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Canalys: It is expected that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functions in the China market will reach 62%.

Zhitong Finance ·  Apr 29 13:42

Canalys (now merged into Omdia) predicts that in 2025, the penetration rate of L2 level and above functions in the China market will reach 62%, a significant increase from 2024, with high-speed NOA and urban NOA reaching 10.8% and 9.9% respectively.

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, as the Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems (ADAS) technology continues to mature, Consumer expectations for driving assistance experiences in high-speed and urban commuting scenarios are rising. Level 2 high-speed NOA and urban NOA are accelerating penetration, leading to the replacement of front-view integrated machines with domain control solutions and driving the demand for mid-to-high computing power SoCs. Canalys (now merged into Omdia) predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of L2 and above functions in the China market will reach 62%, significantly higher than in 2024, with high-speed NOA and urban NOA reaching 10.8% and 9.9%, respectively.

Canalys predicts that between 2027 and 2028, the growth rate of urban NOA will surpass that of high-speed NOA, leading to rapid changes in market structure and reshaping the SoC competitive landscape. Based on current performance and pace, Qualcomm, with the Snapdragon Ride platform (including SoCs such as Snapdragon 8650, 8620, and 8775), has been ranked in the 'Champion Camp' of Canalys's Chinese ADAS SoC leadership matrix for two consecutive years due to its product performance and market implementation.

The popularization of driving assistance is accelerating: the market tends to be platform-oriented, balancing performance and cost optimally for SoC manufacturers.

Currently, an increasing number of OEMs are choosing to implement mid-to-high level ADAS functions in their core models priced between 0.1-0.2 million yuan in the process of promoting the popularization of driving assistance. To seize the initiative, mainstream OEMs represented by BYD (01211), Geely (00175), Chery, and Hongqi are adopting cross-platform driving assistance arrangement strategies, systematically launching ADAS solutions with clearly defined function levels and coherent configurations. They aim to achieve differentiated configurations based on the same or multiple SoC platforms, gradually promoting standardization of ADAS functions and steadily diffusing into mid-to-low-end models to meet the performance and cost balance demands of different price models.

This strategy imposes higher demands on the platform capabilities of SoC products, the efficiency of algorithm reuse, and end-to-end delivery capabilities. At the same time, the product iteration pace of OEMs is noticeably accelerating, with frequent launches of minor model updates to cope with market competition, which has led OEMs to impose stricter evaluation standards on SoC manufacturers regarding the completeness of their toolchains, the responsiveness of FAE (Field Application Engineer) services, and the strength of algorithm support.

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Therefore, platform capabilities and high-performance performance have become key elements in the competition among SoC suppliers. The Snapdragon Ride platform meets the diverse needs of automakers from models priced at 0.06 million yuan to flagship models, and its product planning reflects strong scalability. Products represented by the Snapdragon 8650 stand out in terms of inference per second (IPS) and DDR bandwidth usage, achieving an energy efficiency that is twice that of competitors.

Currently, Qualcomm is collaborating with several Chinese automobile brands and Tier-1 partners in the ADAS field, and the following capabilities have attracted the attention of many partners:

Algorithm adaptation and delivery efficiency advantages: The platform adopts a modular architecture design and a pre-integrated software ecosystem, reducing the algorithm verification cycle by approximately 40% in projects. According to feedback from ecosystem partners, Qualcomm has a team with rich local customer cooperation experience that can quickly respond to the rapid delivery needs of Chinese automakers. For example, a certain new force brand's project based on Qualcomm’s platform went from a fixed point to mass production in just 6 months.

Development toolchain and ecosystem completeness: The software toolchain of Qualcomm’s hardware platform has undergone several product iterations. Based on this, Qualcomm provides a multi-stage toolchain supporting data collection, model training, and deployment debugging, capable of parallel development across multiple operating systems (QNX/Android/Linux). Through Qualcomm's Hexagon NPU and end-side AI optimization tools, developers are assisted in efficiently adapting local core algorithms such as BEV and Occupancy.

Localization and customization capabilities: Through the approach of "Universal Platform + Modular Adjustment," Qualcomm adapts interfaces and algorithms based on market demands in China, supporting automakers in creating differentiated mass production solutions. During the window for accelerating the adoption of driving assistance, SoC manufacturers are gradually participating in the validation and optimization of vehicle solutions, supporting ecosystem partners with solution integration and value enhancement.

The era of integrated fuel and intelligence: The RBOB Gasoline market is becoming a new growth point for driving assistance.

