The National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.
Zhitong Finance APP learned that on April 30, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Logistics and Purchasing Union released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation. In April, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2%, respectively, continuing to remain in the expansion range.
The full text is as follows:
In April, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index saw a decline, while the non-manufacturing business activity index continued to stay in expansion.
——Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, interprets China's Purchasing Managers' Index for April 2025.
On April 30, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Logistics and Purchasing Union released China's Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.
In April, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index and the composite PMI output index were 50.4% and 50.2%, respectively, continuing to remain in the expansion range.
1. The Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector has declined.
In April, influenced by the high base from the previous rapid growth in manufacturing and the drastic changes in the external environment, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, falling below the critical point.
(1) There has been a slowdown in both production and demand. The production index and new order index were 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, decreasing by 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month; manufacturing production and market demand have both declined. By sector, the indices for agro-food processing, food and beverage refined tea, and pharmaceuticals are all above 53.0%, indicating a quick release of production and demand; sectors such as textiles, textile apparel, and Metal Products have seen their indices significantly decline, both falling below the critical point.
(2) High-tech manufacturing continues to improve. In key sectors, the high-tech manufacturing PMI was 51.5%, significantly above the overall level of manufacturing, with its production index and new order index both above 52.0%, demonstrating a sustained good development trend. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.6%, 49.4%, and 47.7%, respectively, decreasing by 2.4, 0.6, and 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting varying degrees of downturn in prosperity.
(3) Price indices have declined. Affected by insufficient market demand and the recent continued decline in prices of certain CSI Commodity Equity Index, the main raw material purchase price index and factory price index were 47.0% and 44.8%, respectively, falling by 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a general decline in market prices in manufacturing.
(4) The expectation index remains in expansion. The expected index for production and operational activities was 52.1%, continuing to stay in the expansion Range. Some enterprises in sectors such as food and beverage refined tea, Autos, Railroads, and aerospace equipment have a strong confidence in recent developments, with their expected indices for production and operational activities all above 58.0%, indicating a high prosperity Range.
2. The non-manufacturing business activity index continues to remain in expansion.
In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, still above the critical point, indicating that the non-manufacturing sector continues to maintain expansion.
(1) The service industry continues to show an expanding trend. The Business Activity Index for the service sector is 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from last month, still above the critical point. In terms of industries, the Business Activity Index for Aviation, Telecommunications Broadcasting - TV, Satellite Transmission Services, Internet Software, and Information Technology Services, and Insurance sectors are all above 55.0%, indicating a higher prosperous range, with rapid growth in total business volume; the Business Activity Index for Water Transportation and Capital Markets Services has fallen below the critical point. In terms of market expectations, the Business Activity Expectation Index is 56.4%, continuously remaining in a high prosperity range, with most service sector enterprises showing strong confidence in market development.
(2) The construction industry continues to expand. The Business Activity Index for the construction sector is 51.9%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from last month, still within the expansion range. Among them, the Business Activity Index for the civil engineering construction industry is 60.9%, an increase of 6.4 percentage points from last month, indicating that as various engineering projects proceed in an orderly manner, the progress of civil engineering construction has accelerated. In terms of market expectations, the Business Activity Expectation Index is 53.8%, and construction enterprises maintain an optimistic outlook for the recent market development.
3. The comprehensive PMI output index continues to remain in the expansion range.
In April, the comprehensive PMI output index is 50.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from last month, still above the critical point, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of enterprises in China continue to expand. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index that constitute the comprehensive PMI output index are 49.8% and 50.4% respectively.
Overall, the comprehensive PMI output index has remained above the critical point since January 2023, showing that China's overall economic output continues to expand, and the long-term positive fundamentals remain unchanged. Due to the sudden changes in the external environment and other factors, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell slightly in April, but related industries such as high-tech manufacturing continue to expand, and the overall production and operation of manufacturing enterprises focusing on domestic sales remain stable. From a global perspective, there are no winners in trade wars or tariff wars. Affected by increasing uncertainties in the trade environment, the prosperity of manufacturing in major economies is generally in a contraction range. The Purchasing Managers' Index for manufacturing in the USA released by the Institute for Supply Management in March is 49.0%, and the preliminary values for the April manufacturing PMI in the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Japan released by relevant institutions are all below the critical point. In the next stage, it is necessary to earnestly implement the spirit of the Central Political Bureau meeting held on April 25, coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and respond to uncertainties caused by the rapid changes in the external environment with the certainty of high-quality development.
Source of this article: National Bureau of Statistics; Edited by Zhitong Finance: Huang Xiaodong.
