goldman Sachs interpretation: Goldman Sachs has a positive attitude towards Gu Ming's steady same-store sales growth, thanks to its outstanding execution, successful product launch, and recent takeout subsidies. From 2025 to 2026, the base is still relatively low. Better sales and profit performance at the store level will also enhance franchisees' confidence in opening stores.
9 Mao 9 (09922; neutral):
During the Labor Day holiday, the decline in sales of Taiji and the same brand narrowed month-on-month, and sales growth during the holiday period was significantly stronger than last year. Taiji currently has 7 new stores in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The average turnover rate of new stores during the holiday season was about 7 times, which is far higher than the brand average.
Goldman Sachs interpretation: In the short term, same-store sales growth is still under pressure due to base figures, but Goldman Sachs is encouraged by the good performance of the new stores and the launch of the new store model. Performance after the holidays still requires continued attention.
