The market generally expects that the Earnings Reports for Apple's second fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending March 2025), to be disclosed on May 1, will continue the growth trend.
According to Zhituo Finance APP, the market generally expects that Apple (AAPL.US) will continue its growth trend in the Earnings Reports for the second fiscal quarter of fiscal year 2025 (ending March 2025), which will be disclosed on May 1. This technology giant is expected to achieve an EPS of $1.60, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; revenue is expected to reach $93.56 billion, a 3.1% increase compared to the same period last year. Although the profit expectations themselves reflect market consensus, the short-term fluctuations in stock prices after the Earnings Reports are released may depend on the "result of the showdown" between actual data and market expectations.
If the core data exceeds market expectations, Apple stock prices may gain upward momentum; conversely, if it fails to meet profit or revenue targets, it may face downward pressure. It is worth noting that while the management's interpretation of the Business outlook in the Earnings Reports conference call will directly affect the market's assessment of Apple's long-term value, short-term stock price fluctuations still heavily depend on the performance of key Financial Indicators.
Looking back at past performance, Apple has exceeded market expectations for EPS for four consecutive quarters. In the most recent season (fiscal year 2025 first quarter), the company's actual EPS reached $2.40, above the market expectation of $2.36, surpassing expectations by 1.69%. This performance adds confidence to the upcoming earnings report.
However, past performance does not guarantee future results. Stock price fluctuations are not solely determined by whether earnings exceed expectations — even if the earnings report data is outstanding, if management provides conservative guidance for the next quarter or if the supply chain or demand side shows bearish signals, stock prices may still be under pressure; conversely, if the earnings report data is slightly disappointing but the company discloses breakthrough technological progress or significant collaborations, it may also trigger a rebound in stock prices.
For ordinary investors, two major factors need to be weighed before the earnings report is released: first is the likelihood of Apple continuing its better-than-expected performance, and second is the impact of potential risk events on valuations. Although current data suggests a high probability of earnings exceeding expectations, external variables such as the Trump administration's tariff policy and global Consumer Electronics demand fluctuations may still become "black swans."
Overall, the essence of Apple's earnings report season is a game between market expectations and actual data. Under the long-term narratives of the AI Hardware revolution and service business transformation, a single quarterly earnings report may not overturn the company's fundamentals, but short-term stock prices may still be difficult to escape the "digital curse." Investors need to find a balance between rational data and emotional fluctuations to grasp the true value signals amid the clamor of the earnings report season.
