This week's key agenda overview

• The first wave of "economic data reflecting tariff impact" from Europe and the USA will be released on Wednesday.

As tariffs come into effect, market focus has shifted from short-term fluctuations to fundamental verification: Are companies starting to cut back on investments? Is consumer confidence weakening? All of this will begin to show in the April PMI data, which may reveal the first "wound" on the global economy.

On Wednesday, the USA, eurozone, and United Kingdom will simultaneously release the preliminary values of April manufacturing and services PMI, which is seen as the first window to observe the extent of damage to business and consumer confidence. In particular, the input price index in the USA's manufacturing PMI is referred to by S&P Global as the "first stop" for measuring tariff inflation pressure. In March, this indicator rose to the fastest growth level in nearly two years, reflecting increasing cost pressures on businesses.

The manufacturing input price index in the USA is particularly noteworthy, possibly revealing the cost transmission following the implementation of tariffs. Regarding the eurozone PMI, closely monitor whether new export orders have started to weaken. Additionally, the USA will sequentially release a series of economic data, including March new home sales next Wednesday, followed by existing home sales, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims next Thursday, which will help provide a more comprehensive assessment of the actual impact of the trade shock.

• The Federal Reserve will release its economic conditions Beige Book, revealing the actual impact of uncertainty and tariff policies on regional economies.

As market expectations for interest rate cuts have been continually frustrated, the Federal Reserve is set to publish the latest national economic situation survey report (the "Beige Book") at 2:00 AM Beijing time on April 24. As a communication tool between the Federal Reserve and the market, the Beige Book's analysis of the current economic, employment, and inflation situation in the USA will further help the market assess the Federal Reserve’s policy stance, impacting expectations for future interest rate paths.

Analysts state that historically, the divergence between "soft data" and "hard data" in the USA is usually temporary, and over the long term, the two will gradually converge. Standing from the Federal Reserve's perspective, faced with deteriorating "soft data," it remains steadfast in choosing to hold still, perhaps waiting for a more objective and accurate verification from "hard data."

On one hand, from the perspective of "hard data", the economic situation in the USA still seems optimistic, as the statistical data has not shown significant deterioration, such as March's CPI and the overall stability of non-farm employment numbers. However, there has been a noticeable weakening in the "soft data", such as the declining month-on-month manufacturing and services PMI, and a significant drop in the consumer confidence index.

• A wave of earnings reports from Hong Kong and US stocks is coming! Growth Tech stocks Tesla and Google are taking the lead.

In the coming week, a large number of American companies will announce their performance, with over 120 S&P 500 Index companies set to release their earnings reports, which will test the stock market shaken by the US trade policy reforms. So far, the earnings season has progressed smoothly. Among the few S&P 500 companies that have reported to date, about 72% exceeded expectations.

Among them, next week can focus on the Post-Market Trading of US stocks. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$、 $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ / $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ 、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ In addition, $Boeing (BA.US)$ 、 $IBM Corp(IBM.US)$ 、 $Merck(MRK.US)$ and $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ Several other companies will also release their Earnings Reports next week.

In the Hong Kong stock market, $CHINA MOBILE(00941.HK)$ 、 $BYD Company Limited (01211.HK)$ 、 $Ping An Insurance (02318.HK)$ Important stocks will also announce their earnings.

• Global finance ministers and central bank governors gather in Washington for the IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings next week.

The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings will be held in Washington from April 21 to 26, bringing together finance ministers and central bank governors from around the Global.

Although job growth is one of the focuses of the meeting, there is no doubt that trade tensions and their impact on the Global economy will take center stage, with finance ministers and central bank governors from around the world seeking to meet with the Trump administration. How Trump views the future role of Washington in Institutions such as the IMF and World Bank may also become clearer.

One important agenda is that the IMF will release the "World Economic Outlook" next Tuesday. Previously, the IMF President forecasted that economic growth predictions would be "significantly" reduced, but there will not be a recession, while also raising inflation expectations for some countries. Some analysts believe that the IMF's predictions for economic growth are often overly optimistic.

• Hong Kong stocks and Australian stocks will be closed for Easter on Monday, while US stocks will open normally on Monday, and Australian stocks will be closed on Friday.

Due to Easter, the Hong Kong stock market, Hong Kong Stock Connect, and Australian stocks will be closed all day on Monday, while the U.S. stock market will operate normally. Additionally, due to ANZAC Day, Australian stocks will be closed all day on Friday.

Key earnings calendar for the new week.

April 21, Monday

Keywords: China LPR, State Council Information Office press conference, U.S. March Conference Board Leading Indicators.

