作为市场抛售期间的避风港，美元这次并未像往常一样上涨。相反美元也在下跌，并且速度很快，热钱涌入黄金、日元、欧洲股票——几乎所有地方，除了美国，这很不寻常而且很有说服力。
As a safe haven during the market sell-off, the dollar did not rise this time as usual. On the contrary, the dollar is also falling, and quite rapidly, with hot money flooding into Gold, the yen, and European Stocks — almost everywhere except the USA. The only explanation for this turbulence is — Trump, as speculators began to short the dollar in March out of concern that Trump's policies could lead the USA into recession.
Trump's policies are impacting the Global market, and the USD, which has long been regarded as a safe haven, is now unusually declining, raising concerns in the market.
According to media reports on Saturday, Federated Hermes fund manager John Sidawi noticed a strange phenomenon:
This time, the USD has not risen as usual during the market sell-off. On the contrary, the USD is also falling rapidly, with hot money pouring into Gold, Yen, European Stocks—almost everywhere except the USA, which is unusual and compelling.
The only explanation behind this turmoil is Trump. In just two months of his second term, his escalating tariff measures and initiatives aimed at reversing globalization are shaking confidence in the USD. The USD has been at the core of the world financial system for the past eighty years.
In the past three months, the USD has declined against almost all currencies except for 31 major currencies. The Bloomberg USD index has dropped nearly 3%, marking the worst start since 2017. Meanwhile, the price of Gold as an alternative safe haven asset has soared to a historic high of over $3000 per ounce.
By mid-March, due to concerns that Trump's policy shifts could lead the USA into recession, speculators began shorting the USD for the first time since Trump's election.
With Trump's policies impacting the situation, the Global reliance on the USD is decreasing.
Although the recent decline has not significantly eroded the strength of the USD, considering that it has risen significantly due to the strong economy and rising interest rates in the USA, if concerns over a slowdown in the Global economy lead to overseas investors flocking to USA Treasury bonds, the USD could rebound. Moreover, as there are no significant alternatives, the USD remains the world's primary currency, used for most central bank reserves and purchasing CSI Commodity Equity Index such as oil.
Carmen Reinhart, a professor at Harvard University and former chief economist of the World Bank, stated that the rise and fall of currencies will not change because of a president who fully strives to strangle globalization. The USD replacing the British Pound as a reserve currency is not something that happens overnight.
However, Trump's actions are reigniting discussions about whether overseas governments will accelerate efforts to reduce reliance on the USD. In Europe, leaders see this as an opportunity to strengthen the Euro's role by creating a more integrated and liquid market, allowing the common currency to compete better with the USD. In developing countries, a few nations have intermittently proposed the idea of coming together to challenge USD hegemony.
Editor/rice
Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
Comment(6)
Reason For Report