事实上，美国的加税措施或对中国汽车行业影响不大。根据相关数据，中国对美汽车整车出口占比不足4%，关税政策对直接出口业务冲击较小。
① What percentage of Chinese auto companies' direct exports go to the USA? Can it cushion the potential impact of increased tariffs? ② The short sell ratio of Hong Kong auto stocks has significantly decreased. Does this reflect the market's expectation adjustment after excessive worries about the tariff policy?
On March 26, USA President Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on imported Autos, which will take effect on April 2. In contrast to the sharp fluctuations in stock prices of major exporting countries, the Hong Kong stock market's Autos Sector performed steadily.
As of the time of writing,$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$Increased by over 1%,$LI AUTO-W (02015.HK)$Slightly increased,$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$Slight decline.
In fact, the tax increase measures may have little impact on China's auto industry. According to related data, the proportion of China's total auto exports to the USA is less than 4%, making the impact of the tariff policy on direct export business relatively small.
For instance, although the market expansion plans of auto companies like BYD and Geely in the USA may be delayed, their core revenues still rely on the domestic market and other export regions such as Europe and Southeast Asia. This structural layout dilutes the direct impact of the tariff policy on the fundamentals.
At the same time, domestic demand for Electric Vehicles is strong. On January 13, the China Automotive Industry Association held a communication meeting and released the latest Statistics, showing growth in key data for China's autos and Electric Vehicles in 2024. Among these, the production and sales of Electric Vehicles in 2024 both exceeded 12.8 million units, maintaining the number one position globally for ten consecutive years. The penetration rate of Electric Vehicles in China in 2024 (the ratio of new Electric Vehicle sales to total new auto sales) reached 40.9%.
Market sentiment and short selling data reflect expectation adjustments.
According to yesterday's data from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the short sell data for Li Auto-W, $XPENG-W (09868.HK)$and other auto stocks has declined. However, BYD's data has shown a slight increase.
Taking LI AUTO as an example, the company's Short Sell shares dropped from 8.56 million shares on the 25th to 3.9565 million shares yesterday, while the Short Sell ratio decreased from 41.69 to 36.02%.
Taking XIAOPENG MOTOR as an example, the company's Short Sell shares fell from 10.4317 million shares on the 25th to 3.9199 million shares yesterday, and the Short Sell ratio decreased from 25.29 to 17.74%.
Taking GEELY AUTO as an example, the company's Short Sell shares decreased from 25.838 million shares on the 25th to 6.847 million shares yesterday, while the Short Sell ratio dropped from 22.21% to 7.51%.
$LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK)$For example, the company's Short Sell shares decreased from 1.875 million shares on the 25th to 1.041 million shares yesterday, while the Short Sell ratio dropped from 17.62% to 8.65%.
Taking BYD COMPANY as an example, the company's Short Sell shares increased from 4.189 million shares on the 25th to 4.219 million shares yesterday, while the Short Sell ratio went up from 27.08% to 33.89%.
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Today, after hitting the high near 24,000 in the early session and entering bearish positions, the index fell sharply by nearly over 600 points, immediately recouping yesterday's losses significantly.
Moreover, today it broke the new high again, reaching a maximum of 24,076, but by the end of the market, it fell back by about 70 points, producing a bearish candle. The current trend has not yet been broken, but from the previous low until now, it has risen close to 6,000 points. It is believed that those with positions can continue to hold until there is a clear trend reversal for profit-taking. Those without positions can wait for a pullback to get in. Actually, it is hoped for a quick pullback, as it allows for entry and also provides a healthy breath.
Currently, the outlook remains the same as before. It is believed that even if there is a pullback, it shouldn't be too deep. However, if Futures fail to stabilize and close below 22,350, there may still be room for decline. The chance of Futures falling below 21,400 in the short term should be low, so it is considered that if a significant pullback occurs, it presents a good opportunity to incrementally go long. Recently, there has been a consistent approach to not hold positions overnight, only focusing on immediate trades, as there is no high chasing and no casual short selling.
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