According to Zhito Finance APP, a prominent bullish figure in the Copper market predicts that copper prices will reach historic highs once again. Amid threats from Donald Trump to impose additional tariffs leading to a reduction in global copper inventories, Pinta, who is in charge of metal business at Mercuria Energy, believes this will create unprecedented trading profit opportunities.

Costas Pintas built the copper trading business of the Trafigura Group into the largest in the world during his tenure, making him one of the most well-known metal traders until his departure at the end of 2023. He now calls for copper prices to soar to historic highs, rising by as much as one-third from current levels.

In an interview, Pintas stated that large quantities of metal flowing into the USA would create a severe shortage crisis for other parts of the world, particularly the largest consumer, China. He said: "We think there are some unusual things happening in the copper market. Isn't it unreasonable to expect copper prices to reach 0.012 million dollars or 0.013 million dollars? It's hard for me to give a precise figure since this situation has never occurred before."

More and more traders and investors predict that the copper market will enter a multi-year bull market after the pandemic, with electrification demand growth exceeding supply growth, and Pintas is one of the first to express such views. At Mercuria, he worked with another bullish figure: former Goldman Sachs metal strategist Nick Snowden, who predicted about a year ago that the average copper price would reach 0.015 million dollars per ton by 2025.

However, copper bulls have been repeatedly disappointed. The most recent instance was last year when copper prices surged above 0.011 million dollars per ton to reach a historic high, but as Chinese buyers exited the market, the prices subsequently fell sharply.

Today, the market turmoil caused by Trump's threat to impose copper tariffs has changed the market landscape. Although the USA has not yet fully imposed tariffs on copper imports, domestic prices have already exceeded world prices by more than 1400 dollars per ton, greatly stimulating traders to transport every surplus ton of copper to the USA.

Pintas stated: "In terms of profit per ton, I have never seen a better trading opportunity than this." Pintas indicated that the inventory transfer to the USA means that the Chinese copper market will face a shortage of inventory. Buyers from China, which account for more than half of global demand, will be forced to compete with the USA market. Meanwhile, the substantial amount of scrap copper that typically flows out of the USA has actually been exhausted.

Pintas said: "Historically, China has always succeeded in resisting high prices. This is the first time in recent years that another market has taken a significant share from the Chinese market. That is why this is an unknown territory."

Mocri estimates that about 0.5 million tons of copper are being transported to the USA, most of which are already in transit. In comparison, the normal monthly import volume for the USA is about 0.07 million tons. Traders are transporting metals to speculate on the significant price differences, and also to complete planned shipments ahead of potential tariff implementations for customs clearance.

Mocri itself has 0.085 million to 0.09 million tons of copper on the way to the USA. Bloomberg previously reported that some traders have redirected shipments originally destined for Asian clients to the USA.

It is not only Pintas who is bullish on copper prices. According to exchange data, investment funds have increased their net long positions in copper at the London Metal Exchange (LME) to the highest level since May of last year. David Lilley, CEO of hedge fund Drakewood Capital Management, predicts that copper flowing to the USA will leave Chinese buyers facing 'more intense competition for metals.'

Global copper prices have risen significantly, with the benchmark copper price at the London Metal Exchange increasing by 12% this year, reaching $9,855.50 per ton last Friday, while due to tariff threats, the USA Futures copper price at COMEX is close to historical highs.

The global market has shown some signs of supply tightening, but has not yet reached the extreme shortage predicted by Pintas. In Shanghai.Futures TradingCopper prices are in the largest spot backwardation seen in more than a year, with recent contract prices exceeding those of forward contracts, indicating supply tightness. Since the end of February, China's copper premium has been rising, though it remains at moderate levels by historical standards.

Of course, if the concerns about a trade war leading to a global economic slowdown become a reality, then predictions of soaring copper prices may fall short.

Mokrui does not worry about this risk, as the company expects global copper demand to exceed supply by 320,000 tons this year, coupled with inventory moving to the USA, likely depleting significant stockpiles outside the USA.

Furthermore, the threat of tariffs has led to the depletion of U.S. scrap copper exports. About one-third of global copper production comes from scrap, and the flow of scrap typically serves as a market buffer, increasing when prices are high and decreasing when prices are low.

Mokrui's head of metal research, Snowden, said: "As of February, U.S. scrap copper exports have dropped to negligible levels. Through the scrap channel, the global copper market is undergoing an impact that has not yet been fully recognized."