Although new energy vehicles continue to penetrate and reshape market structures, RBOB Gasoline vehicles have not exited the market. In the high-end market above 0.4 million yuan and the mainstream price range of 10-0.2 million yuan, there remains a stable user base. Canalys (now part of Omdia) predicts that by 2025, the penetration rate of new energy will approach 60%, with annual sales of 13.5 million vehicles; by 2050, the RBOB Gasoline market will still maintain a market volume of around 8 million vehicles.

Joint venture brands and traditional RBOB Gasoline vehicle brands in China represented by Geely and Chery are gradually advancing the path of "intelligent fuel vehicles." The RBOB Gasoline vehicle market is once again becoming a potential focal point for the "second curve of growth in driving assistance."

The architecture of traditional RBOB Gasoline vehicles is mature, but the redundancy of onboard power is limited, making it more susceptible to heat dissipation and energy consumption constraints when equipped with ADAS systems. The passive cooling mechanism of the Snapdragon Ride platform adapts to the limited cooling conditions of RBOB Gasoline vehicles, helping to simplify system integration and control costs. Thanks to its collaborative foundation with traditional OEMs and its capabilities in the Global supply chain, Qualcomm is gradually expanding its application scope in the intelligent field of RBOB Gasoline vehicles.

From "dual domain control" to "one-chip": the trend of centralized E/E architecture is emerging.

As the architecture of Smart Automobiles continues to evolve, the differentiation among models at different price points in E/E architecture is becoming increasingly evident. Models priced above 0.2 million yuan generally adopt a dual control architecture for the cabin and driving, while models in the 10–0.2 million yuan Range are rapidly advancing integrated solutions such as cabin parking and driving parking combinations, balancing cost and experience. High cost-performance brands like Leap Motor (09863) are leading the way with the implementation of the ADAS + cabin dual Snapdragon SoC "One-box" solution, seizing the advantage with high integration and low system costs.

In the future, the Industry is evolving towards "One-chip"—a single chip carrying data processing tasks for the cabin, driving, and parking simultaneously, further compressing BOM costs, reducing system latency, and enhancing cross-domain data collaboration capabilities. However, this model also faces multiple challenges such as high development complexity, the lack of unified cross-domain standards, and high platform design thresholds.

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Qualcomm is actively promoting the technological evolution from "One-box" to "One-chip". With its comprehensive product layout covering the cabin, ADAS, and integrated cabin and driving parking, it has established a technical foundation for cross-domain integration. Relying on a unified toolchain, algorithms developed on the Snapdragon cabin or ADAS platform can be seamlessly migrated to the Snapdragon Ride Flex platform aimed at cabin and driving integration, helping to reduce the complexity and costs of cross-platform development. Qualcomm should continue to invest in its toolchain to improve the support for debugging and timing analysis across automotive operating systems, thereby effectively solving the cross-safety level collaborative workload and empowering the transition to an integrated architecture.

Racing to go global: Chinese OEMs need stronger globalization capabilities for support.

For Chinese OEMs, going global has shifted from being a supplement to sales to becoming a core strategy driving brand globalization, technological system restructuring, and product platform evolution. Chinese OEMs are undergoing profound capability reconstruction, including quickly understanding and responding to local demands, efficiently validating and adapting to various national requirements, and ensuring a consistent intelligent experience in the Global market.

Qualcomm is providing technical support aimed at the international market for Chinese OEMs through several dimensions:

Combining localized empowerment with global insights: Through local FAE teams in markets such as Europe, America, India, and Southeast Asia, Qualcomm can provide on-site technical support and rapid response services for Chinese OEMs. At the same time, leveraging its global business layout, it can offer Consumer demand insights and certification suggestions to customers.

Scalable Software and Hardware platform: Qualcomm's Smart Automobile cockpit and ADAS platform support Chinese OEMs to quickly adapt to multiple regions with the same technical architecture, reducing redundant development and validation costs, and enhancing global model development efficiency. For example, Qualcomm cooperates with Huizhou Desay SV Automotive to accelerate the deployment of ADAS in global models for Chinese OEMs through flexible adaptation of Software and Hardware.

Ecosystem integration and supply chain collaboration: Qualcomm has established extensive cooperation with Tier-1 suppliers, Software service providers, and cloud platforms globally, helping Chinese OEMs build intelligent operation systems that meet local requirements overseas.

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From the rapid growth of new force brands in Emerging Markets to the deep collaboration of traditional OEMs on global platforms, Qualcomm is playing an active role in supporting Chinese automotive brands going overseas by leveraging its technological accumulation and global ecological resources. With the increase in global demand for driving assistance, the importance of such cross-regional collaborative capabilities is expected to rise further.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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