Ming-Chi Kuo pointed out that, $Apple (AAPL.US)$ Since the Lunar New Year this year, preparations for the USA market have begun, with inventory currently exceeding 2 months, so tariffs have almost no impact on sales in the USA market for Q2 2025. However, for the supply chain, pulling inventory in advance may lead to a more significant decline in shipments during the transition period between old and new iPhone models compared to previous years. The import tariff on iPhones has dropped from 145% to the original 20%, which superficially helps alleviate market sentiment, but in reality, this remains a significant pressure for Apple; otherwise, Apple would not have started stocking up for the USA market after the Lunar New Year.
USA policy and Homeland Security Advisor Deputy Director Stephen Miller pointed out the original 20% tariff under the IEEPA on China. Ming-Chi Kuo indicated that the strength of the USA's tariff against China has weakened, but three potential tariff items still need attention regarding whether they will come to fruition and what their contents would be, including a 20% tax on fentanyl; the White House's tariff update statement on April 11, which became a formal executive order concerning reciprocal tariffs; and semiconductor tariffs. A key factor affecting these three potential tariff items recently has been whether China has reached out to President Trump.
Ming-Chi Kuo continued to point out that the Chinese production line responsible for manufacturing the USA iPhone models is still offline, which means the plan to completely produce and export iPhone models to the USA from India starting Q2 2025 remains unchanged. However, production is dynamic, and this aspect needs continuous observation.
Ming-Chi Kuo stated that the unpredictable tariff stance of the Trump administration is the biggest uncertainty regarding iPhone supply in recent times. However, while tariff changes may temporarily affect stock prices, the medium to long-term investment trend will still depend on how Apple prepares for geopolitical risks, the competitiveness of the iPhone, and the overall economy.
Editor/Rocky