On Monday, in terms of economic data, at 9:00 AM China will announce the one-year and five-year Loan Market Quote Rates as of April 21; the USA's March Conference Board Leading Economic Index month-on-month will be released at 22:00.

Regarding financial events, at 15:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference concerning the "Comprehensive Pilot Work Plan for Accelerating the Expansion of the Service Industry's Opening Up"; at 20:30, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will be interviewed by CNBC.

Regarding Earnings Reports, the US stock market $WR Berkley(WRB.US)$ 、 $Medpace(MEDP.US)$ 、 $Zions Bancorp(ZION.US)$ Will publish performance after market close; regarding the Hong Kong stocks, $ZHAOJIN MINING(01818.HK)$ Performance will be released on Monday.

April 22, Tuesday

Keywords: Tesla performance, IMF "World Economic Outlook" report

In terms of financial data, the U.S. April Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index will be announced at 22:00.

In terms of financial events, at 21:00, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson will speak at the Economic Liquidity Summit, while the IMF will release the "World Economic Outlook" report; at 21:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will speak at the Economic Liquidity Summit; on the following day at 2:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will deliver a speech.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $GE Aviation (GE.US)$ 、 $Lockheed Martin (LMT.US)$ 、 $Verizon(VZ.US)$ 、 $3M(MMM.US)$ Performance will be announced during Pre-Market Trading; during Post-Market Trading. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ 、 $SAP SE(SAP.US)$ Performance will be announced. In the Hong Kong stock market, $ZTE (00763.HK)$ will release its performance.

April 23, Wednesday

Keywords: USA April S&P Global PMI, March new home sales total; Boeing, IBM earnings

In terms of financial data, the preliminary value of the USA April S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released at 21:45; at 22:00, the annualized total of USA March new home sales will be announced, followed by the EIA Crude Oil Stocks and Strategic Petroleum Reserve Stocks for the week ending April 18 at 22:30.

In financial events, at 21:00, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will deliver an opening speech at an event; at 21:30, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Bullard along with Fed Governor Waller will also give opening remarks at an event; at 2:00 AM the next day, the Fed will release the Beige Book on economic conditions.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $Boeing (BA.US)$ 、 $AT&T(T.US)$ 、 $Boston Scientific(BSX.US)$ 、 $Thermo Fisher Scientific(TMO.US)$ Earnings will be released during Pre-Market Trading; after Post-Market Trading, $IBM Corp(IBM.US)$ 、 $Texas Instruments (TXN.US)$ Earnings will also be released. The Hong Kong stock market $CGN POWER (01816.HK)$ will also release earnings on Wednesday.

April 24, Thursday

Keywords: Alphabet, Intel earnings, Federal Reserve Economic Conditions Beige Book, USA unemployment claims, total existing home sales in the USA for March.

In terms of economic data, the number of initial unemployment claims in the USA for the week ending April 19 will be released at 20:30; the total existing home sales in the USA for March annualized will be released at 22:00; the EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending April 18 will be released at 22:30.

In terms of financial events, at 2:00 AM, the Federal Reserve will release the Economic Conditions Beige Book; at 6:30 AM, 2026 FOMC voting member, Cleveland Fed President Mester will speak; at 5:00 AM the next day, 2026 FOMC voting member, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $Merck(MRK.US)$ 、 $Procter & Gamble (PG.US)$ 、 $PepsiCo (PEP.US)$ 、 $American Airlines (AAL.US)$ will release earnings in Pre-Market Trading, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ / $Alphabet-C(GOOG.US)$ 、 $Intel (INTC.US)$ 、 $T-Mobile US(TMUS.US)$ The performance will be released after Post-Market Trading in the USA. Regarding the Hong Kong stock market,$Aluminum Corporation Of China (02600.HK)$ performance will also be released.

April 25, Friday

Keywords: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, one-year inflation rate expectations

In terms of financial data, the final value of the Michigan University Consumer Confidence Index for April and the final value of the one-year inflation expectation for April will be announced at 22:00.

In terms of financial events, at 5:00 AM, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari will deliver a speech.

In terms of Earnings Reports, $Ping An Insurance (02318.HK)$ 、 $CHINA TELECOM(00728.HK)$ 、 $BYD Company Limited (01211.HK)$ 、 $Guangzhou Automobile Group (02238.HK)$ Hong Kong stocks are set to release earnings on Friday. As for US stocks, $AbbVie(ABBV.US)$ 、 $HCA Healthcare (HCA.US)$ 、 $Colgate-Palmolive(CL.US)$ 、 $Schlumberger (SLB.US)$ Performance will be released during Pre-Market Trading.

Regarding the market closure, due to ANZAC Day, the Australian stock market will be closed all day.

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In the new week, wishing mooers smooth investments!

Editor/Rocky